RADIO
Golf is truly the most bizarre sport. If I took you back 2 years into the past and told you that Keegan Bradley gained 7 strokes putting and won a Travellers Championship at -23 under par, you would tell me the world has fallen off its axis. In the 22 rounds prior to Bradley's win, he lost -0.5 per round on approach, with no finish better than T10 since his runner up finish at the Farmers ages ago. Yet, simply because he was playing golf in Cromwell, CT, a two-and-a-half-hour drive from where he grew up in Woodstock, Vermont, his game was set ablaze for four magnificently memorable days.
We had a horse in the race, by the name of Eric Cole, who was sitting in 4th place and playing fantastic golf before he made the most random quadruple bogey on the back 9 of his third round, hitting three tee shots on a par 4. He has been flashing some impressive form and would not be surprised to see him win an event soon. The rest of the card showed little to no ambition of contending, leaving us very disinterested in Keegan's win.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Outrights ($15)
We are not quite engaging 8, but we are still sending a blitz of 7 golfers, who should have the birdie power to go low enough this week on a soft Detroit Golf Club. Our outright budget is back to $15 this week as we like our chances on a few more guys.
Max Homa ($6.42 @ +2000 on FanDuel)
The majority of our budget getting dumped onto the three-time winner this season in hopes of him putting his way to a fourth win in Detroit. Homa is 2nd in the field in BoB% and has a T8 and T9 in his last three non-majors. The putter has been hot and cold but has still averaged +0.77 per round over the last 12 rounds on Bentgrass. I am going to be completely honest with you and say that nothing else, from a statistical perspective stands out as to why Max will be in the mix this week. 20-1 early on Monday morning was a number that was tough to pass up considering he has been incredible at closing out tournaments when he finds himself in the mix.
Something about his game that I have noticed, is that he is hitting a lot more draws than usual. He mentioned at the Farmers that his caddie only allows him 2 or 3 draws per event, but while watching his Friday round I noticed him hitting multiple shots with draw shape in a single round, which may explain why his iron play has been a little off the boil in the two months since the Masters? If he starts to find some more confidence with a new shot shape on approach, we know that putter is capable of converting those birdie looks.
When you hit a draw, your ball flies further, and in his last three starts off the tee he has driven the ball +8.7 yards further than field average, which he has only done on two occasions in his other 13 starts. His game appears to be morphing from a controlled fade to a power draw and at a course where distance off the tee seems to help get into the winner's circle, Homa is trending in the right direction. All we ask for from the World No. 9 is to give us a chance at winning on Sunday afternoon.
Sepp Straka ($1.93 @ +7000 on FanDuel)
Sepp Straka is attempting to wear an Iron-Man type suit comprised of disobedient, recycled Diet-Coke cans. In theory, that could be a badass looking suit, but when he hits the button for it to come flying to his rescue, only half the cans latch themselves onto his Austrian dad bod, not quite providing the desired overall outcome regardless of the glimmer and gleam that his recent form has sporadically flashed lately.
His OTT game has been the sole supplier of consistent strokes gained, sitting 26th in SG OTT over the last two dozen rounds, which should provide him with a multitude of opportunities from advantageous approach positions. In the 12 rounds that included the PGA Championship, Charles Schwab Challenge and the Memorial, Straka was averaging +1.33 per round on approach. Something random in each of those three events made sure that he finished no better than T7, but that shiny silver approach play was only two starts ago, which we are hoping can come to his rescue this week at a course that he has fond memories on the greens.
Sepp Straka has played this event four times, missing the cut twice and finishing 8th and 11th in his first two appearances. Despite missing the cut the last two times, he is averaging over stroke per round putting on these greens, which is very exciting considering how well he is driving the ball right now. If we can have some of that lagging approach play show up this week and Sepp continues to putt lights out on these greens, at 70-1 we hope that the full diet coke body suit shows up and he putts his way to victory in Detroit.
Brandon Wu ($1.69 @ +8000 on DraftKings)
The first of the #YuWuCrew on our card is Brandon Wu, who (watch out for owls responding to reading that out loud) is the 12th best birdie maker in the field. The reason for his birdie ability is his 18th ranked weighted good shot percentage, knocking his approach shots close enough to gain +0.5 strokes on a single approach shot, often leaving a very makeable birdie putt, which is exactly what we need this week.
Wu may rank 69th in recent approach play, but if you take a look at his approach numbers in the 20 rounds of non-elevated events this year, he is gaining half a stroke per round. His putter has also been much more reliable in these events, gaining +1.12 in his last 12 rounds on the greens. All of this leaves Wu with the fifth-best strokes gained total in non-elevated events (min 10 rounds), which gives us hope that he can find himself in the mix on Sunday once more, while the majority of the superstars sit on their couches watching him do his thang!
