Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Mexico Open

We can all be grateful that I never posted an article for the Zurich Classic as I lost every single bet and every single DFS lineup last week. I embraced the event's volatility, and the volatility embraced my generous donations to the DFS community and respective betting books.

Breaking $100 has been a joy to write so far and we are excited to be back in action for this week's Mexico Open. In a field that is lacking significant star power there is opportunity to get comfortable with the chaos of a field that is essentially an alternate event. It will be exciting to see how the new course with no historic data translates to the assumptions we made in this week's handicapping process.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Vidanta Vallarta, Par: 71, Yardage: 7,456, Greens: Paspalum, Designer: Greg Norman

Vallarta, Mexico will be the where 144 tour pros stop this week with hopes of becoming the champion of the inaugural Mexico Open. A new event means we get a new course, so we have to resort to educated guesses and fundamental statistics when deciding on how to attack this week's event.

At 7,456 yards, this course plays longer than most Par 71s. With wider fairways and most Par 4s eclipsing 440 yards, strokes gained off the tee and driving distance will make up the majority of the model weighting attributed to that area of the game. Strokes gained on approach and 175-250 proximity ranges contribute roughly a third of the model's overall weighting. At an event with no historical data we will be leaning heavily on approach metrics which are generally the most predictive of the four major strokes-gained categories.

Par 5 scoring receives its largest model weighting to date, as not only are there four Par 5s, but an additional four Par 4s also stretch over 490 yards, which mirror skillsets required to score well on Par 5s. Birdie or better percentages will be our final criteria as resort courses typically yield friendlier scoring conditions than a typical tour stop.

In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:

• Model Rank
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24
• Proximity 175-250
• SG: Off The Tee
• Driving Distance
• Par 5 Scoring
• Birdie or Better %

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. In a field that has more new faces than a Dr. 90210 season, we decided to embrace three players who have all appeared in this article at some point.

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Gary Woodland ($4.85 @ +2500 on BetRivers)

Woodland was a plugged bunker shot away from having a real chance to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has been putting together impressive results lately, with a T8, T21 and two T5s in his last six starts. When emphasizing distance by an additional 15% in my model, Gary jumps from seventh to third. If he can unleash his driver without finding too many penalties, Woodland has a really good chance at winning this week.

He has now gained in six consecutive events with his irons which pack a powerful punch from the "divot-free zone" 312 yards down the fairway. Woodland ranks inside the top-20 in all three key approach metrics, showing utter control with his irons throughout the bag. His constant precision from the fairway should afford him more birdie looks than the majority of the field. After hemorrhaging six strokes on the greens at Augusta, his putter must be relieved to have made it to Mexico in one piece with hopes of redemption.

A poor 2021 season is holding the majority of his scoring stats back, but Gary's Par 5 scoring is top-30 on tour this season, 100 spots better than last year. He really has polished up his game and has put himself in countless positions to win lately. Hopefully this week he can feel comfortable when contending on Sunday and rely on his recent experiences to seal the deal down the stretch.

• Model Rank: 7th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 9th / 4th
• Proximity 175-250: 10th
• SG: Off The Tee: 41st
• Driving Distance: 6th
• Par 5 Scoring: 20th
• Birdie or Better %: 36th

Tony Finau ($4.85 @ +2500 on DK)

Tony Finau ranks no worse than 15th in every key criteria and is runner up to Jon Rahm in the model. From a ball-striking perspective, Finau once again trails only Rahm, displaying incredible driving and approach play on a weekly basis. His ability to swing with 70% power while still being one of the longer hitters on tour is one of the reasons why he is so precise from 175+ yards out.

The 25-to-1 price tag is covered in thick layers of ice thanks to a putter that could freeze over Egypt. He is on pace to lose an average of -0.43 strokes per round on the greens this season. However, in the midst of the worst putting performance of his PGA Tour career, Finau has unbelievably recorded back-to-back positive putting performances in his last two starts. He gained over half a stroke per round at Augusta on Saturday and Sunday, which may be all the confidence he needs to remember that he is, in fact, allowed to gain on the greens.

If he ends the week with a positive putter, the rest of his game is reliable enough to be the first winner of the Mexico Open!

• Model Rank: 2nd
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 3rd / 9th
• Proximity 175-250: 2nd
• SG: Off The Tee: 7th
• Driving Distance: 15th
• Par 5 Scoring: 2nd
• Birdie or Better %: 5th

Cameron Tringale ($3.30 @ +3700 on FD)

After a brutal Florida swing, Cameron Tringale has a T12 and a T10 in his last pair of starts. The T10 was a team event, but he still seemed in control of his game regardless of the format. The biggest concern this week is whether or not he can avoid hazards off the tee, which crippled him in Florida a month ago.

When Tringale is playing his best golf he excels with his irons and putter, two areas of the game that can easily gain multiple strokes on the field in a single round. Once he gets safely off the tee, Tringale's irons can mass produce birdie looks that have seen him finish T2 and T3 this season already. He had his first positive putting performance at the RBC after losing in every tournament since the Genesis almost two months ago.

His ninth-ranked Par 5 scoring validates his crisp iron play and tidy short game, which all also assist him in making the 11th most birdies in the field. It appears he has kicked his Florida-funk to the curb and is back to playing impressive enough golf to win his first PGA Tour event this week.

• Model Rank: 8th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 7th / 6th
• Proximity 175-250: 16th
• SG: Off The Tee: 39th
• Driving Distance: 33rd
• Par 5 Scoring: 9th
• Birdie or Better %: 11th

First-Round Leaders

Golf is a really weird game when it comes to the mental side of things. Some pros play better on Thursday when there is no pressure, while others play their best under pressure on a stressful Sunday afternoon. First-Round Leader bets will be for players who play really well on Thursdays. Typically, if you gain six strokes total on a Thursday, you stand a really good chance of leading after round one.

