RADIO
What a week of golf that was in Canada! Nick Taylor clinched his country's Open with a walk off eagle, while Adam Hadwin could barely walk off the green after getting tackled by a security guard for spraying champagne at his buddy. One of the most epic conclusions to a relatively irrelevant tournament in the grand scheme of things on the PGA Tour. Tommy Fleetwood has now edged ahead of Louis Oosthuizen in total top 5 finishes without a win, which is brilliant yet brutal company to be keeping.
We now shift our focus to the US Open where the field contains the world's best players from both fractions of the golf world providing us with options for bets in the third major of the year. Will Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka look for their second major victory this year, or will we have a third maestro to join the major ranks of the 2023 big game hunters? Scottie Scheffler is rattling off unrivaled, ridiculous, generational ball striking numbers, but simultaneously putting like me. It's like Steph Curry forgot how to dribble, but when passed the ball in 3-point range, cannot miss. Can Scottie gain strokes putting this week? That is the question everyone wants to know.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Some Self Love
If you are a regular reader of this article, you will very well know that this year has been a bit of a struggle on the betting front. However, before I scare away any new readers, we have made changes and after decreasing our sample size from 2022 and 2023, to just 2023 stats, the results have been much better. So much so, that in last week's article we hit 9 of the 10 bets the model suggested, with the end result being a whopping $90 in profit for the week after deducting the cost of outrights and the farewell fiver. To put this into perspective, the way we bet outrights a win would pay out $130, yet we netted $90 off of placements and matchups, which is really exciting stuff!
I don't usually like to brag about success, particularly that of short-term nature, but with the amount of bitching and "real talks" we have done this year, we have afforded ourselves a "self love" segment to celebrate ALMOST hitting every bet we placed last week. That does not happen often in the years I have been betting on golf, as the majority of bets are "plus money". Anyway, I don't have the lung capacity to keep blowing smoke for this long so we will move on to some US Open outrights.
Outrights ($15)
The field is loaded, with the best bacon, cheese, seasoning, and ketchup from various tours around the world. We also have some small fries in the field too, in the form of amateurs and "exemptionless" professionals that took part in the "longest day in golf" last week, qualifying in 36 holes for the US Open. A wild day of golf that could possibly be more nerve wracking than actually playing in the event you qualified for. We have 4 outrights that will net us $105 or more if we win, with our $15 spent on these bets affording us about 8 events to hit a winner in order to make a profit in this part of the betting card. Let's meet the men of the hour.
Justin Rose ($1.74 @ +6500 on Circa)
Usually we start with the lowest odds and work our way towards the longer shots, but we bet Justin Rose at 20-1 to win last week and he was sitting in 2nd place before he got to the 8th hole, where he, as the 2nd best iron player in the field, hit an iron off the par 4 tee box to be safe, BUT somehow landed up hitting his ball into a river that should never have been in play, having to retee with driver... what. a. disaster. So, we are going back to the man that rinsed away his chances of victory last week, in the hope that the water was of holiest quality and his game returns to the form that saw him win a US Open in 2013.
We are not just betting him again to feel pain once more, but because he actually suits this course rather well as a top-10 iron player in the field. In a major where danger (like that Canadian river...) can derail a round at any given moment, Rose hits the 8th-least poor shots in the field, losing over -0.5 on a single approach shot less often than most playing this week. For an elderly PGA Tour pro, the 42-year-old has gained the 5th-most strokes on approach shots 200+ yards from the green this year. He is also 15th in accuracy off the tee, which should help him locate the correct portion of the sloped fairways LACC has. His lack of distance should be nullified to a degree if he can squeeze out extra yardage off the tee by hitting the firm and fast fairways regularly.
