Breakout Fantasy Football Running Backs From The 2024 Season - Part I

With the 2024 fantasy football season in the rearview mirror, now is a good time to review what happened, what we learned, and who broke out. We'll kick off this series with a two-part entry on the six running backs that broke out this past season. Future entries will focus on the receiver, tight end, and quarterback position.

First, we must define what a breakout is. For this series, there will be two criteria a player can meet to qualify for breakout status. The first is a player who solidly outplays their ADP and preseason expectations. This is that preseason running back who was ranked at RB46 but finished as RB15. The second is a player who significantly increases their stat line in a way they hadn't previously done. This is a player who averaged 1,000 yards rushing for two seasons and then breaks out for 1,600.

These two different definitions will enable us to identify various kinds of breakouts. Sign up for our Premium membership to take your fantasy game to a new level. This subscription includes additional tools, articles, and engagement from our fantastic team. Please use "BOOM" at checkout to receive a 10% discount.

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J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

There's no denying that Dobbins has already produced a season similar to the one he did in 2024. This past season, he had 905 rushing yards, 100 more than his rookie year (805). That year, he finished with 925 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns.

This year, he had 1,058 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns. However, that rookie season was back in 2020. Since then, he has sustained two significant injuries. The first was when he tore his ACL, LCL, meniscus, and hamstring in 2021. The second was when he tore his Achilles in 2023.

There's a strong argument that Dobbins isn't the same player he was during his rookie season. How could he be considering the injuries he experienced? That's what makes what he did in 2024 "breakout" worthy. Not to mention, he was drafted as the RB43 and finished as the RB23 in overall points and RB17 in half-PPR PPG. This certainly qualifies as significantly outplaying his preseason expectations and ADP.

Dobbins was signed as an afterthought for the Chargers this past offseason. Some thought Gus Edwards would be the lead back due to his history with Greg Roman, and others thought it'd be rookie Kimani Vidal.

In the end, however, Dobbins was the one who finished on top, and he played really well. Forty-six running backs had at least 100 carries. Check out what Dobbins did last year. You might be surprised at just how good he really was.

• 10th in Rushing Yards Per Game (69.6)
• 13th in Yards Per Carry (4.64)
• 17th in Explosive Run Rate (5.1%)
• 27th in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (15%)
• 28th in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (2.37)
• 17th in Half-PPR PPG (13.5)
• 18th in Expected Half-PPR PPG (14.0)

If you were lucky enough to have drafted Dobbins in the later rounds as your RB4 or even RB5, you had a massive positive return on investment. He's a free agent this offseason, so fantasy managers will need to track where Dobbins ends up because it could drastically affect his 2025 fantasy value.

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

Dowdle was a rookie in 2020 and had seven carries for 24 yards. He wasn't on an NFL 53-man roster in 2021. Then, in 2022-2023, he had 89 carries for 361 yards.

We're talking about a player who, from 2020-2023, had 385 total rushing yards in four years. Despite the Cowboys going into the 2024 season with a depleted backfield that included Ezekiel Elliott, fantasy managers still couldn't get fully on board with Dowdle. Considering what he had - or rather hadn't done - the last four years, it's understandable fantasy managers were cautious.

He was drafted as the RB44 but finished as the RB23 in half-PPR PPG and RB22 in total half-PPR points. He was drafted as an RB4 but provided fantasy managers with an RB2. Dowdle qualifies for both of our breakout criteria. He significantly outplayed his ADP, and his 2024 season was like nothing we've ever seen from Dowdle before.

After not having more than 400 rushing years in four combined years, Dowdle was one of just 16 running backs to rush for 1,000 yards this season.

He wasn't just a pure volume rusher, either. Only 38.3% of his carries were considered "stuffs." Stuffs are defined as any run that doesn't go for a touchdown, first down, at least four years on first down, or three yards on any other down. His 38.3% ranked fifth-lowest among 46 running backs with 100 carries.

Highest % of carries with 3+ yards after contact in 2024 (min. 150 carries):

1. Rico Dowdle (51%)
2. Bucky Irving (48.8%)
3. Derrick Henry (48.6%)
4. Chuba Hubbard (48.4%)
...
28. De'Von Achane (35%)
29. D'Andre Swift (34%)
30. James Cook (32%)
31. Jonathan Taylor (31%)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 17, 2025

He also ranked 12th in yards after contact per attempt (2.64). It's vital to know Dallas didn't immediately lean into the Dowdle experience. For the first six weeks of the season, they continued to utilize Elliott as a running back by committee.

The Cowboys had a Week 7 bye, and Dowdle missed Week 8, but from Weeks 9-18, they utilized Dowdle as a true bellcow. He became a three-down back and made the Cowboys look like geniuses for doing so. Check out his splits below.

Like Dobbins, Dowdle is a free agent this offseason. The Cowboys have some significant holes to fill, and there are reports they could be interested in drafting one of the upper-tier running backs in this year's draft in either the first or second round.

Dowdle's 2025 value could be a wild ride. We'll have to wait to see what the Cowboys do in free agency and the draft to determine if Dowdle is a viable option this upcoming season.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Brown is arguably the most significant breakout running back of the 2024 season. He was just a rookie last year, and Cincinnati had Joe Mixon, so he was used sparingly. He averaged just 28 scrimmage yards and 4.8 touches per game in 2023.

His 2024 season couldn't have been more different. He averaged 17.7 touches and 84.4 scrimmage yards per game. The vast difference between those two averages does not tell the whole story because Brown didn't even become the guy for Cincinnati in 2024 until midway through the year.

Brown was drafted as the RB37 this past offseason. From Weeks 1-3, Brown was the RB50, averaging just 4.9 half-PPR PPG. Teammate Zack Moss hurt his ankle in Week 4. This is when we started to see Brown's breakout season come to light, but it wasn't until Week 9 that Brown's breakout season went to a whole new level.

Moss was put on IR after Week 8, setting the stage for Brown to become Cincy's undisputed No. 1 running back, and he responded in a big way. Check out his splits from these three time periods below.

Brown's second-half per game averages (Weeks 9-17) put him on pace for 1,341 rushing yards, 94 targets, 81 receptions, 635 receiving yards, and 12 total touchdowns. From Weeks 4-17 (13 total games for Brown), he finished as a weekly top-12 running back eight times (61.5%).

He finished as a top-5 running back in five of the 13 games since Week 4 (38.4%). For the year, Brown finished as the RB16 (14.3 half-PPR PPG), but from Weeks 4-17, he averaged 16.4 half-PPR PPG, which would have been RB8. From Weeks 9-17, his 18.3 half-PPR PPG (18.3) would have been RB3, tied with Jahmyr Gibbs.

Moss is scheduled to return to the Bengals after signing a two-year contract last offseason. The Bengals could cut him, but this team has significant holes in defense and the offensive line.

Brown is just a fifth-round pick, and these kinds of players are prone to being replaced or having additional competition brought in, but Cincinnati is unlikely to be a team that has that luxury. While they have significant cash available, they have Trey Hendrickson, Ja'Marr Chase, and potentially Tee Higgins, who need new contracts.

After extending whoever they wish to, they'll likely use the rest of their resources to improve their defense and offensive line. Assuming this logic stands up, Brown should be set to reprise his role as the lead back for the Cincinnati offense in 2025.

With Moss's return, his role will likely be smaller than it was in Weeks 9-17, but given how explosive and effective he was, it'll be hard for the team to ignore his production. He's locked into a top-10 running back ranking as long as the current status quo holds.

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