X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship

Ludvig Aberg - PGA DFS lineup picks daily fantasy golf

Had I known we were laying +2500 on Billy Horschel to be Aaron Rai's personal hype guy, we would have bet on somebody else. But in all seriousness, Horschel truly seems to represent the camaraderie these professional golfers have with each other, for the most part. It can be tough to win on tour, but with Billy by your side and the guy leading by four strokes making a quadruple bogey AND a four putt on two of his final nine holes, winning finally became easy for Rai at a wet, wonderful Wyndham Championship.

If we ignore the Open Championship, Rai entered the week with five consecutive top-20s and three consecutive top-10s, which was the kind of form that we should not have ignored on the outright side of things. He is one of the hardest workers on tour and was very deserving of a win on US Soil after a several Sunday's where he seemed incapable of handling the leaderboard pressure. Just like Xander, the guys who frequent the top of the board but struggle to get across the line, typically tend to do so at some point, with the likes of  Morikawa, Fleetwood and Lowry still trying to prove that point.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

 

Recap of last Week

Sometimes you just have a weird feeling about a week and with the weather resulting in the remnants of R2, R3 and R4 all taking place on Sunday, this was no typical week. As usual, we took our $10 in the outright market and handed it to the golfing gods as our weekly penance for great fortunes in the placement market, which treated us poorly last week too. Cameron Young (T10) was in contention to win the tournament with R4 still ahead of him, ejecting from contention within the first five holes of the final round and never sniffing the top 20 thereafter. Sungjae was on the bubble of a top-20 with 1 round to go and also shot over par in his final round.

Davis, Bhatia, Kitayama and Kim all missed the cut, which can happen with weather like we had. Si Woo missing the cut at an event he has thrived at in the past was the difference between profit and loss for us this week, although we never want to have our weekly success hinge on a single golfer. Horschel managed to cheerlead Rai to a T10 and T40 for us, while also sneaking into the top-10 himself after getting stuck in neutral in R3. Eric Cole went nuclear on the final 9 and snuck back into the top 10 for us to limit our damages in case any of you were wondering if I was just going to harp on about all the bad breaks. We are focusing on the good ones too, with Billy and Cole both coming through for us when those bets looked dead as well.

  • Outrights -$10
  • Placements -$15.52
  • Farewell Fiver -$5
  • Total -$30.52

Below is where we stand for single stake bets on the season. We know that our strength is in the placement market, which is doing an almighty job of holding up the lifeless corpse of outright betting... were this not something people wanted to bet, we likely don't even bet outrights as it has never been a profitable market for me since doing this. Placements, though, are my jam!!! This is why it is important to track your bets!

  • Outrights -$199
  • Each ways -$24
  • Placements +232
  • Head to heads -$22
  • Total -$-14

 

Outrights $10

Ludvig Aberg $4.23 +2000

Don't over think it, Byron. When your model has Ludvig Aberg as the third-ranked golfer, but there are four other golfers priced well ahead of him, you make the bet. The winner of the RSM thrives on these shorter venues. Aberg has a 2nd at the Masters, a T5 at the Memorial and a T4 at the Scottish Open (which he should have won) three starts ago and as has been the case all year, he will once again be playing TPC Southwind for the first time. He is the fifth-best approach player from 150-200 yards has gained the 2nd most strokes OTT on courses shorter than 7,200 yards.

If we can just have the Sunday scaries take a back seat this week, we have a top-3 golfer in this field looking to stamp his name on his second tournament win in less than 12 months. In his last half-dozen final rounds he has lost an average of -2.07 strokes to the field, with finishes of T10, T5, T12, T27, T4 and T18 in that stretch despite the Sunday slides. At 20-1 the talent is just too good to pass up with hopes that Rai rising above his Sunday scaries gives Aberg the confidence to seal the deal for us. Heck, maybe we can have Aberg paired up with Horschel in the final round?

Sahith Theegala $1.70 +5000

Theegala has a pair of 13th-place finishes in his two starts at TPC Southwind so far. He also has three top-10 finishes on courses that possess similar characteristics to that of Southwind. A T9 at the PLAYERS, a runner up at Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) and then a T6 at a watery 3M Open. His comfort around these kind of venues with tons of water and forced layups is a lot better than you would think when watching him play in a way that makes you wonder when the single strand of golden glue holding his round together is going to snap. It hardly ever does. We have bet Sahith religiously this year, with a 50-1 giving us that opportunity again as the regular season winds down over the next three of playoff golf.

