RADIO
The year is 2023, the Tournament of Champions is a few hours away, the world's very best are all mostly in the field, and all seems right with the world. Set those goals high, but attainable, and let us have ourselves a year filled with success, happiness and winners!
We ended the RSM Classic with our worst betting week to date. But, luckily we practice good bankroll management and the most we can lose in a week is our $100, which we just about did had Taylor Montgomery not snuck in yet another T20 for us. We had a good enough year to still remain profitable regardless of having an absolutely brutal end to the fall swing. Onwards and upwards!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even.
Viktor Hovland ($3.73 @ +2200 BetRivers)
Viktor Hovland is going to find his way onto our card because he has distance, impeccable accuracy with his irons and is one of the better putters in the field. In fact, Hovland boasts the second-best proximity numbers from 125-225 yards, which is a pretty big bucket, but this course sees a lot of shots coming from a multitude of distances.
Hovland is one of the leading birdie makers in the field (5th) and has plenty of length to take advantage of the long par 5s. Typically Hovland struggles around the green, which is not that big of a deal at this course, but it is good to know that his touch around the greens is trending in the right direction recently.
The formula for Viktor is simple. Hit booming drives, stick the iron stiff and make the putts. He does all of these really well and will be teeing it up at another tropical location outside of the continental united states, where he has won a handful of tournaments over the last few years. In a few days, Viktor will be the victor of the Tournament of Champions!
Sam Burns ($4.39 @ +2800 BetRivers)
Sam Burns has the exact same skill set as Viktor and has won three times in the last 15 months. Burns leads the field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda greens over the last 50 rounds. When he gets confident on the greens, he truly is a joy to watch. Burns is also the second best putter in the field on all surfaces, so he is not entirely reliant on Bermuda grass to get things done.
Burns can find his driver misbehaving every now and then, which should be less of an issue here, as these fairways are massive. He has distance most of the field desires and should find himself in wedge range quite often, which is his strength on approach. It seems like he has all the opportunity in the world to show off the best aspects of his game and go low enough to stay ahead of the pack at a venue that could see scores approach -30.
Max Homa ($4.39 @ +3300 FanDuel)
This is a crazy number on a golfer who has been frequenting the winner's circle a lot more than most of the golfers in the field, who have much shorter numbers than 33-1. Max has picked up sustainable length off the tee and when his putter heats up, he can get cooking. His 8th ranked putting on all surfaces is slightly better than 12th on Bermuda greens, but we can expect the putter to do work regardless.
A very underrated aspect of his game is his incredible ability to score well on Par 5s, ranking 6th in that department in a field that is saturated with the worlds very best. If Max can take advantage of the easy par 5s, the rest of his game is more than capable of rolling in the birdie putts needed to stick with the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau. The way Max has been trending, it will not be surprising to include his name along with these studs, as guys to beat.
Mackenzie Hughes ($1.23 @ +10000)
Mackenzie Hughes won an event in his last four starts and did so in the midst of a swing that was adapting to his recent speed training. His driver is still a little inaccurate but is now going eight yards further than usual, which is an element of his ball striking that we can now feel confident about at this venue.
Hughes is the third best putter in the field and slides three spots to sixth when ranking his flatstick on Bermuda surfaces over the last 50 rounds. The reason he is 100-1 is due to his inconsistent iron play, which is not nearly on par with the likes of Morikawa, Hovland, and Thomas, but what he lacks in accuracy on approach, he can very easily make up with a putter that has been his saving grace on multiple occasions. Roll em in and give us a 100-1 winner to start off the year, Mackenzie!
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings
Last event we were lambasted by the wind going 1 for 8 on placements for our worst week since the article started (-$57.30). The worst part was having to wait a month or so to try get back on the board. Horrible timing to have our worst ever week of betting.
- Taylor Montgomery (T20: $9 @ +170 on FanDuel): W
- Tom Hoge (T20: $9 @ +155 on FanDuel): L
- Brendon Todd (T20: $9 @ +275 on DraftKings): L
- Matt Kuchar (T20: $9 @ +220 on DraftKings): L
- Adam Long (T20: $9 @ +490 on FanDuel): L
- John Huh (T40: $9 @ +290 on FanDuel): L
- Justin Lower (T40: $9 @ +200 on FanDuel): L
- Ryan Armour (T40: $9 @ +230 on FanDuel): L
This week we are taking a break from placings as the model struggles to find value in these limited size fields.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
(T1o: Sungjae Im $5 @ +130 on DraftKings)
Sungjae has been playing sensational golf to round out the fall swing, with a few shaky Sunday's on the greens keeping him out of the winners circle. At a golf course he has played well at many times before, with great baseline and recent form, Sungjae gets a plus money price tag to finish top 10 in a 39-man field.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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