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12 on five guys to net $110 or more.

 Cameron Tringale ($3 @ +4000)

When Tringale is playing well he does some of his best work in round one, gaining over 4.5 strokes five times in the last two seasons.

Matt Jones ($1.85 @ +6600)

Matt Jones is not necessarily a round one specialist, but he is a single round specialist, capable of gaining incredible amounts of strokes on the field on any given day. He gained 5.7 and 6.7 strokes on the field over the weekend at this year's Tournament of Champions, which is also a longer course with wider fairways. He has distance off the tee and can hole just about any shot on or around the green when he gets in a groove. Hopefully he finds that groove this Thursday.

• Model Rank: 15th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 85th / 30th
• Proximity 175-250: 61th
• SG: Off The Tee: 21th
• Driving Distance: 10th
• Par 5 Scoring: 3rd
• Birdie or Better %: 21st

Chris Kirk ($2.65 @ +4500)

Chris Kirk is striking the golf ball incredibly well at the moment and does his best scoring in round one. His consistent ball-striking gives him an abundance of birdie looks. Over the last two years he has three rounds where he has gained over five strokes on Thursday, which is why he seems to find himself in this section of the article quite often.

• Model Rank: 9th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 11th / 10th
• Proximity 175-250: 6th
• SG: Off The Tee: 13th
• Driving Distance: 88th
• Par 5 Scoring: 55th
• Birdie or Better %: 29st

Sebastian Munoz ($3 @ +4000)

Sebastian Munoz was a consideration for an outright pick, but we landed up embracing his first round volatility as he gained over five shots in three Thursday rounds last year. He is due for another FRL and heads to a course with wide fairways and long approach shots that suit his game quite well. He makes more birdies than the majority of the field and can look to dominate the Par 5s on his way to our first FRL of the series.

• Model Rank: 8th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 25th / 16th
• Proximity 175-250: 13th
• SG: Off The Tee: 15th
• Driving Distance: 42nd
• Par 5 Scoring: 16th
• Birdie or Better %: 7th

Sahith Theegala ($1.60 @ +7500)

Sahith Theegala's game can be summed up by the Toy Story scene where Buzz and Woody strap a rocket to a remote-controlled car in an attempt to chase down Andy. Scrolling through Sahith's round by round data there are instances where his rocket-powered game is destined for victory but just struggles to stay on course for a full four rounds. He has four individual rounds this season that he has gained over six strokes on the field. If he can harness that explosiveness at a course designed for rocket-powered performance, there is a good chance Sahith sits atop of the leaderboard after Thursday's round.

• Model Rank: 26th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 46th / 113th
• Proximity 175-250: 80th
• SG: Off The Tee: 47th
• Driving Distance: 4th
• Par 5 Scoring: 34th
• Birdie or Better %: 23rd

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Placings

We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s. Odds range from +140 to +275 so two of the five guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit, depending on their respective odds.

Tony Finau (T20: $14 @ +140 on DK)

His ball-striking alone is enough to carry him to a top-20 in this field.

Aaron Wise (T20: $14 @ +175 on DK)

Aaron Wise has a very similar statistical profile to Tony Finau. It appears Wise's broomstick magic has vanished on the greens, entering the week with putting performances over the last 24 rounds outside the top-100. The rest of his game is very solid, gaining handsomely from tee to green. His consistent ball-striking helps him take advantage of the Par 5s as well as making birdies on his fair share of holes. He did manage to gain strokes putting in his last start which is hopefully a sign of good things to come in that department.

• Model Rank: 4th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 12th / 28th
• Proximity 175-250: 30th
• SG: Off The Tee: 8th
• Driving Distance: 20th
• Par 5 Scoring: 5th
• Birdie or Better %: 8th

Cameron Tringale (T20: $14 @ +155 on FD)

Appearing in all three sections of the article, we really like Cameron Tringale this week! He has the all-around game to win at this venue with a top-20 being a definite possibility.

Sebastian Munoz (T20: $14 @ +170 FD)

If the putter misbehaves Munoz is striking the ball well enough to hopefully sneak into a top 20 anyway. If the putter shows up, he will be a definite contender on Sunday afternoon.

Carlos Ortiz (T20: $14 @ +275 on DK)

We are getting a really nice number on an Ortiz top-20 thanks to his poor recent form. He ranks 99th in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds, but has a collection of baseline stats that suits this golf course incredibly well. If he can find inspiration to perform well in his home country and draw on his stellar baseline stats, he should be capable of a T20 finish.

• Model Rank: 11th
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 30th / 48th
• Proximity 175-250: 4th
• SG: Off The Tee: 19th
• Driving Distance: 13th
• Par 5 Scoring: 4th
• Birdie or Better %: 13th

The Farewell Fiver

Matt Jones (T10: $5 @ +500 on DK)

Wide open fairways and Matt Jones are a delightful combination and we want to take advantage of that. His length off the tee and his ability to get incredibly hot with his short game give him all the ammunition he needs to find himself inside the top 10 at the end of the week.

RBC Recap:

• Outright: -$13
• FRL: -$12
• Placings: -$22
• Farewell Fiver(s): -$5
• Total: -$52
• Season Total: +$121.15

Daniel Berger finished T21 at the RBC which would have made our placings profitable for the week had he managed to sneak inside the top 20. However, we are still up on the series and are looking to continue adding to our bank roll. Hopefully this is the week we cash our first FRL of the series.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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