Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - 2023 Sony Open

Yesterday's "Back 9 Bets with guests" was titled "The Collinoscopy" and for those of you who had Collin Morikawa as an outright or DFS core piece, it must have felt like one. Collin's collapse was of epic proportions, but a lot of people in that field are simply not good enough to amount a 6-shot lead over the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and co. Having found himself in that position is a massive positive as his game has been a little shaky of late. For 3.5 rounds his putter was cooking. I have absolute faith that he will bounce back as we have a future on him later in the article.

Jon Rahm collected another win on the back of a scorching final round 63 (-10). He did so while losing strokes on approach, which is very difficult to do. It appears he has his putter dialed in, having gained at least five strokes putting in five of his last six starts with strokes gained data. He also continues to consistently gain strokes off the tee, with his only round losing off the tee coming at the Memorial, of all places.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. Max Homa finished T3 last week, but we never felt like he ever had a shot at winning after opening the week with a pair of very mediocre 3-under 70s. He then played the weekend -17 under par, gaining a whopping 8.5 strokes on the field. Our Masters future on him at 80-1 is looking better and better every time he tees it up.

My personal betting card is usually reflected in this article and typically, with how odds shorten as markets adjust to incoming bets, the same Breaking $100 outrights return X8 vs the X10 I try and structure my card around. That being said, Brian Harman's best number is 20-1 which is drastically shorter than the 35 I managed to snag Monday morning. We have added three other golfers in his place, that could potentially drive me nuts if one of them win and I am not personally on them.

We just could not get to Tom Kim at 11-1, as this course can trip up the very best and looking at the history of this event, being the best player in the field, which Tom Kim is, does not necessarily mean you are certain to win the event. Kim will be locked into my DFS player pool as my model has him ranked first, by a significant margin, but those odds were just a little too short for us.

If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there.

Tom Hoge ($4.92 @ +2500 Draftkings)

Tom Hoge ranks third in the model and at double the odds of Sungjae and Kim (#1 and #2). This number seemed a lot more palatable than putting us into single bullet range. Hoge may be feeling a sense of redemption after watching TCU get whacked by Georgia on Monday night. Hoge's recent ball striking is overlapping with his baseline marvelously and with his superior irons from 125-200 yards, we can expect a salty Hoge to pepper flags all week from a range that sees 68% of approach shots.

The reason Hoge is not 12-1 is largely because he can struggle on the greens at times, ranking 90th in the field on Bermuda grass over the last 50 rounds. However, he finished 3rd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week, gaining a modest +0.4 on the greens. Hoge ranks 67th around the greens in general, but with 50ish bunkers guarding greens this week, his 24th-ranked sand proximity should see him making more par saves than usual. Chances are good that a Tom wins this week.  Hopefully it is ours.

J.J. Spaun ($2.73 @ +5000 DraftKings)

J.J. Spaun is on a run of amazingly consistent results since the 2023 season kicked off, amassing six finishes of T25 or better in eight starts. His best finish of that octet of starts was last week, in Hawaii, where he will be teeing it up again for the Sony. The model has him ranked as the 28th golfer in the field, but the maniac in me thinks this run of results is going to see him break through sooner than later.

We are getting a 50-1 price tag on a golfer who is clearly playing much better golf now that he has been correctly diagnosed with diabetes. His game is extremely well rounded, typically gaining in all four major strokes gained categories when he has finished inside the top-25 in 75% of his last 8 starts. We get a 50-1 price tag on a golfer whose game is trending towards something magical soon. If J.J. can continue to play the type of golf we are now accustomed to, we could see his name Spaun at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Andrew Putnam ($2.24 @ +5500 FanDuel)

Andrew Putnam is one of the more accurate golfers on tour, ranking inside the top 40 in driving accuracy the last two seasons. He also notched up a T2 at the ZOZO Championship in the fall and found himself at the top of the leaderboard at the RSM classic before a shaky weekend. At an event where course history is one of the strongest on tour, Putman has a 2nd place finish here in 2019. He has been steadily gaining an average of half a stroke on approach since the 2023 season kicked off, while losing as many strokes off the tee due to his lack of distance which will be nullified here.

Andrew's biggest weapon is his last name, because when he gets hot, he just keeps Putnam in the hole! He gained just shy of seven strokes putting in round one of the 2019 Sony and has averaged half a stroke on the Waialae CC greens excluding that monster putting performance. With Robin Hood-like accuracy off the tee and on the greens, we can expect our guy to take from the bookies and give to our bankroll at the Sony this week.

 Emiliano Grillo ($2.05 @ +6000)

We simply cannot quit backing this Argentine! Emiliano Grillo has had four top five finishes in his last 11 starts, making 10 cuts along the way. He has seemingly reaped the rewards of a grip change on the putter, which has seen him average about half a stroke on the greens since the John Deere Classic. With course history playing such a big role this week, Grillo has gained OTT in 13 of his last 14 starts at Waialae CC (+0.6 avg), while gaining an average of half a stroke on approach.

Emiliano's biggest deficiency is around the greens, losing strokes in that department in 2022, and averaging -0.44 strokes ARG at Waialae CC. Woof. But, at 60-1, that is a deficiency we are hoping to get away with this week, expecting his superior ball striking and a well-rested putter to overcome one or two bad chips. In four appearances he has missed the cut and finished T47, T21 and T22. Grillo has shown he has the game to be a factor on Sundays and a win is on the Hawaiin horizon!

Nick Hardy ($1.23 @ +10000)

Oh boy, this guy has immense potential heading into the year. The below graphic was from the Mayakoba Classic where he rattled off EIGHT straight birdies on route to a Sunday charge up the leaderboard to finish T21. Nine of his last 22 rounds don't have strokes gained data, but in the 13 rounds that do, he has averaged +1.17 per round on approach, gaining +0.49 strokes as his worst round. Insane stuff.

Hardy at 100-1 is a number we cannot pass up, especially at a course where he can lean on his irons to hopefully rattle off another 8 birdies in a row.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Placings

This week we have 10 placement bets that we are rolling out. The model kicked out 13 total bets, which was just a little too much. All of these odds are at FanDuel as a lot of books STILL don't have placement markets available. You can place these bets at FD and cash them out if you find a better number once these bookies stop sleeping. We are betting $8 a pop on these 10 guys.

• Russell Henley +125 T20
• Corey Conners +140 T20
• Keegan Bradley +185 T20
• Adam Svensson +250 T20
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout +100 T40
• Brendon Todd +125 T40
• Russell Knox +130 T40
• Lucas Glover +220 T40
• Sam Ryder +200 T40
• Kevin Streelman +200 T40

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Players

Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)

After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

The Farewell Fiver

 (T1o: Tom Kim $5 @ +1200 on BetMGM)

For the first time since doing Breaking $100, we are going to have our farewell fiver be an outright. The Tom Kim FOMO is just too much, and we are going to sprinkle $5 on him to win this event. The farewell fiver is the part of the article where the maniac has full reign, and we are going to seize that power and take Tom to win this event for the third win of his short career that is on a rocket to stardom!

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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