Rose is a really solid iron player, but he is an even better putter, gaining the most strokes putting in majors in his 46 rounds of recorded major play (min 10 rounds). With a putting stroke as elegant as the Englishman sounds, we head to a course that has Bentgrass greens which is a surface that he finds as appetizing as the ice cream we have seen him repeatedly get brain freeze from on that MasterCard advertisement, ranking 8th in the field. Maybe he had an ice cream on that 8th tee box?? Despite typically struggling around the greens (52nd in majors), our ice cream pounding pick enters the week gaining the 17th most strokes in that area over the last 24 rounds which is encouraging.
At 65-1 he is simply playing far too well to leave off the card after being on him for that last few torturous weeks. Did I mention that I became a Rose-bud back in 2009 when he was kind enough to take a photo with me and two other people who I cropped out? As somebody who has literally been embraced by this incredible golfer, it sure would be awesome to have him win this week and make some bucks off of it too!
Viktor Hovland ($6.67 @ +1700 on Bet365)
I made this bet on Tuesday, as I just could not figure out who I wanted to select at less than 20-1 on the odds board. Ultimately, we landed up going with Viktor Hovland who has been a factory of major strokes gained in his last three big events. A T4, T7 and T2 at the PGA Championship are a string of results that just seem to be a giant foam finger pointing upwards in the direction of an inevitable major victory. Now, is it a good thing that his last event was a win at Memorial? What if I told you that Scottie Scheffler also won his 3rd PGA Tour event the start before winning the Masters? If history repeats itself, Hovland could parlay that momentum he gained at Jack's Place and win a US Open while he is feeling frisky and fearless.
The reason he has been in contention in majors and just won at Muirfield Village, is because his blue-collar ball striking has been joined on the production line by a short game that recently returned from Hogwarts, now possessing the magic needed to get out of greenside trouble with a confident and crisp flick of both wrists. Since the Wells Fargo Championship, Hovland has gained strokes ARG, albeit a tenth of a stroke per round, that is still remarkably better than the snot flavored jellybeans he was munching on around the greens before that (losing -0.33).
Hovland finished T4 at the Open gaining ARG in all 4 of his strolls around St. Andrews, which may have to do with how much he putted from off the green, but he almost certainly would have had to hit a few chips from tight lies, which he seemed to also handle just fine when in major contention. Outside of a disastrous 2022 Masters, Hovland has averaged +0.36 strokes around the greens in majors, which is exciting considering he has lost strokes in that area each of the 5 years he has been on Tour. Two paragraphs to address his chipping is not where I saw this going, but it's really the only deficiency in his game, that he now seems to have a handle on.
In 42 major rounds of golf our stud has gained just shy of half a stroke per round putting which should continue this week as he is the 3rd-best putter on Bentgrass from 5-15 feet, while sitting inside the top 10 on that surface from all distances. His ball striking is 8th in the field over the last two-dozen rounds and in his major career, Hovland has the 12th best strokes gained on approach and 21st best driving performances. The Viktor Hovland production line is operating as efficiently as it ever has, and this factory is about to get a major upgrade to its output by week's end!
Cam Smith ($3.64 +3200 @ Circa)
The mullet-maestro returns to our betting card with a cheeky 30-1 still available at FanDuel. As a self-proclaimed Smith super supporter, we still know which courses suit the Ozzie, not betting him at Oak Hill because of the thick rough that saw him finish T9 despite losing -2.4 strokes off the tee. In his press conference this week he mentioned he is hitting his driver much better and with the course supposedly being rather relaxed off the tee, we could see a driving performance similar to St. Andrews and Southern Hills, where he gained +0.6 per round in those two majors. A neutral off the tee week will be more than satisfactory, though, and as long as his driver doesn't lose him the tournament, the rest of his game can sure win it for him.
The frustrating part about LIV is that we have no strokes gained stats to lean on, but the Cam Smith blueprint is simple - avoid disaster with the driver, pepper flags on approach with those sizzling irons, and then let. that. putter. cook! Only a handful of golfers have ever gained 10+ strokes putting in a week. Cam Smith is on that list ... TWICE. He is capable of going scorched earth with the flat stick and so long as his driver affords him a green in regulation, NO birdie putt is unmakeable. He truly is one of the best putters in the world and the best part is that he sometimes putts the best when under pressure, winning both the Players and The Open when he eclipsed double-digit strokes gained rock rolling.