Kevin Yu ($1.09 @ +12000 on DraftKings)
Step on up #YuWuCrew number 2! Kevin Yu has only played 5 times in 2023, but in those 5 starts he has a T21 at the Sony Open and a T7 at Pebble Beach. His birdie percentage stats are third in the field and his par 5 scoring is 9th, which are two key metrics we will be seeking from our selections. He is a ball striking beast, leading the field in SG OTT, but gets a little shy when he finds himself on the greens. However, at 120-1 we will hope for a bit of putt luck and expect that ball striking to afford the Yu man a plethora of birdie and eagle looks this week.
Austin Eckroat ($1.68 @ +8000 on FanDuel)
Austin Eckroat has gone from being a PGA Kid, to a PGA Billy Goat since his T2 at the Byron Nelson. He followed that up with a T16, T30, T10 and a T24 in his next four starts. His ball striking has been rather patchy, going through stints of exceptional iron play and then losing in consecutive rounds. The Travellers was one of those weeks, gaining off the tee all week, but losing roughly half a stroke on approach in each of the four days. If the putter can continue to peak on Bentgrass greens and the iron play we saw at the US Open shows up again, Eckroat could be looking to jump into that winner's circle.
Adam Schenk ($1.09 @ +12000 on FanDuel)
Having missed the cut on the number in his last two starts, Adam Schenk sits right behind Brandon Wu in sixth place on strokes gained in non-elevated events. In his last 10 starts, four of his six missed cuts came at elevated events / majors, in the midst of becoming a dad. Chaotic stuff. However, amidst the chaos, he rattled off a 2nd at the Valspar, lost in a playoff at the Charles Schwab, and then finished T7 at the Memorial. Schenk is a boom or bust kind of golfer who is ideal for an outright bet in the triple digits, as his three top-10 finishes are enough to go back to him at 120-1. Surely the next time he finds himself in contention he walks away with a trophey?
Joseph Bramlett ($0.88 @ +15000 on FanDuel)
If we were to look for a bunch of ingredients needed to make the perfect Rocket Mortgage Classic omelet, Bramlett would provide the majority of them for this week. Although he doesn't hit them close often enough (good shot %), he hits a lot of greens in regulation (5th). Joseph is also a monster off the tee, sitting inside the top 5 in driving distance which is the reason a 150-1 long shot also ranks 17th in birdie or better % and 24th in par 5 scoring.
His two most recent missed cuts came at positional tracks like Colonial CC and TPC River Highlands, but when he is allowed to rev up that engine and let his driver roar, he has a T10 at Mexico Open, T19 at Byron Nelson and a T16 at the Memorial, which are all driver intensive venues. The missing ingredient is his putting that we just won't mention much more of, but that is one of the most volatile stats on tour and has gained putting in two of his last four starts. We are firing up the frying pan and cooking up a Bramlett omelet to devour at this week's Rocket Mortgage Classic.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($40)
Recap of Last Week
Last week we missed out on both our T20 bets, but the boys at the bottom came through for us in the T40 market, salvaging this part of the article for $7 profit. Kevin Yu was sitting inside the top 10 after R1 and somehow finished T56, while Max Homa missed the cut on the number and Tom Hoge lost -4.5 strokes on Sunday to slide all the way down to T60. Damage limited.
This Week's Placements
No Brendon Todd or Akshay Bhatia as the model likes them far too much compared to the results they are putting out there. $5 on each of the following 8 placement bets
- Nate Lashley T20 +400
- Austin Eckroat T20 +225
- Vincent Norrman T20 +500
- Brandon Wu T40 +130
- Kevin Yu T40 +163
- Dylan Wu T40 +163
- Hary Hall T40 +188
- Andrew Novak T40 +250
Matchups ($40)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
Recap Last Week (0-3-0) -$40
Woof, Shane Lowry only managed to finish T19, yet Sahith and Homa both could not get the job done. Hayden Buckley missed the cut and then disclosed he had a rib issue, but CT Pan still could not beat him. Rough week on the matchup front. We will bounce back this week.
This Week's Matchups
$10 on each of the following matchups
- Svensson o Noren +100
- Suh o Detry -110
- Kim o Davis -155
- Thomas o Davis -140 (Round 1)
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Rickie Fowler $5 Top 5 +360
This week we can call this the Fomo Fiver, as we are basically just trying to cover our tail if Rickie Fowler wins this week. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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