RADIO
As my good friend and RotoBaller PGA colleague said on The Turn Podcast this week, "The Septic Tank" gets us on the board for this article in 2023. It has been an absolute grind this year, with what feels like a million close calls over the last few months, only to have Diet Coke Iron Man engage the thrusters early on Sunday and post a clubhouse lead of -21, doubling his final hole to shoot .... 62 (-9). I have never had to sweat an entire back nine of golf without my golfer being in the mix, which truly shows how ... exSepptional that round was by our guy!
This week we are heading to the Scottish Open where we are blessed with a stark change in scenery and an even more noticeable increase in field strength despite Jon Rahm and Tony Finau not playing this week. The weather looks like we are going to experience winds in the teens for most of the week with a slight lull on Friday morning, making the PM AM wave seem like they should have a slight advantage, which both of our outrights will be playing in.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($20)
We are feeling cheeky after our Sepp outright last week, and after placing a bet at 55-1 early on Monday, we waited for tee times to come on Tuesday and fell in love with somebody at the top of the board. As a result, we are going to be sitting at roughly 6X return on our investment this week, which is a little more aggressive than we typically try to be, usually sitting in the 7X to 12X range depending on the week. But, we are feeling frisky and are willing to be a little more risky over in Scotland.
Scottie Scheffler ($17 @ +750 on BetRivers ... +950 on DK if you use the +300 boost promo)
We managed to hit Scottie Scheffler at 14-1 back in 2022 when he won the Masters and this week are going back to the ball-striking phenom at roughly half the odds. Scheffler has been playing intergalactic golf on the ball striking front, teeing it up with the likes of Thanos, Zeus, and a few other gods of their respective galaxies. He leads the world in, deep breath, strokes gained: Off The Tee, Approach and Bogey Avoidance, with Birdie % and Par 5 Scoring in 2nd place this week. His ARG strokes gained is 4th in the field, which is mightily impressive considering that is a cumulative stat that is majorly impacted by the number of greens in regulation he hits (4th). Simply, out. of. this. world. kinda metrics from Scheffler tee to green.
We will now return back to the reality, where the ball striking god seems to frequent us mere mortals on the putting green. His last 24 rounds find him 131st in SG putting in this field and funnily enough, is the exact same ranking for season long putting. However, the playground has shifted from the shimmering shine of US golf courses that see many greens grade out as fast putting surfaces. In Scotland, we head to a putting surface that has to be slow in order to avoid the winds whipping Pro Vs across the greens, which, if strokes gained putting on slow surfaces is a reliable metric, should suit Scottie in Scotland.
Over his last 50 rounds on either average or slow greens, Scheffler ranks 52 in the field in putting. Halving that sample size, we get him to 47th, but if we take a look at his most recent 12 rounds on these stagnant surfaces, he jumps all the way to 20th in putting, which, for the god of earthly golf, is more than enough to lure us in at single bullet range. If Scheffler gains strokes putting on these slow greens and his tee-to-green game remains true to its baseline, consider this tournament all but over.
Wyndham Clark ($3 @ +5500 on BetRivers)
For most of Monday there were 50s on Wyndham Clark, which, as the very recent US Open Champion, seemed a little disrespectful. At the time of writing this article, he has slid to mid 30s, but if you use the +950 DK boost on Scottie, you should have enough budget left over to still indulge in Clark Kent. He is having a heroic season, having won the Wells Fargo and then the US Open. What is stop superman from continuing a run in Scotland?
His game is extremely well rounded, with accuracy off the tee posing as his only kryptonite, this course seems wide open enough to allow those booming drives that rank 5th in distance to leave him with a lot less into greens than most humans playing this week. His accuracy is 108th in this field, which is worthy of the kryptonite tag, BUT, none of the other 23 metrics incorporated into my model, does he rank worse than 42nd. He really is bulletproof in most areas of his game.
He has multiple superpowers, gaining the 2nd most weighted strokes on approach to mirror this courses layout, while gaining the 2nd most strokes putting over the last 24 rounds. Those are the two areas he ranks 2nd, with par 5 scoring, bogey avoidance, driving distance and recent form all sitting inside the top 10 in this field full of stars. The Superman cape is going to be flapping in the wind, while the fans this week are going to be clapping in the wind as the US Open champ continues to reach for the pinnacle of excellence in pursuit of his 3rd win in 6 starts.
Sepp Straka ($1.93 @ +6000 on FanDuel)
***We are going to leave this write up here from last week, just to relish in our success for a little longer. It has been such a grind, so we are enjoying having hit a winner for the first time in a while.
Redemption tour? Holy cow! T4 heading into Saturday and then starting your round with bogey, double-bogey to lose -7.05 strokes (76) in the midst of a birdie fest screams like you ran out of Diet Coke on Friday night, Sepp? Can we maybe continue to lean on that approach play that has gained +1.5 per round in 16 of the last 22 rounds he has played? He also landed up losing strokes putting at the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the first time in 4 starts...
We are going to hope that Diet Tony Stark can reassemble his aluminum Diet Coke Man suit and get it functioning at optimal capacity this week after being right in the mix before recording his worst round of the year and 8th worst round in 377 strolls around any course in my database... what... the... heck??? Sepp? Hopefully he can shake that round from his memory and bounce back to victory at a price that is ultra-affordable for somebody with multiple playoffs and a win on his resume, in a field, that is, arguably, as strong as my left arm (I am right-handed).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($35)
Recap of Last Week (+$15.10)
Kevin Yu finishes T6 at +325 and Adam Schenk finished T4 at +163 for our top 20 bets, while Nate Lashley took care of business for us in the top 40 market at +163 to profit $15.10 in the placement market.
This Week's Placements
$5 on each of the following bets in green, who have AM tee times, AND Eric Cole who is just too appealing at +490. The model is kicking out a lot of value, but there are not many DPWT players inside the top 40, which, by the end of the week will more than likely have a handful of Euros in there.
- Tyrrell Hatton +100 T20
- Wyndham Clark +165 T20
- Corey Conners +240 T20
- Eric Cole +490!!! T20
- Harry Hall +250 T40
- Austin Eckroat +195 T40
- Ben Griffin +2775 T40
Matchups ($40)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
Recap Last Week (0-0-0) No Action.
This Week's Matchups
- Harman over Detry -110 $12
- Hatton over Fitz -140 $15
- Clark over Lowry -125 $13
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Padraig Harrington $5 +1200 Top 10
Denny T5 went down in flames as he finished T6, being the only dude to shoot -2 or worse that finished inside the top 10 (he shot -1 in R4 ... yikes). This week we are taking a long shot on Padraig Harrington to finish top-10 at almost double the odds we have Scheffler to win. He is back in Europe and is playing sneaky good golf despite spending most of his time on the champions tour. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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