RADIO
If you are looking for a top-5 putter in the field, who gained the most strokes on approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge, just tail my outright selections. The caveat there, is that in order to gain 8 strokes on approach, Justin Rose had to lose -2.5 putting, which seems like a fair trade off for somebody who hasn't lost strokes putting since January... why not just roll out your 2nd-worst putting performance of the year the week you have your best iron performance in the last two years. Betting on golf is fun, right? Right? Right???
Anyway, the tilt factory that has been this Breaking $100 article continues to operate at peak production, with Emiliano Grillo rubbing the salt into our wounds with an epic win in a playoff to claim his second win on tour, about 8 years after his first. He also invited some kids onto the 1st tee hit some shots with his clubs, while he was warming up for the playoff. He is just an awesome dude and despite not being on him for his win, we are very excited for our twitter friend. Congrats Grillo!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Outrights ($10)
We are adjusting our outright strategy a little to be much passive and cautious with how we go about investing in this market. Considering we haven't hit an outright since the Shriners we probably want to reduce our unit exposure in this area until we start hitting a few more winners. Yes, the more horses we have in the race, the better our chances are, but this week there are more silky stallions called Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Jon Rahm in the field, who have won 3 of the last 4 editions of this tournament and 6 times this year. Golf betting is fun, right? Scottie is +650 and Rahm is +750 which is single bullet range.
($4.68 @ +3100 @ Circa)
I have made a lot of photoshops over the last while, but none seem more applicable than Tyrrell Hatton starring as "Anger" in the movie Inside Out. The grumpy Englishman really doesn't have much to be grumpy about recently. He has finishes of T15, T5 and T3 in his last three starts, with the T15 involving a +7 front 9 at the PGA Championship, fighting back to make the cut and record one of the most impressive top-20s of his career. He is hitting the second most good shots on approach (gaining +0.5 on a single shot) in this field and has also been driving the ball really well.
His around the green play has been as close to bulletproof as possible, losing strokes only once in the last 16 rounds with his putter being a little inconsistent, although that has been trending in the right direction lately, too. Hatton sits inside the top-10 for strokes gained on medium difficulty courses and should be eagerly awaiting the opportunity to improve on his T33 at the Memorial in his maiden appearance last year. The only part of hot-headed Hatton that will be on fire this week, will be the scorching irons he has shown us lately. Bust out the marshmallows, Hatton is going to win this thing, folks!
Corey Conners ($2.90 @ +5000 @ FanDuel)
At a course that sees greens in regulation rates plummeting due to the thick rough punishing errant drives, Corey Conners leads the field in weighted GIR%. He gains the 6th-most strokes off the tee on long courses and over the last two-dozen rounds, Conners has been drenching his ball striking with a syrupy slew or repeatable darts! If you remove the meltdown he had at the PGA Championship in R4, Conners has been averaging over 2 strokes per round on the ball striking front in his last 17 rounds.
As somebody who has always been slightly below average putting and chipping, Conners has gained around the greens in 7 of his last 8 rounds, with his putter refusing to be left out of the fun, gaining half a stroke per round over the last dirty dozen rounds Conners has teed it up in. The course history for the Canadian cruiser includes a T13 and a T22 in his last four showings, having made the cut in all of them. There is a lot to like about his prospects heading into the week and I am already working on the Canadian remix of Death Leppard's hit song "Pour Some Syrup On Me!" to blare out my Nissan Altima as I cruise the corn fields of Iowa after our guy gets it done for his second win of the year!
Sahith Theegala ($2.42 +6000 @ FanDuel)
He was a last minute addition to the card, so Sahith Theegala will have to go tweetless, assuming the role of the faceless man (Game of Thrones). We can pretend to be Arya Stark in this situation, with Sahith taking us under his wing and magically maneuvering up the leaderboard throughout the week, ultimately turning us into one of the most lethal sports bettors known to American oddsmakers after he wins his first PGA Tour event at Jack's Place, where he has finished T5 and T32 in his only two showings.
Theegala has averaged +0.75 strokes per round on the greens over his last four starts. He finished 9th at Augusta and T5 at Harbour Town with his last two starts getting derailed by a rebellious driver, which is our only real concern heading into the week, but at 60-1 it is a vice on which we are willing to roll the dice. Just as smooth as that word play, is Theegala's touch around the greens, capable of chipping in from everywhere, particularly efficient out of the bunker. He has gained over +2.5 strokes on approach in 2 of his last 8 rounds, showing the ability to get frisky on approach, and with his strokes gained out the rough 150+ ranking 10th we can expect fireworks from our guy once again this week!
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($40)
We cashed Justin Rose +150 and lost every other bet. Bez finished T21 barely missing a top-20 at +320, while Akshay sat T22 with about 6 holes to go and landed up finished close to the bottom of the leaderboard. Brendon Todd joined Rose in the strike against gaining strokes on the greens, making the cut but losing -4.2 strokes putting as the 3rd-best Bentgrass putter in the field. The best part about last week's result was that we omitted Aairon Rai from our card as his T40 rate of 23% was not inspiring confidence at +120, not only proving us wrong, but finishing T16, knocking Bezuidenhout out of the top-20. FUN!
Let's take a peek at who we will be tilting over in Cleveland this weekend. We are betting $8 on each of the five bets because we have a few matchups we need to save budget for. Trying something different.
- Tom Kim Top-20 +220
- Matt Kuchar Top-20 +240
- Brendon Todd Top-40 +165
- Adam Svensson Top-40 +190
- Eric Cole Top-40 +200
Matchups ($45)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
Charles Schwab Challenge Recap
We landed up not betting Si Woo over Min Woo, which was the only matchup that won last week. FUUUUUN! Denny missed his first cut since February and Sam Burns birdied the last two holes of his final round to tie Rickie and push the matchup, with Burns having the best ARG performance of his career, gaining over 6 strokes ... LOOOOL. (I am not salty about this ... at. all)
For easy math, we are just going to bet $9 on each matchup.
- Hideki -138 / Rickie -140 / Sahith -103 vs Sam Burns: Redemption season for Rickie and while he is beating up on Burns, we want Theegala and Hideki to join in too. Burns is still struggling with his irons and around the green areas of his game, which are both CRITICAL for success here. As always, the threat of a hot putter can derail our chances, but we are going to back our guys' ball striking.
- Day -125 vs Young: Cameron Young is in the bottom quarter of bogey avoidance and strokes gained around the green. The iron play for Young has also been less explosive recently, while Jason Day is rattling off a top-20 in 70% of his starts. UPDATE: A report just surfaced that Day has some sort of wrist injury he will try to play through. I would not place this bet now knowing about the wrist. You can hedge out at -105 if you have already placed the bet.
- Svensson-115 vs Horschel: The defending champ has been in putrid form recently while Svensson has made 7 of his last 8 cuts and has been really consistent off the tee for the last few months.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 +400: $2.50 Top 10 +1100: $2.50
You cannot hit the ball this well with the irons, have this good a putter on Bentgrass, be inside the top-30 in accuracy off the tee and strokes gained around the green, yet not finish inside the top 10 this season. The course history is solid and if Bezzy can T20 we make $10 and a T10 nets us $37.50 for this bet. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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