RADIO
It's finally here, the week we have all been waiting for! It's almost time for Week One of 2022 NFL season and I can't wait for these games to start this Sunday so I can stop tinkering with my DFS lineups (or just making more and more lineups every day until Sunday).
This article is usually written by good friend Joe Nicely, our resident RotoBaller PGA expert and NFL GPP player extraordinaire. But I'm covering for him this week and I'll do my best to bring you the same level of analysis that he does week in and week out. I've often referred to Joe's articles as some of the best free DFS advice on the internet, and I mean that. He's a great analyst and a sharp dude. And I'm already feeling the pressure here to make some not just good, but great recommendations for your DraftKings DFS lineup.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, especially with the extra soft pricing on DK for Week 1. Also be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, and as Joe would say - let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 1 DFS Picks
Jalen Hurts - PHI @ DET ($6,800)
I promise you that I'm not just buying into all the Hurts hype this offseason. I actually didn't want to be this all-in on Hurts after watching him struggle with consistency last season. But then the Eagles went out and got him a legit #1 wide receiver and I watched just a few drives of Hurts this preseason before finally planting my flag.
I'm now a Hurts guy. I think he's going to have a huge year and I don't think he even has to play out of his mind to do it. He simply has to play marginally better than he did last year and he (and the Eagles) could really make some noise.
We all know about his rushing upside. He had three games last year where he ran for two or more touchdowns and he scored 30+ DK points once without even tossing a TD. He's going to run and do his thing there, but if we think he's going to improve as a passer and that the Eagles are now going to be willing to throw the ball more, then I want to get in on Hurts now before the rest of the field does and before he's priced up like Patrick Mahomes every week.
He struggled against Detroit last year, but this matchup is still one that I want to target anyway. I think Dan Campbell is likely going to get these Lions to overachieve a bit, but their defense last year was still a sieve as they finished 29th overall in DVOA rating (27th against the pass, 31st against the run).
A lot of attention and ownership is going to go to the ARI-KC and DEN-OAK games, but the Eagles are right up there with the Colts with the third-highest Vegas implied team total. I think the Birds score a bunch of points in week one and Hurts accounts for a huge chunk of their offense. The talent and matchup here are too good to pass up, this just feels like the perfect storm for Hurts to come out and silence his critics with a 3-4 TD game on opening day.
Jameis Winston - NO @ ATL ($5,300)
Let's drop down to the cheap tier of QBs and talk a bit about my favorite value play at the position - Jameis Winston. After throwing 14 touchdowns to only three interceptions through the first eight weeks last season, Winston tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.
Usually, athletes can take a long time to recover from such an injury, and perhaps Winston might not have the same mobility that he did before the injury. But as long as he's under center in this offense and able to set up and make throws, I'm on Winston this week (and this season).
Jameis is finally going to have a full complement of weapons at his disposal as Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are both healthy and ready to roll. The Saints added veteran Jarvis Landry to play in the slot and then drafted Chris Olave out of Ohio State to be yet another complementary receiver.
This Falcons team is rebuilding and perhaps they'll be a bit better in 2022. But they were the 29th-ranked pass defense in DVOA last season and allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. I think Winston should be able to pick apart this secondary and lead the Saints to solid offensive output.
I have no idea how many touches Kamara gets compared to Ingram or which receiver gets the most targets here, rolling with Jameis as my primary Saints exposure (and stacking him with a cheap Olave or Thomas) makes the most sense to me.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 1 DFS Picks
Joe Mixon - CIN vs. PIT ($7,100)
Like most of the stud players on this slate, Mixon feels badly underpriced here and he checks all the boxes when it comes to what we are looking for when targeting bell-cow backs in DFS.
The Bengals are near-touchdown home favorites against a Steelers team that they handled twice last season. Mixon ran all over this Pittsburgh defense, going 18-90 (but no TD) in Week 3 and then erupting for 28-165 and two touchdowns (35.3 DK points) in Week 12.
He scored 18 touchdowns last season and was a much bigger part of the Bengals' Super Bowl run that people want to give him credit for. So much of the attention went to Joe Burrow and his young receivers, but Mixon and the steady Cincinnati run game were what helped set up the Bengals passing attack all season.
Listen, I am a Steelers fan, but I acknowledge that their run defense was one of their biggest weaknesses last season and they didn't do much in the offseason to address the issue. The Bengals are going to establish the run first and use it set up play-action, and I expect a fresh Mixon to be fed plenty of touches.
This game script could set up nicely for Mixon to have another big output similar to his Week 12 performance in 2021. I love him in all formats and I will happily take the big discount here off the other elite backs.
Saquon Barkley - NYG @ TEN ($6,100)
Barkley is a polarizing figure in the season-long fantasy football community, but most of the sharp football minds I work with or follow on the Twitter machine are convinced that this is the big bounce-back year for Saquon.
