RADIO
Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2024 American Express. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.
The golfing gods are relentlessly cruel, blowing Benny An's 4-foot putt offline, and failing to extend the playoff after Grayson Murray dropped a 37-foot birdie putt after hitting a palm tree in the playoff. A truly bizarre turn of events to have our second runner-up of the year. Brutal stuff. But, we dust ourselves off and head to the Californian conundrum that is the American Express.
This article is called Breaking $100, but this week we are going to dial back our budget. As I mentioned to @TeeOffSports on the RotoBaller PGA Show on Monday nights at 9:30 p.m. ET, I don't feel comfortable betting too much on golfers who could have a 15-handicapper standing on his line while lining up an eagle putt. So we are going to be rather thrifty with our $100 this week and limit our exposure in an event that could be called the Volatility Express, which we are not a fan of betting-wise. DFS, on the other hand, will be where we invest the majority of our budget this week because that is where I want to embrace the volatility.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver" all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Prior Week Recap
Last week was about as bad as things could have run for us. We somehow only lost $21.75 despite J.T. Poston finishing solo sixth to miss out on T5 payouts, after Carl Yuan (T4) lost his ball on the 72nd hole and ended up getting a free drop on the fairway because he was "virtually certain" his ball was in the hospitality tent, yet none of the people in the tent found the ball... Justin Rose and Stephan Jaeger had lackluster Sunday rounds to lose their respective bets as well. Our luck will turn around.
Outrights ($10)
The odds market shifted rather quickly Monday afternoon as some steam came in on a few guys we grabbed early Monday morning. If you are interested in getting these picks as I make them on Mondays, jump into our premium discord where you will have access to my early bets and if you decide to roll with the best value, which is the Platinum Package ($269.99 for a full 12 months if you use code "MANIAC"), you will also have access to Spencer's picks as he makes them too along with EVERYTHING else Spence and our "double cup of Joes" have to offer to RotoBaller subscribers!
We are only going to be spending a total of $10 on the outrights this week, but I really like the four guys we have so far. I do think going forward when we have a large outright card, we may have to divert a few more dollars to the top five market as we cashed in on Benny An top-five but still lost -$4.25 in that section of the article. If a golfer is finishing top-five, we need to be covering our outright portion and profiting a little as well. We are learning and adapting, but with a short card this week, a 50/50 split is just fine!
Tom Kim $3.11 @ 30-1 (FanDuel) & $2.71 T5 +500 (BetMGM)
His putter has been a little all over the place, but he is no stranger to bouncing back in that department after a bad putting performance the week before. He also had his worst driving performance of his PGA stroke-play career at this course last year. If he keeps his ball in play like he usually does really well, expect those sassy, saucy sand wedges to drizzle flag sticks with precision and poise.
The books hung a 30-1 out there on Monday morning, with most places 25-1 a day later. He has won three times in the last 18 months, on courses very similar to this (TPC Summerlin, Sedgefield CC). There is a lot to like about Kim and if we get him playing at his best this week, he will have as good a chance as anybody in this field to claim his fourth title of his short career.
Adam Schenk $0.85 @ 110-1 (FanDuel) & $0.97 T5 +1400 (Bet365 <-- who are now paying TIES IN FULL!!!)
There are still 90s out there for Adam Schenk, who is going to go overlooked in models that use averages to derive his metrics. If we grab his 75th percentile of strokes gained over the last 50 rounds, he ranks eighth in this field. In other words, Schenk's 12th-best round over the last 50 is the eighth-best. He has immense upside but his consistency is lacking. That's okay for this kind of bet, as he has six top-10s in his last 15 starts. He makes it to the top of the leaderboard a lot more than these odds give him credit for.
Nick Taylor $0.55 @ 170-1 (FanDuel) & $0.68 T5 +2000 (Bet365)
Nick Taylor is putting together a remarkably consistent run of golf right now, with a T7, T21, and T13 in three of his last four starts. He just about missed the cut at the Sony, but then raced up the leaderboard over the weekend to pass Stephan Jaeger, who we had in a matchup over Taylor. We are going to adopt the good old "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" adage and get him on our card at a number much longer than it should be for a winner on Tour last year and gaining just shy of +6.5 strokes on approach last week. A lot of reward for very little risk here.
Matthieu Pavon $0.47 @ 200-1 (BetRivers) & $0.68 T5 +2000 (Bet365)
One of the shining stars of the rookie class is Matthieu Pavon, who added a T7 at the Sony Open last week to his five other top-10 finishes in his last eight starts. Using my handy dandy KFT 45 Tool, we can see that he tends to play best in easy scoring conditions with a ceiling that ranks in the top five of all the 45 rookies to have got their card, ranking 38th in this field. The number we are getting here for somebody with a really impressive track record makes me feel are getting a golfer at 200-1 that could very easily be sitting around 75-1 and we wouldn't blink an eye!
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($10)
$10 Eric Cole T20 +145 @ Bet365 (Ties PAID IN FULL!!!)
This is going to be the only bet I make in the placement market based on the model. Six of Eric Cole's last seven starts have been top-20 finishes. He is an elite birdie maker and ranks as the fifth-best golfer in the field behind the big four of Scottie, X, Cantlay, and Sungjae.
Matchups ($0)
This event is a passive golf bettor's nightmare. I want nothing to do with seven-hour rounds while I am hoping for my golfer to give it his all to beat another dude we bet him against.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 2-ball Parlay $5 to win $46.87 (Bet365)
Stephan Jaeger is worlds apart in overall and R1 ranking vs. Matthew NeSmith. Jason Day's overall ranking for me is 32 spots better than Lowry, which was good enough to get him on the card here. Sungjae Im and Cameron Champ could not be more polar opposites in skill level. Keith Mitchell is his best self in R1 and R2 while Joel Dahmen typically struggles to get off to a hot start.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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