X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

Golf is a fascinating sport. I bet Xander in a matchup at the Wells Fargo and he surrenders a lead to Rory, the only person he needed to beat in the field. Fast forward a week later and the only person Bryson needed to beat to cash our PGA Championship outright, was Xander... I feel like this year we have been running extremely suboptimal on the outright side of things with SEVEN runner ups to go along with our single Jake Knapp Mexico win.

You are who you are, until you are not. Xander Schauffele has been playing FAR too well to have not won a tournament in the last two years. He has been the unanimous second best player this year from a strokes-gained standpoint, yet, any time he has had a chance to win a tournament, he never. Until he won the PGA Championship, draining a 5-foot birdie putt on the last to seal the deal by one stroke. Since 2023, he still needs to win twice in order to recoup your investment in his outright market since he has been so short in that market, yet never having won anything.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Recap of Last Week

When you throw $10 out the window on outrights and $15 on hail-mary parlays that can make a winning week with one hit, we still managed to overcome our $25 "luxury fee" and churn out just about $50 in profit in what I like to call the "bread and butter" bets, where we profited $31.10 in the placement market and our major fade of Sam Burns helped us with $17.39 in profit there.

2024 Summary

Here is the summary of the pre-tournament bets that we have made in the Outright, Placement, and Matchups. 

  • Outrights: -$137.48
  • Matchups: -$12.39
  • Top 5s: $55.69
  • Top 6s: -$1.25
  • Top 10s: $101.48
  • Top 20s: $11.13
  • Top 30s: $22.30
  • Top 40s: -$8.90
  • Total: $30.57

 

Outrights ($10)

Collin Morikawa $0.93 +7500

In my Stat Buffet article you can see the key proximity buckets that we expect here, and we should expect a decent chunk of shots from inside 200 yards (77%). This is a scenario where we have addition by subtraction, as the less shots that take place outside of 200, the better for Collin Morikawa. Over the last 12 months, Collin Ranks 13th in strokes gained from 100-150, 11th in SG from 150-200 yards, while his 200+ numbers rank 72nd in this field. His obvious weakness will be significantly overlooked this week, while what remains an apparent ball striking strength between 100-200 yards will be magnified.

Other statistically relevant metrics that make Collin an appealing bet is his ability to drive his golf ball through a key hole, if that were asked of PGA Professionals, ranking third in accuracy off the tee and 8th in SG OTT on courses shorter than 7,200. At this venue, hitting the fairway is imperative, as the new, firmer greens are not going to be receptive of spinless balls that come out the new Bermuda rough that typically is a much more difficult blade of grass to generate spin out of. If you took a quick peak at Morikawa's other side of the long-iron teeter totter, his around the green game has become sensational, ranking 4th ARG in 2024, and despite only ranking 61st in putting this year, his last sixteen rounds on the greens are averaging +0.6 strokes per round.

Collin Morikawa returning back to his swing coach, Rick Sessinghaus, who he left prior to the 2023 Ryder Cup, is arguably the biggest reason we are going to commit so much of our chips to one golfer. if you take a peek at Collins 2023 SG APP in the graphic above, there is a pink 3, but in 2024, he ranks 25th. If the Sessinghaus can become a Sessinghome, Collin Morkiwa returning as an elite iron player, while having added another 1.5 infinity stones with his ARG (full stone) and Putting (0.5 a stone), is a scary proposition.

Sepp Straka $1.69 (+4500)

Sepp Straka let us down at the PGA Championship, but the formula here with Sepp is simple - his iron play is ELITE right now (2nd over L20 rounds) while his putter (38th) has gained more strokes than 9 of the top 10 approach players over that span. Straka ranks 2nd in total strokes over that stint and has finishes of T8, T11, T5, T16, MC, T16 prior to his missed cut last week. A T29 here last year while losing on approach is enough to believe that he stands a good chance of bettering that finish in his current form. We have had some luck with Straka in the past, hitting him as an outright at the John Deere Classic, so hopefully those vibes can take us to the promised land again.