I really want to believe it, and I don't need too much cajoling because I am a firm believer in his talent, strength, and athleticism. I watched every game of his while he was at my alma mater PSU and the kid is something special. He's flashed that same dynamic playmaking ability in the NFL, too, but just hasn't been able to put together a full season so far.
He says he's healthy and he's looked good in camp and that's good enough for me. At only 6.1k, we are getting the lead back and possibly the leader in targets for the Giants, too, considering that their wide receiver room is pretty thin. I expect them to put the ball in Barkley's hands quite a bit, whether it's on the ground or in the air.
I don't think the Giants win this game, but with full PPR scoring, it doesn't really matter if they're even all that competitive. We saw Najee Harris post some monster games last year for the Steelers in games where they lost because Ben dumped the ball off to him 10+ times. 6k for a player of Barkley's talent coupled with his three-down role in this offense is simply too cheap! If he breaks a big run or takes a screen pass to the house, he's going to smash this pricetag and hopefully help us to break the slate!
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 1 DFS Picks
Adam Thielen - MIN vs. GB ($5,400)
I've been talking up the Vikings for the last month and now it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is. I love Minnesota in this game and am going to have some exposure to their big 4 (Cousins, Cook, Thielen, and Jefferson) across my lineups.
But let's talk about Thielen here for a minute, the guy who seems to be somewhat forgotten about as Justin Jefferson has stolen the show the last two seasons and become the top target for Captain Kirk. But did you know that Thielen actually scored as many touchdowns last season (10) as Jefferson did?
Jefferson was targeted more often in the red zone, but Thielen hauled in all eight of his targets inside the 10-yard line, which accounted for six of his 10 touchdowns. If we think that Jaire Alexander has the ability to slow down Jefferson, then it makes a ton of sense to pivot to the much cheaper Thielen who has proven to have just as much TD-upside.
When you look at the receivers around him in this price range, none of them have come close to the consistent output of Thielen (when healthy), who averaged 15.6 DK points per game and popped off for 20+ four times in the 13 games in which he played.
Chris Olave - NO @ ATL ($4,500)
I have to admit my preseason hype for Olave is influencing this pick a little. I took him to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year and I've talked him up quite a bit as being the most polished rookie receiver of this really talented crop of rookies.
So of course I am going to play him at 4500 bucks, are you kidding me? Sure, it's a risky play that could blow up in my face if the Saints decide to feed Thomas and Kamara, or get up big and run the ball 50 times. But I am banking on Olave's talent and his ability to create space against defenders. I think he ends up being open a lot and that Jameis will have no choice but to throw him the ball.
If Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are effective, they are going to draw more attention on defense. And if defenses want to cover Olave man-to-man without much safety help, he's going to win those matchups.
I like the Saints to crush Atlanta this week and therefore I am getting a bunch of exposure to their primary weapons. A Winston-Olave stack costs you only $9800 and opens up a ton of salary cap to jam in the top backs and other receivers.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 1 DFS Picks
Dallas Goedert - PHI @ DET ($4,500)
I'm very much enamored with this Eagles offense this season and definitely here in Week One against the Lions. I already gushed enough about Jalen Hurts, so now it's time to talk about his trusty TE, Dallas Goedert.
The Eagles liked Goedert enough that they traded away Philly fan favorite Zach Ertz to the Cardinals last year midseason. After Ertz left, we saw Goedert post some solid scores and command a much bigger share of the teams' targets.
He had one of the best yards-per-target averages in the NFL last season, let alone among tight ends. He's not a guy who is just going to run five-yard comebacks or outs, the Eagles have used him in the vertical pass game where he can take advantage of his size against smaller corners and safeties.
I want to stack Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown, but I also want to include Goedert in those builds or just go Hurts-Goedert in some. If he can increase his role in the red zone this season (only four TD last year), he's going to post some gaudy stats. I love the price on him here and I'm willing to bet he'll be a 5-6k player here within a week or two.
Pat Freiermuth - PIT @ CIN ($4,200)
We are staying in the state of Pennsylvania here for my second TE choice. Pat Freiermuth is a really good tight end that hasn't really had much time in the spotlight. He had a great career at PSU and quickly made an impact as a rookie when Ben Roethlisberger took a shine to him and fed him a bunch of targets in the short passing game.
I know that Ben is now gone and a lot of questions remain about whether Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett will succeed him and what impact they will have on this offense. But honestly, both QBs looked good in the preseason and showed a solid rapport with Patty F (let's make that his nickname) as he caught five balls for 80 yards and a score.
Whether it's the rookie Pickett or Trubisky under center, I think both QBs will want to lean on their sure-handed TE, especially in a game here where we expect the Steelers to have to throw the ball a lot. Patty F had a touchdown in both games against the Bengals last season and their defense allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the TE position.
