Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 7

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Hits and misses were the theme of Week 6, with Derrick Henry and Ronald Jones II coming through huge for us at the RB position, while players like DeVante Parker and Jonnu Smith hurt us due to injuries. Week 7 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 7. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 7 Picks

Josh Allen - BUF @ NYJ ($7,700)

Josh Allen's evolution was one of the hot topics over the first month of the season, but he's now logged a couple of relatively disappointing outings in his last two starts. Allen gets the mother of all bounce-back matchups against the abysmal New York Jets this week. He destroyed the Jets in Week 1, posting 33.2 DK points on 312 yards passing and 57 yards rushing that resulted in 3 TDs. There's reason to believe Allen will get back on track against a New York defense that's allowing opposing QBs to complete passes at nearly a 72% clip and is relinquishing over eight yards per attempt. Another reason to consider the Bills signal caller - especially in GPPs - is that his ownership should be noticeably depressed with all the other eye-catching QB options that are available on this slate.

Kyler Murray - SEA @ ARI ($7,100)

While Josh Allen will be contrarian, Kyler Murray will be chalk city this week. However, it's hard to argue with the play, as Murray's combination of production and matchup is hard to ignore. The second-year QB leads the position in rushing yards with 370 and has accounted for 6 TDs on the ground this season. He's also proven efficient when asked to throw the ball, posting 1,487 yards and 10 TDs. The matchup is a great one, as the Seahawks have been routinely shredded by opposing QBs. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most DK points in the NFL to the QB position and ranks 31st in the league in passing yards allowed. This game comes in with a "high and tight" O/U and point spread...and there's lots of paths that lead to this one turning into a true shootout.

Joe Burrow - CLE @ CIN ($5,500)

Those of you looking to pay down at the QB position might want to consider Cincy rookie Joe Burrow. The LSU product has looked every bit the part of a number-one draft pick, despite, ya know...playing for the Bengals. Burrow has thrown for 1,617 yards - the eighth-most in the NFL - and toasted the Browns for 316 yards and 3 TDs in their Week 2 matchup. Speaking of TDs, the rookie hasn't thrown for one in his last two games, so I think we can expect some positive regression in that department at some point. As for the matchup, it's an intriguing one, as the Browns rank bottom-five in the NFL in completions, passing yards, and passing TDs allowed.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Still love all of the QBs highlighted in the original writeup, but there are sooo many good options this week. Obviously, both Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes deserve serious consideration, while Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson are squaring off against each other in a game that has all the makings of a shootout. The same can be said for Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford  in their matchup. Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill faces a tough test against the Steelers, but stands out as a very intriguing contrarian option with upside.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 7 Picks

Alvin Kamara - CAR @ NO ($7,900)

Alvin Kamara in Week 7 reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry in Week 6...we have an uber-talented player in an absolute smash matchup. Yes, of course he could "fail", but why overthink it?

Kamara has posted 150.6 DK points this season - the most by a RB - and has combined for 20-or-more carries/targets in every Saints game to this point. He'll square off against a Panthers Defense that's allowed the second-most DK points in the NFL to the RB position, are tied with Houston for the most TDs allowed (8) in the league, and - perhaps most importantly in Kamara's case - are relinquishing a ridiculous 85.5% catch rate to RBs out of the backfield.

Aaron Jones - GB @ HOU ($7,200) *QUESTIONABLE*

Speaking of Derrick Henry's Week 6 matchup...Aaron Jones wins the prize egg this week, as he's set to square off against a struggling Houston Texans Defense. The Texans contained Henry for a decent portion of the game last week before eventually allowing him to explode for 212 yards on the ground. It was the fourth time this season they've allowed a 100-plus yard rusher. Houston ranks dead last in the NFL in DK points, rushing yards, and rushing TDs allowed to the RB position. It's an appetizing matchup for Jones, a player with a lower floor than most "elite" RBs, but a guy that carries as much upside as anyone in the league, as evidenced by his 48.6 DK point performance against the Lions in Week 2.

Jerick McKinnon - SF @ NE ($5,800)

The revolving door at the RB position continues for the San Francisco 49ers, as Raheem Mostert went down yet again last week. With Tevin Coleman on IR, Jerick McKinnon will once again be asked to step into the lead role for this Niners backfield. He performed well in two games as the top option in San Fran, rushing for 92 yards and 2 TDs on 28 carries, and catching 10 of 12 targets for 82 yards, in Weeks 3 and 4. There are a couple of reasons to be skittish here...Niners rookie JaMychal Hasty received nine carries when Mostert left last week and the matchup against the New England Patriots is a tough one. Taking those drawbacks into account, McKinnon is an explosive, dual-threat back with a sub-$6k price tag. He's worth a long look.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Tons of injury news this week, but perhaps the biggest surprise is Aaron Jones' suddenly-questionable status after a calf issue popped up in practice Friday. At the time of this writing we don't have a clear outlook as to whether Jones will be able to suit up, but I will try to update as soon as news is available. Obviously, the matchup is a "smash" one, so I'll still ride with Jones if he plays (maybe at reduced ownership?) and would look at Jamaal Williams and his $4k salary if Jones can't go. Williams has nowhere near the explosiveness of Jones, but would be a very strong value play in this situation against the league's worst run defense. Speaking of value plays, Cincy's Giovanni Bernard is slated to step in for the injured Joe Mixon this week. His past numbers without Mixon in the lineup are strong and he figures to be one of the most popular options on the slate. The RB on the other side of that matchup, Kareem Hunt, is also projected to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, but he's hard to argue with his usage and upside. With Saints receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both ruled out, we have to love Alvin Kamara even more. Yes his matchup is very tough, but are we really going to ignore Derrick Henry this week? He'll most likely come in under 10% owned, which makes him one of my favorite contrarian GPP plays on the slate. The TB vs LV game has been moved to the main slate, which gives us the opportunity to go back to a player highlighted in this article last week, Ronald Jones II, a back that it feels as though everyone is overlooking, despite a great matchup against the Raiders.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 7 Picks