Aaron Rai $1.70 +5000

On my show last night, one of my regular chat participants claimed that Rai is going back-to-back this week. I tend to agree. Especially when thinking that Rai is the only golfer in the top-100 that wears two gloves and a guy called Lucas Glover went back-to-back at the very same tournaments last year. Now, we are not just doing this to fulfill the "Glove of Love" prophecy, but also because Sedgefield CC is a decent warm up for TPC Southwind with is narrow fairways and tricky approach shots out the thick Bermuda rough.

Rai thrives out the rough from 150+, ranking inside the top-20 in both SG and good shot rates. He also gains the most strokes on approach from the 150-200 yard bucket, which we will see 7% more than tour average with 44% of shots coming from that range this week. Despite being so solid out the rough, Rai is hardly ever in it, leading this field in accuracy off the tee while gaining the 11th most strokes OTT on courses shorter than 7,200 yards. He checks both the course fit and the recent form boxes this week, with both his gloves looking to get in touch with another trophy on Sunday.

Wyndham Clark $1.31 +6500

A lot of people gave Clark a tough time for earning his spot on the Olympic Golf team for USA. I was one of those people after his abysmal performance in R1, ending the day a shot or two out of DFL. However, over the final three rounds of the Olympics, nobody gained more strokes than Clark, who roared up the leaderboard with the 10 strokes he gained on the field in R3 and R4. If we can avoid losing -5.1 strokes in R1, Clark has the ceiling game to win any event on any course, as validated by his three wins at Quail Hollow, Pebble Beach and LACC.

He also has a runner up finish to Scheffler at this year's PLAYERS, with a T3 at Harbour Town another feather in his cap that can somehow dominate shorter venues, which we will be expecting from him again this week after flashing some solid form in his last four starts, finishing T9, T10, MC and T14 in his last few starts. He is knocking on the door of another win, but the knocks are soft enough to warrant a disrespectful +6500 price tag for the three-time winner on Tour who just needs to string together four good rounds now.

Byeong Hun An $1.06 +8000

Byeong Hun An has five top-10 finishes on the year, with his playoff loss hurting us and him early in the year at the Sony Open, another short, positional venue. An is a volatile player, with his results ranging from playoff loses to 67th place at Harbour Town the week after the Masters. Having gained the seventh most median strokes this year, An is surprisingly consistent when removing his absolute worst events. At 80-1 he has the ball striking (18th) qualities to pair up well with a putter that tends to show up sporadically since moving to the broomstick. A volatile putter is more appealing on an outright ticket than a consistent putter slightly above average all the time, never giving his Tee-To-Green skillset any boost to gain those extra strokes needed to win an event. An was a four-foot putt away from victory in Hawaii, with Memphis providing him another opportunity to put a redemptive W on his PGA Tour resume heading into the off season.

 

Placings ($85)

These are placement bets for the week, with some of them finding themselves on our outright card too.

These are the numbers we will be using to determine if we have an actual edge on these bets.

 

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

We are not going to be betting on a bunch of two-ball matchups for this week's farewell fiver, but instead we will be going with a few First Round Leaders that we like.

  • Justin Thomas $2 +4000
  • Patrick Cantlay $3 +3000

Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sam LaPorta45 mins ago

Trending Towards Playing In Week 12
Calvin Ridley2 hours ago

Out Wednesday With Illness
Isiah Pacheco3 hours ago

To Practice On Wednesday
D'Andre Swift3 hours ago

Won't Practice On Wednesday
Brandin Cooks4 hours ago

Cowboys Open Brandin Cooks' Practice Window
Mike Evans4 hours ago

Practicing Again On Wednesday
Cam Whitmore6 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Wednesday
Ryan Rollins6 hours ago

Continues To Sit Wednesday
Kevon Looney6 hours ago

Expected To Return On Wednesday
Kyle Anderson6 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday
Miles McBride7 hours ago

Remains On The Shelf Wednesday
Norman Powell7 hours ago

Will Not Play On Wednesday
Connor Bedard7 hours ago

Ends Drought With Two Assists
Sam Reinhart7 hours ago

Pushes Point Streak To 11 Games
Mark Scheifele7 hours ago

Celebrates Ninth Career Hat Trick
Evan Bouchard7 hours ago

Rocks Senators With Three-Point Period
Connor McDavid8 hours ago

Nets Two Goals During Three-Point Night
TB8 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Exits Early With Injury Tuesday
Zach Hyman8 hours ago

Sits Out Third Period Versus Senators
15 hours ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers15 hours ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
Bradley Beal18 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday Evening
Jusuf Nurkic18 hours ago

