Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship

The intro to last week's article was ranting about how 14 golfers were priced beneath 25-1, yet Wyndham Clark ran away with the hardware at 75-1. Trying to find golfers who are good at golf, but who are also good at winning is something of an art, as Wyndham has fizzled away on Sunday's a few too many times in the past. Maybe there is something about repeatedly finding yourself in that position that can help you overcome those Sunday nerves. Maybe it is worth betting somebody like that up to 50-1 despite their prior Sunday failures, as the more dudes you have at the party the more likely you are to go home with the girl?

Cameron Young on the other hand has basically been kicked out of the last two parties for blacking out before the sun even set. Somebody with his talent and ball striking ability barely making the cut both of his last two outings and then contending for last place over the weekend has been massively frustrating. His par 5 antics in particular have been bewildering as he simply refused to take advantage of the majority of the par 5s with an iron in his hand from the middle of the fairway. He also butchered the driveable par 4 14th all week long. These kinds of course management mishaps with >Paul Tesori< on the bag make them even more blundersome. Get it together guys, because we are probably going to be betting Cam at the PGA next week.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Outrights

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We only have 4 outrights this week and they start at 60-1. I am adopting a wait and see approach yet again this week, as nobody really popped off the board for me outside of our four longer shots. We are saving up some bankroll to go aggressive in a week where we feel we have an edge!

Tom Hoge ($3 @ +6000 on BetRivers)

Tom Hoge is the best in the field at hitting good shot's from the weighted approach proximities this course presents. With 70% of shots coming from 150+ this is no surprise as Hoge is one of the best long iron players in the world. He grades as third in total strokes gained on approach from the same weighted proximites because his poor shot avoidance rate is not nearly as spectacular as Scottie Scheffler's, which leads the field. But, if you are better at hitting good shots than the best player in the field with odds of +350, you are going to find yourself on our card at 60-1.

Hoge is also impressive on the birdie or better front, ranking third in the field when it comes to making budgies throughout the week. His par 5 scoring is not the worst at #12, despite having one of the rustier touches around the greens. Hoge is somebody who thrives on Bentgrass putting surfaces, with only 24 other professionals making more putts from five to fifteen feet than our guy! Despite only making 56% of his cuts in his last 36 starts, he has the 3rd-best top-10 rate in the field at 22%. When he makes the cut he typically capitalizes on his impressive play and with all the parts needed to win this week, he just needs to assemble them in a measured fashion and take down the world #2 in his home state - no biggie.

Michael Kim ($1.5 @ +10000 on BetRivers)

Michael Kim ran away with the John Deere Classic winning by 8 shots in 2018. He got off to a slow start but is finding his feet on tour and just recorded his 2nd top 10 of the season at the Wells Fargo Championship, making that 4 top 20s in his last 9 starts. He is starting to show some form and after gaining 8 strokes ball striking last week, Kim may have found something with his swing down in North Carolina. He hits the 10th most good shots in this field (now 9th after Spieth WD) and is 18th in SG Putting over the last 24 rounds. Those are two combinations that should promote a multitude of birdies getting made this week, which will be necessary to get into the 20s under par, which he showed he could do at the JDC (-27).

Jimmy Walker ($1 @ +15000 on BetRivers)

There is a lot to like about Jimmy Walker who now heads back to his home state of Texas after finishes of T14, T15, T25, and T22 in his last quartet of events. Walker has done the majority of his scoring with the putter, while having the odd spike round on approach. His long iron play grades out as 21st in the field and with roughly a third of shots coming from that range this week, we should see Jimmy towards the top of the leaderboard for a 5th consecutive start. What an awesome story that would be if the Texas native bounced back from WW3 with Lyme Disease and won a PGA event after sneaking back onto the tour thanks to 16 LIV golfers' departure vaulting him up to 50th on career money exemption list, affording him the opportunity to tee it up this year. Go Jimmy!

MJ Daffue ($1 @ +15000 on BetRivers)

Since the Valspar, MJ Daffue has been putting really well lately and has gained +13.5 strokes putting in 12 of his last 14 rounds. He lost -3.36 in round 1 of the Mexico and -2.58 in round 4 of the Wells Fargo (barely missing out on our +335 T40 by finishing T47th). With somebody who runs that hot with the putter, if we can avoid a blow up round on the greens throughout the week, his putter is capable of doing a lot of the necessary scoring down in McKinney, Texas. Daffue ranks 35th in putting from 5 to 15 feet on Bentgrass and also tends to handle Par 5s rather well (35th). At 150-1 there is enough upside to warrant a bet on my countryman who will be looking for his 4th top 25 finish in seven starts.

Live add opportunities

Keep an eye out for my daily showdown articles that I do throughout the event as I will most likely be adding on or two guys live if the opportunity presents itself. Round 3 PGA DFS Showdown Slate Picks - The 2023 Wells Fargo Championship | Fantasy News (rotoballer.com)

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Placings

Last week we had two top-20 bets and three top-40 bets (two maniac overrides) and we had ourselves a tough week that was very close to being a profitable week had Tom Kim not doubled his 2nd last hole and MJ Daffue bogeying all three holes of the green mile. So close, yet so far to lose $27 in the placement market.

• Sungjae Im T20 +130 (T8): +$13
• Tom Kim T20 +270 (T23...): -$10
• JT Poston T40+150 (MC): -$10
• Sam Ryder T40 +250 (MC): -$10
• MJ Daffue T40 +335 (T47): -$10

This week we only have two placement bets that the model kicked out and we are going to try take advantage of our three long shot outrights finishing inside the top 20/10 as maniac overrides (777).

$20 Tom Hoge T20 +210 on FanDuel

Hoge finished inside the top 20 36% ( of the time and should find himself very comfortable around a venue that requires a lot of long irons.

$20 Ryan Moore T40 +440 on FanDuel

Moore has a 21% T40 rate in his last two-dozen starts and has finished T7 and T33 in two of his last 8 starts. His long iron play should suit this course really well and he is a solid putter.

The next 3 bets will be $8 on a top 20 and $8 on a top 10.

$8/$8 Jimmy Walker T20/T10 +400/+1000 on BetRivers

$8/$8 MJ Daffue T20/T10 +500/+1100 on FanDuel

$8/$8 MJ Daffue T20/T10 +320/+500 on FanDuel

Matchups

Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.

Last week: $21 Adam Hadwin over Beau Hossler -105 (Circa): **Hadwin missed the cut on the number and Beau finished T47 gaining the 2nd most strokes around the green all week with +3.2 of them coming on Thursday to make the cut... woof.**

The Farewell Fiver

Scottie Scheffler -110 Top 5: $5.50

This is a defensive farewell fiver as Scottie Scheffler is EASILY the best player in the field. If he wins or top-5s this week, at least we will make our money back on our outright portion of the card.  Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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