RADIO
Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.
Golf betting is so tilting. Adam Scott had two rounds of golf where he shot -7 and -5, for a total of -12, which is the score he ended his week on. The winner of the tournament finished at -20. Had he managed to shoot -4 in each of the other two rounds, he would have been in a playoff. What is even more gross, is the fact that he decided not to play the 3M Open, despite sitting outside the top-70 in FedEx Cup points, finished T7 last week and ended the year 72nd, missing the playoffs for the first time in their 17-year existence. Not good.
What makes golf betting even more difficult, is choosing which information to adapt to rapidly, and which information to be patient about. Lucas Glover switched his putter to a broomstick recently which saw him have his second-best putting performance of the year. He also had the best approach week of his season, gaining 9 strokes on approach the week he has his second-best putting performance. Betting on this game can make you want to pull your hair out... But congratulations to Lucas who is a very deserving winner on the PGA Tour after some dark times with the putter over the years.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($15)
We went a little light on the card last week, so we will go back to $15 on the outright market this week with four golfers who have what it takes to win at TPC Southwind. This approach leaves in the 7X return range, but after betting $10 last week, we are averaging around 8X usually.
Patrick Cantlay ($7.13 @ +1700 on Bet365)
This golf course demands accuracy off the tee and a well round game to deal with below average green in regulation rates, which Patrick Cantlay has. It is not often that somebody who is top 20 in driving distance finds themselves top 10 in driving accuracy, but Patrick Cantlay is indeed one of those freaks off the tee. A combination of distance and precision see him grade out as the third best driver of the ball in this field behind World No. 1 and 2, Scottie and Rory.
Once the first domino falls off the tee in the right direction, Cantlay will have to rely on his short game to get the job done, as his iron play has not necessarily been all that impressive this year. However, he had his best approach week at the Travellers Championship, gaining just shy of 8 strokes, which is also a very wedge and mid-iron friendly track where he finished T4.
From a comp course perspective, add phenomenal finishes at Harbour Town to his T4 three starts ago. Cantlay will be looking to lean on that putter that can go scorched earth at any given moment and a short game that has served him well many years on tour. He is due for a win this year and now that the playoffs are rolling through town, expect Playoff Patty Ice to freeze the field and claim yet another playoff victory.
Viktor Hovland ($2.64 @ +4500 on BetRivers)
Viktor Hovland is second in weighted good shot percentage, which means that at this course, from these specific proximities, he should afford himself the second most birdie chances by gaining over half a stroke on a single approach shot. Off the tee, his superhero ball striking remains as glorious as his iron play, ranking 4th OTT in his last 24 rounds. On shorter courses he has the accuracy needed to still rank inside the top-10 in this field when course yardage falls below 7,200.
Hovland has now won on US soil, which was the only criteria holding him back from a Hovlander photoshop, which, if you are fan of the show "The Boys", may not seem like the character profile Hovland would embody, but it makes for a cool looking graphic. A trait that used to be toxic and tumultuous, is his around the green play, which is now top 30 over the last 24 rounds. MUCH better than the 54th ranking he owns for the season as his chipping has held him back from immense glory many times in the past, but now that it is fixed, that cape will be fluttering fearlessly behind him on route to his second big-time victory this year.
Keegan Bradley ($2.38 @ +9000 on BetMGM)
We mentioned that we liked the Travellers as a comp course for this week, and Keegan Bradley just won at the Travellers only three starts ago. He has the best proximity numbers from 125-150 in this field and now that he is a top 10 putter over the last two-dozen rounds, he seems to have all the tools needed for success.
Bradley's driver ranks 31st in distance and 36th in accuracy, which translates to him gaining the 20th most strokes off the tee on these shorter courses. We have written Bradley up countless times in the past, yet danced around his two wins this season. Despite his two wins, Bradley has not guaranteed a Ryder Cup spot, which, I think, will be another motivating factor for him to perform well this week as he desperately wants to be on the team to win their first Ryder Cup on European soil in almost 3 decades.
Adam Schenk ($0.58 @ +25000 on DraftKings)
"If you have never watched the movie Bridesmaids, please, do it! It's hilarious. Almost as hilarious as Adam Schenk's ability to shimmy into that unflattering hot pink dress 5 separate occasions recently. He has two 2nd-place finishes this year, along with a 4th and two 7ths. Four of those finishes have taken place in his last seven starts, either missing the cut or finishing no worse than 7th. The guy either shuts down the dance floor at the wedding or blacks out before dinner is served - which, for an outright, is exactly what we are looking for." - Wyndham Championship.
I said on my podcast this week that if you liked somebody last week at Sedgefield Country Club, I think you should follow through with them this week, as this course requires a similar skill set that starts with accuracy off the tee and stellar wedges and mid irons. Schenk also went from 75-1 last week, to 250-1 this week, which is a long enough number to round out the card with. Scores may not get as low as we saw a week ago, but he has been sporadic with his results lately, and after two poor outings it is time to bounce back and get back in the heat of the battle at the top of the leaderboard.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($50)
Last Week's Placements: -$1.53
10 bets placed and we landed up basically where we started, losing only -$1.53, with Dylan Wu two shots out of a T40 +200 potentially getting us into the $20 profit range. All good.
- Sungjae Im $8 T20 +130: +$10.40
- Denny McCarthy $8 T20 +160: -$8
- Aaron Rai $8 T20 +200: -$8
- Adam Scott $8 T20 +210: $16.80
- Adam Hadwin $8 T20 +250: -$8
- Brandon Wu $8 T20 +360: -$8
- Stephan Jaeger $8 T40 -110: $7.27
- Eric Cole $8 T40 +150: +$12
- Kevin Yu T40 +175 (the model loves him but he breaks it each week): -$8
- Dylan Wu $8 T40 +200: -$8
This Week's Placements
We are going full maniac mode this week as my model struggles to find value in smaller field events. We are betting on all four of our outrights to finish top-10 with two top-20 candidates at even money.
- Patrick Cantlay $10 T10 +150
- Viktor Hovland $10 T10 +190
- Keegan Bradley $5 T10 +500
- Adam Schenk $5 T10 +1000
- Rickie Fowler $10 T20 +100
- Tommy Fleetwood $10 T20 +100
Matchups ($30)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut (no cut this week). This week we are fading the Matthews!
- Rickie Fowler $16 -140 over Matthew Fitzpatrick - Fowler has just been playing exceptional golf for a while now, while Fitz has lost strokes off the tee in four consecutive tournaments.
- Sam Ryder $14 -122 over Matthew NeSmith - Ryder has found some form with his irons recently while Matthew NeSmith's putting stats look like an episode of Dexter. A red, bloody, mess.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Scottie Scheffler $5 +150 Top 5
At a venue where you can lean on ball striking to get it done, why not lean on somebody who is rivaling Tiger for one of the best tee-to-green seasons of our generation. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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