Questionable Versus The Knicks
Anthony Davis19 hours ago

Will Play Against The Jazz
Stephen Curry19 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report For Wednesday
Jalen Johnson19 hours ago

Questionable Versus Golden State
Ben Sheppard20 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Wednesday
Jalen Green20 hours ago

Uncertain For Wednesday’s Game
Myles Turner20 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Wednesday
Cam Thomas20 hours ago

Will Not Play Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo20 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Wednesday
Marcus Smart21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Tuesday
Cam Thomas21 hours ago

Is Questionable For Tuesday
Anfernee Simons21 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Another Game
Deandre Ayton21 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Wednesday
Kyle Lowry21 hours ago

To Miss Next Three Games
Jonas Brodin22 hours ago

Returns To Action
Joel Eriksson Ek22 hours ago

Returns To Wild Lineup
22 hours ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Robert Thomas22 hours ago

Back For Blues Tuesday
Jose Siri22 hours ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Alexander Romanov22 hours ago

Rejoins Islanders Lineup
Brayden Point22 hours ago

Ready To Return Versus Penguins
Conor Garland22 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
J.T. Miller22 hours ago

Takes Indefinite Leave For Personal Reasons
Jake Ferguson23 hours ago

"Will Be Hard-Pressed" To Play In Week 12
Alex Ovechkin23 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Cooper Rush23 hours ago

Will Start In Week 12
Brandin Cooks23 hours ago

Cowboys Hoping Brandin Cooks Returns This Week
1 day ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
1 day ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
Aaron Rodgers1 day ago

' Status With Jets In Doubt For 2025?
1 day ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
1 day ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
1 day ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
New York Jets1 day ago

Jets Fire GM Joe Douglas
Travis Konecny1 day ago

Stretches Point Streak To Seven Games
Sam Montembeault1 day ago

Records 30-Save Shutout Versus Oilers
William Eklund1 day ago

Scores Twice In Overtime Victory
Brett Leason1 day ago

Tallies Three Points In Win Over Stars
Brock McGinn1 day ago

Exits Win With Injury
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Evaluated For Leg Injury
Luke Schoonmaker2 days ago

Commands 10 Targets Amidst Teammate's Injury
CeeDee Lamb2 days ago

Remains Productive Despite Loss
Houston Texans2 days ago

Texans D/ST Finds End Zone In Victory At Dallas
Joe Mixon2 days ago

Extends Hot Streak Against Cowboys
Luis Gil2 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Jake Ferguson2 days ago

Won't Return On Monday
Paul Skenes2 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brock Purdy2 days ago

Day-To-Day With Shoulder Soreness
George Kittle2 days ago

Expected To Practice On Wednesday
CeeDee Lamb2 days ago

Officially Active On Monday Night
Nico Collins2 days ago

Won't Face Playing-Time Restrictions On Monday Night
New York Giants2 days ago

Brian Daboll On The Hot Seat In New York?
Brady Singer2 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
2 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
2 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler2 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva2 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy2 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
Nick Martinez3 days ago

Signs Qualifying Offer With Reds
3 days ago

Luis Severino Likely To Decline Qualifying Offer From Mets
James Llontop3 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig3 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal3 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic3 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones3 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title
Grayson Rodriguez5 days ago

Orioles Optimistic Grayson Rodriguez Will Have A Full Spring Training
5 days ago

Red Sox Have Productive Meeting With Juan Soto
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Set For A Rematch At UFC 309
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC 309
Viviane Araujo5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy5 days ago

Looks For His Second UFC Win
Jett Williams6 days ago

Suffers Sprained Ankle In AFL
James Llontop6 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC 309
Paul Craig6 days ago

Looks To Snap Losing Skid At UFC 309
Bo Nickal6 days ago

Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic6 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC 309
Jon Jones6 days ago

Defends Heavyweight Title At UFC 309

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jonnu Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Jonnu Smith Fantasy Football Outlook - Was His Big Game Legit or a Fluke?