Billy Horschel $1.27 (+6000)

Buddy! You playing some good golf right now! Billy Horschel won the Corales Puntacana alternate event to add to his four top-12 finishes since the Cognizant. His T8 at the PGA Championship last week is what has us most excited as he gained a stroke per round with his irons, while going nuts with his putter. The putter likely cools down a little, but as a good putter over the course of his career, we can anticipate it to still remain a damage dealer. Heading from a 7,600-yard Valhalla to a restored 7,200 yard venue that will emphasize scrambling and driving accuracy, is another reason why like Big Bad Billy this week!

Keegan Bradley +7000 ($1.09)

If I told you that the golfer who gained the most strokes off the tee at Valhalla is priced at +7000, you simply have to click that button especially when Keegan Bradley has been hitting his irons as well as he has. If the week unfolds in a low scoring fashion, Bradley's lack of putting consistency could get rescued with an elite week of ball striking and par making. However, we will be putting on Bentgrass greens (2nd L36), which is easily his best putting surface, with his putter showing some life since getting into the Bent stretch since Augusta. We are leaning heavily into the ball striking and hoping that at this price, we get some putt luck!

Lee Hodges +12500 ($0.61)

Lee Hodges has a T12 and T24 in his last two starts. In his PGA Championship he gained just shy of 10 strokes on approach. That is likely not going to continue at that level, but after having one of his best weeks on approach behind the week he won the 3M last July. Hodges is also really accurate off the tee and has a T29 and T35 in his two showings here so far!

 

Placings ($85)

Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10 (see Wyndham T10%/T5%). Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.

If you are looking for this kind of information on golfers that are not in this screenshot, my full model is available >>>HERE<<< when you upgrade to our premium packages. Code MANIAC is going to save you 10% when signing up and really helps me out too!

 

Matchups

NO MATCHUPS THIS WEEK.

LAST WEEK: Cameron Young over Sam Burns -115 (FanDuel)

The major track record speaks for itself. The closer Cameron Young climbs to the top of the leaderboard, the less likely Sam Burns has of catching him in a major. Burns has only one major top-20 in his career (T20) but five PGA Tour wins. He has struggled mightily in majors, while Cam Young has thrived. That top-10 rate is rather ridiculous, as Young looks to earn his sixth career major top-10.

 

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $75.96 +1519 (FanDuel)

We are sick of going 3 for 4 ... so Chad Ramey hail mary 3-legger!

Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

RJ Barrett1 hour ago

Listed As Questionable For Sunday
Immanuel Quickley2 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Jerami Grant2 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Sunday
Marcus Smart2 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Anfernee Simons2 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Sunday
Christian Braun2 hours ago

Available On Saturday
Aaron Gordon2 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jamal Murray2 hours ago

Will Play On Saturday Night
Nikola Jokić2 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Cleared To Suit Up Versus The Wizards
Colby Thomas3 hours ago

Sustains Injury On Saturday
Dee Eskridge3 hours ago

Sticking With Dolphins
Josh Giddey3 hours ago

Officially Out On Saturday Night
Ja Morant3 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday Night
JuJu Smith-Schuster3 hours ago

Returning To Chiefs
Josh Rojas3 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Tennessee Titans3 hours ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Thairo Estrada3 hours ago

Removed From Saturday's Contest
Damian Lillard4 hours ago

Available Versus Indiana
Parris Campbell4 hours ago

Headed To Dallas
Nick Kurtz4 hours ago

Exits After Hit-By-Pitch
Giannis Antetokounmpo4 hours ago

Good To Go On Saturday
Jamal Murray4 hours ago

Added To Saturday's Injury Report
Jiri Kulich4 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tobias Myers4 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Brice Turang4 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
Tyler Myers4 hours ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov4 hours ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov4 hours ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Cole Anthony4 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Joel Armia4 hours ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk4 hours ago

Available Saturday
Donovan Mitchell5 hours ago

Questionable Against Orlando
Adam Fox5 hours ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Andre Drummond5 hours ago

