Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Houston Open

In what seems like an alternate reality, Russell Henley confidently closed out his sizeable six-stroke lead on Sunday, in Mayakoba Mexico. For many seasoned bettors of golf, this is a phrase that would have won them significant amounts of money at the Wyndham Championship and Sony Open Championship rather recently. Henley played the first three days without a bogey, putting like a man possessed while continuing to show the world what one of the best iron players in the world looks like. The Russ Bus is headed to trophy town, and it could not have happened to a nicer guy - congratulations Russ!

In other news, Scottie Scheffler showing his formidable flatstick the cold shoulder for six rounds seems to have served its purpose. Scheffler went back to his brilliant blade over the weekend shooting a 62 on Sunday. He did hit 16/18 greens that day, which gave his putter ample opportunity to show us what it learnt while in time out. Scottie heads to Texas with his eyes on the prize and will seemingly settle for nothing less than winning his first event of the 2023 season in his home state of Texas.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Memorial Park Golf Course: Par: 70, Yardage: 7,412 Greens: Bermuda

This is one of the tougher courses these professionals will see all year, with the majority of the field striving to reach -10, which could quite possibly be the score that wins this event. Fairways are hit less than tour average and as a result, greens are also hit 7% less than most places. The tight-lies that surround the putting green can pose a dilemma for a lot of the players who struggle to get the ball close from the fringe. Below is a screen shot of what the model settings look like this week.

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. This week we have an interesting approach to picking a winner, as we have yet to do so.

Scottie Scheffler ($13.75 @ ?+800?)

The model has Scottie as the clear-cut favorite in the field and the odds market reflects that. With the field being top heavy, the rest of the high-ranked players are also at extremely low odds, making it tough to decide where to go between Sam Burns, Aaron Wise and Tony Finau. We are going to play this week conservatively and hope for a little bad luck for Scottie early in the week, and pounce on any odds that drift to +800 or better. "What if that doesn't happen?" you may ask. Well, if his odds don't get worse than the +550 they are currently at, he is probably going to win the event, and any bets we placed to rival him would likely end in the bookie's pocket.

There is so much to like about Scottie this week that we are playing a little defense, hoping to counterattack a respectable number if he makes one or two early bogies tomorrow morning. Scottie hit 76% of his greens in Mexico, continuing to display a dominant ball-striking repertoire. At difficult courses like this, premium ball strikers will separate themselves from those we have to repeatedly rely on their short game to get up and down for par after missing yet another green. As the best driver and second-best iron player in the field, Scottie will likely end the week inside the top 10 in ball striking statistics, which we get back now that the tour is back in the US.

Not only does Scottie have the third-best strokes gained average on hard courses, he is also a Texas native, growing up on these kinds of courses and typically playing really well at venues like this. Scheffler has played this event twice and finished T32 and T2 in 2020 and 2021 respectively. The T32 included a Friday 75 (-3.68 strokes gained) and still made the cut, having opened with a scorching 67 on Thursday. In 2021 he shot a Texas-size 62 on Friday, gaining a laughable +9.16 strokes on the field. Although he has lost on the greens in half his rounds here, in the rounds he gained, he gained significantly, averaging +0.41 strokes on the greens in his eight rounds.

The former World No. 1 will be looking to reclaim his crown and winning in Texas will go a long way to re-establishing his dominance he showed earlier this year. We will patiently await a few "lucky" bogies in round one (hopefully) and then throw all our chips on the horse that suits this course better than anybody in the field.

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Placings

The placement model is broken, as it is not accounting for the KFT guys no matter how hard we try to massage their data to look like it should on a more difficult PGA tour. We are not betting 13 placement bets like she is suggesting. However, we are going to hand pick four guys from this list who have shown us enough to go to them at their respective odds.

Taylor Montgomery (T20: $10 @ +125 on FanDuel)

Martin Laird (T40: $10 @ +175 on FanDuel) 

James Hahn (T40: $10 @ +230 on FanDuel)

Austin Smotherman (T40: $10 @ +230 on FanDuel)

Matchups

I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.

Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."

Last week's matchup was Joel Dahmen over Harris English: Dahmen finishing T3 was enough to seal the deal for this matchup after English opened his week with a 64 on Thursday. He regressed down the leaderboard as the week unfolded and Joel took care of business on Sunday.

This week's matchup: The matchup market looks rather dry this week. The closest we got was Aaron Wise over Russell Henley, but still fell short by about 34 points. You know what, we are going to make an executive maniac decision and actually pull the trigger on that.

Aaron Wise over Russell Henley (-116 on FanDuel)

Henley having just won in Mexico will not have had a normal week heading into Houston, dealing with media obligations and a potential victory hangover. The model likes this matchup, as we have Wise ranked 5 spots ahead of Henley, but it was not enough to meet the value threshold. The model is also incorporating the fact that he won a golf tournament last week, as a good thing, which may in fact be a bad thing, having played at such a high-level for four straight days, it will be interesting to see if Henley continues that form. Aaron Wise has a T11 and T26 here, and enters the week having finished 6th, T64, and T15 in his last three starts.

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Players

Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)

After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

The Farewell Fiver

 (T10: Dean Burmester $5 @ +550 on FanDuel)

Personally, I managed to snag Dean Burmester as my only pre-tournament outright at 95-1, which is now 65-1 and not bettable if we want to add Scottie live. However, we are going to try kill two Houston birds with one stone and bet Burmy for T10 at +550 on FanDuel. His length off the tee is going to be a major weapon and he has a really tidy touch around the greens. He will be looking for his second T5 in four starts.

We are still not spending our entire bankroll ($100 per week) until we find some level of comfort with the model in full field events and bigger KFT sample sizes.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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