Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - 3M Open

Last week's article mentioned, "...hopefully Smith's wispy mullet doesn't get in the way of too many photos of him and the Claret Jug."  This week, Cameron Smith is the Champion Golfer of the Year and his mullet behaved as well as his putter, not getting in the way of a single photo! Breaking $100 gets its third outright and second Cam Smith victory lap. What a sensational back nine from the Ozzie who scorched the putting greens and lathered the fairways with beautiful butter cuts. When he is playing his best golf, I'm not sure there is anyone more entertaining to watch.

Rory McIlroy continued a phenomenal run of major form and continues to put himself in positions to potentially grab his first major since piling up four of them eight-plus years ago. His play on the course is even more impressive when you think of what he is advocating off the course, defending the PGA Tour from the evil Australian warlock, who continues to poach the best players in the world. A truly heroic performance from Rory in his "home major" in front of a crowd who were basically all there for him.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

TPC Twin Cities, Par: 71, Yardage: 7,431, Greens: Bent, Designer: Arnold Palmer

After getting spoilt at the Old Course of St. Andrews the tour jumps back across the pond to tee it up at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. As is the case with most TPC courses, Twin Cities seems to be a ball strikers paradise, emphasizing approach play and rewarding great drivers of the ball. 50% of approach shots will take place from 125-200 yards which will be a key proximity range this week. A combination of length and accuracy off the tee will go a long way to capitalizing on the 13 holes that play under par.

The last trio of winners scoring -15, -19, and -21 all indicate that we are in search of birdie makers who can dominate the three par 5s and continue that into the rest of the round. Matthew Wolf won the 2019 edition leading the field in strokes gained from tee to green (T2G). The other two winners did most of their damage with the putter (both having season-best performances on the greens), but a handful of top-five finishers those years were also inside the top five in T2G, which seems like the blueprint we want to pursue.

Below are the settings for the model:

• We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 66% 2022 stats and 34% 2021 stats.
• Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (70%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%), course history (10%).

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Hideki Matsuyama ($6.55 @ +1800 onDraftKings)

As the best golfer in my model by quite a significant margin over Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama has odds +400 points more than Tony. Hello value! Before we get into what makes Hideki the best player in this field, we need to fully understand that a DQ or WD is definitely a possibility this week but getting the best player in this weaker field at 18-1 is worth the risk.

Hideki leads the field in baseline ball striking and is also inside the top five over the last two-dozen rounds. His proximity numbers from 125-200 are sensational and he also leads the field in both par 5 scoring and birdie or better percentage. As if that were not enough to sell you on the Japanese sensation, he finished T7 here in 2019 while losing strokes in the short game department. If his motivation shows up, without any white out on it (see Memorial DQ), he stands a fantastic chance of winning his third tournament of the year.

Davis Riley ($4.77 @ +2500 on BetMGM)

The Davis Riley outright odds market has been brutal to watch the last few days, as his popularity has driven down his odds across all books. However, regardless of his price, we want him on our card as he showed an impressive run of form heading into the U.S. Open, inevitably finishing outside the top-13 for the first time in six starts. Riley also played seven tournaments in May and June, which adds to the optimism of a refreshed and polished contender after taking off three weeks since.

Riley enters the week with the second-best ball striking numbers over the last 24 rounds, leading the field in approach over that time frame. He is also a birdie-making machine, ranking second to Hideki in that department. Since gaining on approach in six-straight starts, Davis has not gained more than +3.1 total strokes on the greens. He gained more than seven strokes twice in a handful of starts leading up to his iron play combusting into best-in-field territory. If we can get a spike putting week like we have seen before, Riley has the ball striking and birdie making capacity to find himself at the top of the 3M Open leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Gotterup ($2.43 @ +5000 on PointsBet)

In his five starts on tour so far, Chris Gotterup has flashed incredible ball striking and a putter that is either hot or cold. With that kind of statistical profile, it is only a matter of time until his ball striking and short game tango through the fairways of TPC Twin Cities. In his limited starts, Gotterup has shown the ability the make a bunch of birdies and use his length to take advantage of Par 5s. His sample size is minute, but at 50-1 we are taking a chance on the upside we have seen so far from the rookie.

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First-Round Leaders

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $11.25 on eight guys to net $110 or more. The below image shows the best round one scorers this year. There also seems to be a sizeable wind advantage for the guys going off in the morning on Thursday, which eliminates any PM tee times from the list.

Adam Svensson ($2.70 @ +5000 on DraftKings)

Matthias Schwab ($1.42 @ +9500 on FanDuel)

Seung-Yul Noh ($2.70 @ +5000 on BetRivers)

C.T. Pan ($2.08 @ +6500 on FanDuel)

Vaughn Taylor ($1.05 @ +5000 on DraftKings)

Dylan Fritelli ($2.05 @ +6600 on BetRivers)

Maverick McNealy ($3.38 @ +4000 on FanDuel)

Martin Laird ($2.70 @ +5000 on FanDuel)

Placings

At the time of writing this article BetMGM had no placing bets available, so if you get around to betting on these, if available, please use a book that pays ties in full, as long as the odds are within 30 points of what we have below. We have seven placing bets, with six top 20 bets. It's looking to be a volatile event, so we are embracing that with some really long top 20 odds.

Emiliano Grillo (T20: $10 @ +270 on BetRivers)

Cameron Davis (T20: $10 @ +160 on FanDuel)

Tom Hoge (T20: $10 @ +350 on DraftKings)

Chris Gotterup (T20: $10 @ +225 on Ceasars)

Lucas Glover (T20: $10 @ +350 on DraftKings)

Doug Ghim (T20: $10 @ +320 on Ceasars)

Vaughn Taylor (T40: $10 @ +250 on FanDuel)

The Farewell Fiver

Martin Laird (T10: $5 @ +450 on FanDuel)

After a T13, a T30 and a solo third place at the Baracuda, Martin Laird will bring his steady ball striking to a ball strikers paradise, where he will hopefully continue his form and ball strike his way to a top 10.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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