Out Against Dallas
Ja Morant5 hours ago

Questionable On Saturday Night
P.J. Washington5 hours ago

Returning On Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles8 hours ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Dante Exum8 hours ago

Diagnosed With A Fractured Left Hand
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Amed Rosario8 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Cam Thomas8 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Jose Trevino8 hours ago

Going For CT Scan
Kirk Cousins8 hours ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Bryce Eldridge8 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers8 hours ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Blake Perkins9 hours ago

Cleared For Light Baseball Activities
Doug Nikhazy9 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jung Hoo Lee9 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday With Back Tightness
Cody Bradford9 hours ago

Won't Throw For At Least Four Weeks
Colorado Rockies9 hours ago

Charlie Condon Out At Least Six Weeks With Broken Wrist
Bryce Miller9 hours ago

Ironing Out The Kinks In Spring Training
Logan Gilbert9 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Mookie Betts9 hours ago

Missing Tokyo Exhibition Games Due To Illness
Jesús Sánchez10 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez To Miss Four Weeks With Oblique Strain
Jon Gray10 hours ago

Has A Fractured Right Wrist
Bobby Witt Jr.10 hours ago

Back In Cactus League Lineup On Saturday
Washington Commanders10 hours ago

Clelin Ferrell Returning To Washington
New York Jets10 hours ago

Kris Boyd Signs With The Jets
Garrett Crochet10 hours ago

Starting On Opening Day
Los Angeles Chargers10 hours ago

Mekhi Becton Inks Deal With Chargers
Tyler Johnson11 hours ago

Links Up With Jets
Kyle Juszczyk11 hours ago

Returns To 49ers
Eeli Tolvanen15 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
WPG15 hours ago

Kyle Connor Strikes Twice On Friday
Jack Roslovic15 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Friday's Victory
Leon Draisaitl16 hours ago

Leads Edmonton To Victory
Liam O'Brien16 hours ago

Exits With Undisclosed Injury
Josh Manson16 hours ago

Exits On Friday
Atlanta Falcons1 day ago

Falcons Agree To Terms With Morgan Fox
Indianapolis Colts1 day ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Pittsburgh Steelers1 day ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Kenny Yeboah1 day ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Avery Williams1 day ago

Signs With Eagles
Kene Nwangwu1 day ago

Jets Re-Sign Kene Nwangwu To One-Year Deal
Simi Fehoko1 day ago

Signing With Cardinals
Kylen Granson1 day ago

Headed To Philadelphia
Karel Vejmelka1 day ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Dustin Wolf1 day ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Mikael Backlund1 day ago

Out Week-To-Week
Sam Colangelo1 day ago

Deemed Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Michael Bunting1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Expected To Return Next Week
Nikolaj Ehlers1 day ago

Good To Go Against Stars
Mackenzie Blackwood1 day ago

Battling Illness, Not Starting On Friday
Roman Dolidze2 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani2 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos2 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez2 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson2 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA2 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos2 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman3 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips4 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith4 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick4 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter4 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young4 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim4 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA4 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman4 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee4 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Power-Steering Failure Foils Tyler Reddick's Bid For Potential Victory
William Byron5 days ago

Recovers From Being Trapped A Lap Down To Finish Sixth
Josh Berry5 days ago

Gives Wood Brothers Team Best Run Since 2021
Alex Pereira5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje6 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Rafael Fiziev6 days ago

Loses Third Fight In A Row
Ignacio Bahamondes6 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 313
Christopher Bell6 days ago

Scores His Third Consecutive Victory Of The Season At Phoenix
Kyle Larson6 days ago

Strong Phoenix Performance Falls Short Of Victory
Chris Buescher6 days ago

Quietly Earns A Top-Five Finish At Phoenix
Alex Bowman6 days ago

Leaves Phoenix With His Best Finish At The Site Since 2016
Zane Smith6 days ago

Quietly Nabs His First Phoenix Top-10 Finish
Jalin Turner6 days ago

Retires After UFC 313 Loss
Iasmin Lucindo6 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 313
Amanda Lemos6 days ago