DeAndre Hopkins - SEA @ ARI ($8,200) *QUESTIONABLE*

I'm normally a fan of paying down at WR, but as with Alvin Kamara this week, some spots are just too good to ignore. Arizona's DeAndre Hopkins is such an example. Hopkins tops the WR salary scale, but draws what can only be described as a smash matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this week. Seattle's secondary is a shell of its former self. The team that was once upon a time a matchup that we went out of our way to avoid with WRs is now one that we want to target. The Seahawks rank dead last in the NFL in DK points, receiving yards, and catches allowed to the WR position. It will be tough for them to slow down Nuk, a player that has been outstanding in his new Arizona home, and has went for over 130 receiving yards in three of the Cards six contests on an average of 12.2 targets per game. Seattle is a true funnel defense that's allowing just 3.73 yards per carry on the ground, so we can expect the Arizona passing attack to be deployed often in this matchup.

Terry McLaurin - DAL @ WAS ($5,800)

I honestly feel as though I could include Terry McLaurin in this column every week. He remains frozen in this mid-to-high-$5k price range, despite being one of the most explosive receivers in the game. McLaurin's production is undoubtedly hurt by both Washington's QB situation and overall offense, though his volume has stayed consistent despite the revolving door at QB. McLaurin has been targeted 58 times this season (11.6 targets per game), which is good for the fifth-most targets in the league. He and the WFT offense draw a "circle it on your calendar" matchup against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7. The 'Boys struggles on defense this season have been well documented, but just to reinforce how bad it is, this Dallas unit ranks in the bottom-five in the NFL in DK points, receiving yards, TDs, and yards per target allowed to the WR position. We're targeting upside at WR and "The Jet" has both the talent and usage needed to crush his salary in this matchup.

Mike Williams - JAX @ LAC ($4,700)

This year has been the weirdest one that many of us have ever seen, so in true 2020 fashion, we're talking about the LA Chargers passing attack. A combination of injuries to Tyrod Taylor, Austin Ekeler, and a large portion of the LA defense has forced rookie Justin Herbert into action earlier than expected. The results have been surprisingly-good, at least from a fantasy perspective. Mike Williams has a pretty non-existent fantasy floor, but I love his upside in GPP formats. Williams had a nice game LA's last time out, racking up 109 yards and 2 TDs on five catches in an overtime loss to New Orleans. Keenan Allen left that game early, so Williams did see an uptick in usage, but the upside is there even if Allen returns this week. His juicy aDOT of 18.2 is one of the highest in the league and he's accounted for 27.7% of the Chargers air yards this season. He'll face a Jags secondary that's allowing nine yards per catch to opposing WRs. This definitely isn't a "safe" play, but is one that could pay big dividends in large-field tournaments.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have both been ruled OUT for the Saints, which brings Tre'Quan Smith, Deonte Harris, and Marquez Callaway into value-play consideration. Davante Adams, Will Fuller, and Brandin Cooks are in a tremendous spot against each other, as are Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Kenny Golladay. Stefon Diggs jumps to the top of the board for me with John Brown officially ruled OUT and Brown's replacement, Gabriel Davis, is a very intriguing discount pivot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are strong plays in what should be a juicy game environment. Carolina's receiving duo of Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore are interesting stacking partners with Alvin Kamara. I keep saying every week that Cincy's Tee Higgins is underpriced for his role and that's once again the case in Week 7. Pittsburgh's Diontae Johnson has already burned me twice this season, but he's set to return to the lineup at a significant price decrease.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 7 Picks

Travis Kelce - KC @ DEN ($6,300)

If you've played NFL DFS regularly this season, chances are you're pretty frustrated with the TE position. I know I certainly am, as the position has consistently been a weak spot in my lineups. Hopefully, we can change that this week, as we finally get Travis Kelce back on the main slate. The KC tight end has been the most consistent producer at the position this season, churning out an average of 19.3 DK points per game. That consistency can be attributed to his steady role in this high-powered Chiefs offense. Kelce leads the NFL in TE targets (53), receptions (37), yards (470), and TDs (5). The matchup against Denver isn't a standout one, but the Broncos have allowed 73% catch rate to opposing TEs this season. Kelce's talent and usage in this offense make him virtually matchup proof and a solid bet to end any drought you might be experiencing at the TE position.

Austin Hooper - CLE @ CIN ($4,000)

Remember Austin Hooper? You know, the guy that signed the highest TE deal in history over the offseason. Nobody would blame you if you forgot about Hooper, as he was basically non-existent in this Browns offense for the first month of the season. However, Cleveland must have realized how much they're paying the guy, because he's actually getting some looks as of late. Hooper has been targeted 23 times over Cleveland's last three games, snagging 15 catches for 143 yards and a TD. This production is what fantasy forecasters had in mind for him this year and he has a great chance to keep it going this week against the Bengals, a team that ranks 30th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to the TE position.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Austin Hooper has been ruled OUT this week, with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant expected to split time in his stead. Jonnu Smith is set to return for the Titans, though the matchup is ugly. Denver's Noah Fant is also coming back from injury and has been targeted 27 times over the four games he's played this season. Hunter Henry stands out at $4.5k in a matchup against Jacksonville, as does Logan Thomas at $3.5k against Dallas.

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