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Are you one of many fantasy baseball managers who prefer to draft as late as possible ahead of the MLB season? Good, we have you covered with three fantasy baseball sleepers or bust picks below.
Braxton Garrett, Brandon Pfaadt, and Evan Carter are all interesting fantasy targets this year, so all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Garrett, Pfaadt, or Carter in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Braxton Garrett Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 245
Current ADP: ~pick 193
Analysis: Miami Marlins starting pitcher Braxton Garrett is coming off his best year as a pro. He finished the 2023 season with a 3.66 ERA and 156 strikeouts across a career-high 159.2 innings pitched. Garrett was solid in 31 appearances (30 starts) for the Marlins last year and had nine games with at least seven strikeouts and two earned runs or less allowed. The southpaw also gave up two walks or less in 29 of those 31 appearances, including no walks allowed in 11 contests. The 26-year-old left-hander posted career bests in WHIP (1.146), BB/9 (1.6), and H/9 (8.7) during the 2023 season and has a career 8.9 SO/9 over his 58 Major League games pitched.
Braxton Garrett's 2 1st Inning Ks. pic.twitter.com/xJyZ0EbxIP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 3, 2023
Garrett was a surprise waiver wire pickup last year and could provide some late-round value in 2024 drafts this season. However, his ADP is steep compared to his RotoBaller rank, so it might be tough to acquire him at a reasonable cost. Garrett is not expected to be ready for Opening Day due to a shoulder injury, but he should make his debut in April.
Brandon Pfaadt Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 232
Current ADP: ~pick 222
Analysis: Arizona Diamondbacks' starting pitching Brandon Pfaadt was one of the most hyped pitching prospects going into 2023, but he struggled for most of his rookie year. He had a 5.72 ERA in nineteen starts with 94 strikeouts over 96 innings pitched. However, he turned it around in the postseason, posting a 3.27 ERA and 26 Ks over 22 IP. His success down the stretch is likely attributed to his adjustments after the All-Star break. In the second half, he started pitching from the first-base side of the rubber rather than the third-base side.
He also threw more sinkers (19% of his pitches were sinkers in the playoffs). Among other things, these changes helped him increase his strikeout rate and lower his home-run rate. Going into 2024, Pfaadt looks to continue improving at the big-league level. With an ADP of around 223, he is a relatively low-risk option with plenty of upside. ATC projects Pfaadt with a 4.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 140 strikeouts over 147 innings, making him a fine value at his ADP. It's technically a slight reach, but he's drafted within his reasonable range.
Evan Carter Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 101
Current ADP: ~pick 106
Analysis: Texas Rangers top outfield prospect Evan Carter had a strong Minor League in 2023, slashing .288/.413/.450, which led him to be called up to the Majors in September, where he mashed through the playoffs. With the Rangers, Carter hit over .300 and five home runs in 23 games, which was impressive considering he hit just 13 in 108 in the minors. The Rangers' top prospect has a well-rounded skill set, but contact skills and plate discipline are his best skills. He posted a contact rate of 75 percent with an in-zone rate of 83 percent in the minors. The chase rate of 19 percent this season was also a very impressive number, which helped lead to a high OBP, which translated well to the majors.
The power is the biggest question mark in his game, with average exit velocities of 85 mph and 85.5 mph over the last two seasons. In the majors, that jumped to 89, which was encouraging, though it was a small sample. Carter has a projectable body and is still 21 years old, leaving plenty of time for him to fill out and add power. He gets to more in-game power than the exit velocities suggest due to hitting the ball at ideal launch angles. Carter will spend most of the 2024 season as a 21-year-old with a well-rounded skillset.
Evan Carter’s first AB he collects his first MLB hit! pic.twitter.com/s97rhBGyho
— Texas Rangers Insider (@RangersInsiders) September 9, 2023
Carter is a safer profile with a high floor who can provide a solid batting average, high stolen base totals, and sneaky power as well. FGDC projects Carter to slash .250/.348/.409 with 17 home runs and a .331 wOBA across 609 plate appearances in 2024.
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