Dominates At UFC 313
King Green6 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC 313
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

Tyron Smith Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

New York Jets and former long-time Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL for an extended period of time. He's made five All-Pro teams, two with the first team and two with the second team, been selected to eight Pro Bowls, and earned a spot on […]


Bills Defense - Von Miller IDP Rankings, D/ST Streamers, Fantasy Football Team Defense

Von Miller Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller, one of the greatest pass-rushers in NFL history, was released by his team on March 9, 2025. He had signed a six-year, $120 million deal with the team in 2022, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old wasn't able to make it to the end of that contract, so he's now looking for […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Staying Put - Impact Players Re-signed: Aaron Jones, Zach Ertz, Jaylen Warren, more

NFL free agency is a frenzy. As football fans, we love to see the movement around the league. It allows us to dream about the possibility of our team signing a fresh player who could make a serious impact. However, one cannot overlook the impact of re-signing significant contributors. While it is not as exciting […]


Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends To Buy in 2025

My friend Josh used to make me listen to the Bring Me The Horizon song "Diamonds Aren't Forever," which begins with the line "We will never sleep, cause sleep is for the weak." That sentiment rings true in fantasy football dynasty leagues as well. You can't get complacent. You can't stop thinking about how to […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football WR Buy or Sell: Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, and Jordan Addison (2025)

The 2024 NFL Draft class had seven first-round wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze were selected in the top 10. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette were Day 1 selections. More importantly, Nabers and Thomas finished their rookie seasons as top-7 wide receivers in half-point PPR […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers, Draft Targets: Early 2025 Analysis

One of the biggest factors in winning fantasy football teams is finding middle-to-late-round sleepers. With wide receivers typically carrying the most drafted players of any position, it makes sense that taking multiple stabs at the position in search of hitting multiple-round values is the way to set yourself apart in drafts. For 2025, the draft […]


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2025 NFL Free Agency Frenzy: Biggest Winners and Disappointments at Every Fantasy Football Position

NFL franchises will have an opportunity to reshape their rosters before the draft. Fantasy managers will have a chance to read the tea leaves and make measured strikes against their fantasy football opposition ahead of rookie drafts. Savvy managers will use this period to try to get the best return on some previous investments, as […]


DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Free Agency Fantasy Football Analysis: Fallers On New Teams (2025)

With the first wave of NFL free agency coming to an end, several fantasy-relevant players have signed on to new teams. The quarterback carousel still has several dominoes to fall, but Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, and Kenny Pickett have found new homes within the first few days of the new league year. The running back […]


James Conner - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Fallers - Players Trending Down In 2025

Fantasy football players trending "down" can mean a few different things. It can mean aging veterans, a new situation for players, regression in production after a stellar season, a change in coordinators, or all of the above. It doesn't necessarily mean these players won't produce; it's just a warning sign to proceed cautiously. Ultimately, marking […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Free Agency Fantasy Fallout!

Michael F. Florio is back going over the any signings and trades that free agency week brought us! He discusses his winners and losers of players that changed teams - then does the same for players who were not moved but still had their value impacted! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Free Agency Tracker - Updates On Every Free Agent Signing (2025)

The NFL offseason is starting to heat up, and the league's legal tampering period is set to begin on March 10 at noon Eastern. Free agents cannot officially sign until the new league year begins on March 12 at 4 p.m. Eastern, but deals will be agreed to, and news will be coming in quickly […]


Drake Maye - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Players To Target In Deep Leagues

Fantasy football sleepers are what make the game fun. There is nothing like landing an absolute stud in the double-digit rounds of your fantasy draft. The more teams in your league, the more important sleepers become. As the player pool shrinks, it is an absolute must to hit on at least one or two sleepers. […]


DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Avoids, Busts: 2025 NFL Free Agent Signings

The 2025 NFL free-agency period is well underway, and many wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, and running backs have already found their new homes. While some of them are in better landing spots, or at least should continue having solid production relative to their ADP (anticipated draft position) in fantasy football, some of them should […]