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith had his first big game in Week 7, but he broke out in an even bigger way in Week 11 in a win against the Las Vegas Raiders. He caught six of his eight targets for 101 yards and a touchdown in the 34-19 win. His biggest play came […]


Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

NFL Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2024)

There will be six teams on a bye for Week 12. The good news is, we still have some great matchups. That includes the Chargers hosting the Ravens and the Rams taking on the Eagles. Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who […]


Jake Bates - Fantasy Football Rankings, Kicker Waiver Wire Pickups, Streamers

Week 12 Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings: Kicker Updates Include Justin Tucker, Chris Boswell, Austin Siebert, Cameron Dicker, Wil Lutz, Chase McLaughlin

If you're one of the many fantasy managers who have struggled to get production out of your fantasy kicker spot, be sure to use our Week 12 fantasy football kicker rankings for 2024 to guide you in setting optimal lineups. The kicker position has always been challenging to predict and project, so we're here to […]


Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Running Backs

Week 12 Fantasy Football Projections: Running Backs (Half-PPR) - Chubba Hubbard, Isiah Pacheco, Tyrone Tracy, JK Dobbins, Kareem Hunt, Tony Pollard

Somehow, only three weeks of the fantasy football regular season remain in most leagues. Whether you're hoping to hold onto a top seed or need to stack a few wins together to qualify for the playoffs, our initial Week 12 fantasy football running back projections for the 2024 NFL season will help you understand where […]


Xavier Worthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Fantasy Football Projections: Wide Receivers (Half-PPR) - Xavier Worthy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jayden Reed, DeAndre Hopkins, Tank Dell

The fantasy football playoffs begin in Week 15, so needless to say, time is running out if you need wins to qualify. If you're in a must-win spot down the stretch, it's critical to read our Week 12 fantasy football wide receiver projections for the 2024 NFL season. Ahead of the all-important slate, let's dig […]


David Njoku - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire

Week 12 Fantasy Football Projections: Tight Ends (Half-PPR) - George Kittle, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, Mark Andrews, more

We're back for another week of fantasy football coverage, and while rankings are a great place to start your weekly start-or-sit preparation, you can use our Week 12 fantasy football tight end projections for the 2024 NFL season for further assistance. Ahead of the Week 12 slate, let's navigate the numbers and see the projected […]


Bo Nix - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Week 12 Fantasy Football Projections Quarterbacks: Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud, Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels

It's make-or-break time for many fantasy managers, so it's time to lock in and set optimal lineups. Our Week 12 fantasy football quarterback projections for the 2024 NFL season are here to assist. Check the projections below to see how key Week 12 QBs such as Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, Jared […]


Houston Texans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Derek Stingley Fantasy Football IDP

D/ST Strength of Schedule: Best Fantasy Football Defense Streamers and Matchups (Weeks 12-17)

Ahh, the good old Defense/Special Teams (DST) position in fantasy football. It is a controversial inclusion in fantasy lineups for some fantasy players, but strategizing around DSTs is one of my favorite aspects of the in-season fantasy football experience. In the article below, I will present the strength of schedule (SOS) for the fantasy Defense/Special […]


Video: Week 12 Must-Start Defense (D/ST) Streamers - 2024 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Analysis

We're back and dropping fire content for Week 12! Check out our top 2024 fantasy football must-start Defenses (D/ST) and be prepared to dominate your matchups! LaQuan Jones discusses his top "Must Start" Defense (D/ST) streamers that have the potential to be game-changers in Week 12, as well as some defenses that you might want […]


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injuries

Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Buy/Sell For Week 12 Including Josh Downs, T.J. Hockenson, Bucky Irving, D'Andre Swift

For many fantasy football gamers, the end of Week 11 marked the last opportunity to make trades ahead of the fantasy playoffs. However, there are plenty of leagues that have a later deadline and some that have no deadline at all. This is especially true of dynasty leagues, and while this week's column will still […]


Justin Herbert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Matchups We Love - Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 12 Include Bo Nix, De'Von Achane, Quentin Johnston, Calvin Ridley, more

It seems as though fantasy managers were either incredibly disappointed or incredibly excited in Week 11. The output was modest for most players. However, if you had a monopoly on a select few players such as Cooper Kupp, Taysom Hill, or the Detroit Lions, you likely won your week. With the fantasy playoffs roughly three weeks […]


Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Matchups to Target, Avoid (Week 12) - Offensive Line Champs and Chumps

11 weeks have come and gone in the NFL season, which means the fantasy playoffs are just around the corner. Whether you are at the top of the standings or fighting for a playoff spot, Week 12 will feature a unique challenge. Six teams are on bye in Week 12, forcing fantasy managers to get […]


Darnell Mooney - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football WR Injury Reports: Week 12 Updates For Darnell Mooney, Gabe Davis, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen

The season's (first) biggest bye week has arrived. Six teams (Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets) get a week off. That makes it more important for fantasy football that the wide receivers scheduled to play do so. To keep close tabs on all of the news across the NFL, make sure to favorite or bookmark […]