RADIO
Tom Kim! He has done it again, winning in back-to-back regular season starts. What an incredible performance from the youngster, who plays with poised passion that makes him incredibly easy to cheer for. He went bogey free all week and announced that he is going to be a contender on the PGA Tour for some time!
Patty Ice turned into a Patty Puddle on the final hole of the event, hooking a 3-wood into a bush off the tee, rendering his next shot unplayable even though he attempted to try get it back on the fairway. As always, he was gracious in defeat and with as many times Cantlay puts himself in contention to win events, it is not surprising to see him stumble down the stretch once or twice.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Course Breakdown and Key Stats
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club: Par: 70, Yardage: 7,041, Grass: Bent
With no historic strokes gained data available to us over the last two times they have played here, it is tough to determine what statistics are going to play a pivotal role in determining the 2022 ZOZO champion. When in doubt, lean on strokes gained approach, which just about covers half of the total stats used. We should see about half the shots come from 150-225 yards.
With winning scores anticipated to be around the -10 mark, we are going to lean a little on bogey avoidance and scoring on medium courses (where the top 5 averaged between -15 and -10). This course should reward great ball strikers and the 20% of total driving gets ball striking metrics to 65% in the model.
Below are the settings for the model:
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. With Tom Kim and Cameron Smith taking care of four of our five wins this year, it has been much easier to break even. The top of the board never really provided much value this week as the two best players in the model are currently 10-1 and 8.5-1, which is single bullet range. We took our chances on 5 quality ball strikers who have shown some promise in overall form recently.
Mito Pereira ($3.65 @ +3500 on DraftKings)
After lapping the field in the ball striking department last week at the Shriners, Mito Pereira heads to the ZOZO having gained +1.89 strokes on the next best approach player. He also lead in the ball striking department despite losing fractionally off the tee. If his driver can gain him a stroke or two and his putter behaves itself, we should see Mito going to toe-to-toe with an unlucky soul on Sunday.
Scott Stallings ($2.87 @ +4500 on DraftKings)
If we remove the atrocity that was the Tour Championship, Scott Stallings enters the week having averaged the second most total strokes over a six-start span. He has been striking the ball tremendously, ranking in the top 10 in that department in those six starts. His game has improved to the point where he has gained no less than +0.3 strokes in any of the four major stat categories. If he continues to water the seeds of hard work and consistency, a victory could sprout in Japan.
Emiliano Grillo ($1.99 @ +6600 on BetMGM)
At this point, betting on Emiliano Grillo almost feels like a waste of money, but his odds keep on getting better and has gained the 2nd most total strokes over his last seven starts. His recent form is stellar, his ball striking comes and goes, but when it comes, he finds himself at the top of the leaderboard with a putter that has averaged three-quarters of a stroke per round. We are not declining the invitation to a Grillo BBQ just yet.
Sepp Straka ($2.59 @ +5000 on DraftKings)
In Sepp Straka's last four starts he has finished 2nd, T28, T7, 2nd. Both his second-place finishes were playoff losses. His approach play seems to have bounced back after an abysmal stretch of missed cuts. He seems to have found some form recently and these odds for someone who is playing very good golf, would not be in the 50-1 ballpark had he won one of those playoffs. It turns out that Japan does not have Diet Coke, so if he wants to celebrate his win in Japan with his favorite beverage, he is going to have to bring his own along with him.
Matthew NeSmith ($1.89 @ +7000 on DraftKings)
Matthew NeSmith enters the week with a pair of top-10 finishes in his last two starts, averaging +1.57 strokes on approach over those eight glorious rounds, which is second-best in the field. His robotic approach play seems to have returned and it has brough with it a putter that has complimented his game to the tune of two top-10 finishes in his last two starts. Heading to a ball striker's paradise, if NeSmith can continue to pound fairways and greens, he should find himself at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
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Placings
Last week we went 0-4 on our placing bets. All four players made the cut, but decided to take the weekend off, losing -8.88 strokes between the four of them over the weekend.
- Thomas Detry (T20: $10 @ +200 on DraftKings): T69 -$10
- Emiliano Grillo (T20: $10 @ +200 on DraftKings): T73 -$10
- Taylor Pendrith (T20: $10 @ +200 on DraftKings): T44 -$10
- Mark Hubbard (T20: $10 @ +300 on DraftKings): T28 -$10
This week we are rolling out all five of our outrights for four T20 bets and a T30.
Emiliano Grillo (T20 @ +175 on FanDuel)
Scott Stallings (T20 @ +155 on FanDuel)
Mito Periera (T20 @ +150 on FanDuel)
Sepp Straka (T20 @ +160 on FanDuel)
Matthew NeSmith (T30 @ +100 on FanDuel)
Matchups
I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.
Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."
Last week we Taylor Pendrith missed a 4 foot putt on the final hole to push his matchup against Alex Noren.
- Taylor Pendrith over Alex Noren ($11 @ -110 on DraftKings): Push
This week we don't have any matchups as the model struggled to find value in any of the matchup markets.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Tom Kim (T10: $5 @ +185 on FanDuel)
Couldn't convince ourselves to pull the trigger on 16-1 outright so why not sprinkle a little on a top-10 finish.
It was brought to my attention by a reader that Breaking $100 has not totaled $100 for any of the fall events. Thank you for keeping me accountable as I should have mentioned that we are spending a little less while the 2023 season data remains murky with new KFT graduates and small field no cut events making up most of the events we are placing bets on. Once we feel comfortable with the data collected and the event formats, we will be back to betting all $100 of our dollars.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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