If this course lands up playing a little easier than we expect, Smith also has a record breaking -34 win at the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, which has elements similar to that of LACC. Although it has not been mentioned by many, I have a weird feeling that this course has elements of St. Andrews too, with some leniency off the tee with firm, fast, links-like playing conditions. Los Angeles Country Club will see the "ball on the floor" more than most US Opens, which requires the type of creativity that oozes from the top of that magical mullet to the toe of that scorching Scotty Cameron putter. Any time we can get the Champion Golfer of the Year at odds in the 30s we place a few bucks on a viewing experience that has been nothing short of sensational the last few times he has won.
Tyrrell Hatton ($2.85 +4200 @ Circa)
One of the fieriest personalities on Tour comes in the form of the 5 foot 8 inches of pure dynamite that is Tyrrell Hatton. Seemingly always one shot away from spontaneous combustion, Hatton has somehow channeled the negative energy that could power half of China were it containable, into five consecutive top-15s that include a 5th and two third-place finishes. The most impressive of those results is the T15 at the PGA Championship, clawing his way back to +1 for the event after shooting +7 on his opening nine. Had he shot, -1 on those first few holes, he would have ended up in a tie for 2nd. However, the fact of the matter is, he didn't. But, what we do know, is that he has the potential to excel in major conditions if he can just get out of his own way.
His level of play has been fantastic lately, gaining the 4th-most strokes over the last 24 rounds with his putting (6th), around the green (11th) and ball striking (18th) all ranking inside the top 20 in this field. Although his approach has been lacking similar output to the rest of his game, he is still very capable of hitting good shots, ranking 7th in weighted good shot % which means he gains over +0.5 on a single approach shot, a lot. He is just playing such good golf right now that it's tough to imagine the lesser spotted level-headed-Hatton mixing it up for the US Open on Sunday.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($40)
RBC Canadian Recap
$80.40 was made off our $56 we invested in placements last week. Brendon Todd was suggested by the model, but after his WD at the Memorial we did not place that bet, and despite entering the weekend in T2, he finished outside the top 20, which turned out to be a great fade on our part. Aaron Baddeley missed his first cut since the Honda Classic in February, to hand us our only loss in the placement market.
US Open Placements
Bet365 has recently launched in Iowa and their placement odds are amazing. If we were to use FD and DK etc, Xander would have not met threshold. Wyndham Clark is +100 on FanDuel for those of you who have that. I got too excited using my free bets and all that jazz at 365 that I forgot to look at other books to be sure all odds at 365 were the best.
- Xander Schauffele T20 +110 $7
- Tyrrell Hatton T20 +150 $7
- Wyndham Clark T40 -115 $7
- Denny McCarthy T40 +100 $6
- Patrick Reed T40 +100 $7
- Eric Cole T40 +170 $6
Matchups ($40)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
the Memorial Recap (3-0-0) +$27.79
US Open Matchups
We had two plus money matchups last week which was really nice, but doesn't happen often. This week we have 4 bets that are laying juice, in a PGA vs LIV battle, as we are fading 3 LIV golfers this week and Alex Noren.
- Rose over DeChambeau -120
- English over Spanish (aka Garcia) -114
- Rose over DJ -108
- Power over Noren -137
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Sahith Theegala $5 Top 10 +800
Last week could have been even more remarkable had Ludvig Aberg placed inside the top-20 at +250 (T25 one shot out of T20). Theegala has played this course 30+ times per his Sirius XM interview. He is essentially Cam Smith lite, as his driver is all over the planet with the rest of his game creating fireworks on approach, around the green and putting, which have allowed him to record 4 top-10 finishes in his last 12 cut events, safely navigating his way to the weekend in all 12 of them. He has been a cut making machine and now gets to play just a few minutes away from where he grew up! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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