RADIO
The problem with betting outrights is that because I live bet on Tom Kim on Saturday, I had a horse in the race and completely missed out on the amazing story of Bobby McIntyre winning the Canadian Open. He became the 7th golfer in a sample of 145 individual stroke play events not to gain any strokes on approach and still go on to win the tournament. A feat accomplished by less than 5% of PGA Tour winners.
The Canadian Open rotation of courses, the overall atmosphere, and the lack of non-Canadian star power provided the overabundance of Canadians playing that week a glimmer of hope to win their home Open, which Mackenzie Hughes almost continued for his fellow maple syrup-loving comrades.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
We limited our exposure because we felt like we didn't really have a good feel for the event .... and we lost every bet we placed ... we were 9 total shots away from being profitable for the week, which is a weird way to think about it all. Still, at least our guys stood a chance to cash the bets versus missing the cut.
- Hughes finished T7 (top-5 +750)
- Fleetwood T21 (top 10)
- Pendrith T21 (top 10)
- Scott finished T42 (top 30)
To begin round four, I believe three of these were cashing, and as the golfing gods would have it, we ended the event giving all our hard-earned profits back to the bookies. We are just having too many of these kind of weeks this year. I think this is the 2nd time we have lost every bet placed. We have also had some really good weeks, so we will take the good with the bad.
Outrights ($18.68)
Sahith Theegala $1.81 +4000
"If you are a regular reader of this article, surprise!!!!" Sahith Theegala is on the card again (see the -$20.48 lost on him in the outright market). He has just been flirting with victory this year. A T2 at the Sentry and RBC Heritage. What is more exciting about those T2s at those courses is that at the Sentry, there are a lot of mid-irons and wedges, while the RBC is a shorter course with a bit more positional savviness needed for success. It's also another RBC event for which Sahith is an ambassador.
The last time they played here, the top 5 golfers all gained at least +1.4 putting per round. Sahith Theegala is fourth on the PGA Tour behind Taylor Montgomery, Denny McCarthy, and Aaron Baddeley, who are all exceptional rollers of the rock. The only difference between Sahith and those three is that Theegala can also rock and roll, with his ball striking ranking 7th in this field. The thunder and lightning of ball striking and putting is what we are looking for, and Sahith is due a win here soon!" - RBC Canadian Open
He is continually mispriced for the upside he offers. If we can start each Monday morning auto-betting Sahith at 40-1, I think that we would find reasonable success in 2024. It's basically what we have been doing, and we will continue to do, showing fearless faith in one of the most talented golfers on tour!
Viktor Hovland $3.97 (+1800)
I want to say that after this week, win or lose, the 17s on Viktor Hovland may start disappearing across the US Open betting market, as I think he is back to being the Viktor of old. As the defending champ of this prestigious event, his game that is tailored for this golf course is starting to find its groove again as the chipping issues that derailed his first few months of the year seem to have been resolved immediately after returning to his short game coach, Joe Mayo.
Things Viktor does extremely well that this course demands on repeat:
- Hitting the driver far and straight
- Hitting long irons high and accurately
- Hack chip shots out the cabbage around the greens
- Make repeated 5-15 foot putts for par on Bent greens
All four areas of the game have unique aspects that he does really, really well! We love the number on him, and we love where his game is headed.
Byeong Hun An (+5000)
Another staple on our betting cards, and his four top-4 finishes this year have given us reason to believe outright bets in the 50-1 range should continue to be placed on Benny. A third place at the Wells Fargo gives us the belief that a win is on the horizon for one of the longer hitters on tour. His iron play has also been gaining +0.75 strokes per round for most of the year too. Since moving to the broomstick putter, Benny has seen these higher-end finishes as the putter has provided the additional boost up the leaderboard roughly half the time he has teed it up. The other times it has been the worst aspect of his very well-rounded game. A spike-putting week at a venue that highlights everything he does well could give us a winner this week!
Keegan Bradley (+5000)
Keegan Bradley is currently on a stretch of driving EXCELLENCE. His last eight rounds of golf off the tee have combined to gain him +12.35. Since 2017, these are the other golfers who have also gained 12+ OTT in back-to-back starts. If the driving continues to be exceptional, the T2 at Colonial will be another reason why we should have seen the win coming for Keegan. When one area of your game starts firing up like this, it surely spills into the other areas of your game, which should see his long irons giving him many stress-free pars all week long, while his three-putt avoidance and the tidy scrambling game should be enough to get across the line at Muirfield Village.
Max Homa (+5500)
This was pure number grab, as FanDuel dropped their odds half a day later than the rest of the industry and then laid out the best odds for pretty much every golfer out there. Homa at 55 seemed a lot more appealing than in the 40s and 35s out there at the time. His recent form has been a little all over the place, but finishes of T8, T3, and T8 at Bay Hill, Augusta, and Quail Hollow have me thinking that a win at a venue with similar length and difficulty as those three venues have me believing that we are not far away from Homa breaking back into the winners' circle!
Placings ($85)
Matchups
NO MATCHUPS THIS WEEK.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 matchup parlay to win $5 +2101 (FanDuel)
It's a bit of a mess trying to get six matchups (going off in twosome with only 70 golfers in the field) into a screenshot, so here they are at DK (+1900 at FD)
- Lowry over Fitzpatrick -105
- Young over Svensson -150
- Bradley over Kirk -140
- Scheffler over Aberg -220
- Bhatia over Pavon-145
- Collin Morikawa over Matsuyama -165
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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