Bounce Back Wide Receiver Candidates For 2023 Fantasy Football - Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, Deebo Samuel, more

Fantasy managers can sometimes be too quick to jump the gun on a player’s career or skill set. One bad year can turn into a belief that said player maybe isn’t as good as anymore or has been replaced or is on the downward slope of their career. However, sometimes, it was just a bad year. That can happen sometimes, you know.

Randy Moss once had 96 targets, 42 receptions, 553 yards, and three touchdowns in 13 games with the Raiders in his age-29 season. This was after two previous seasons where he had just 109 receptions and 1,772 yards in 29 games. That happens to a player nowadays with our obsession with age and I promise you, people will be calling him washed or at the very least, that this is the beginning of the end. After all, over three seasons he played in 42 out of 48 possible games and averaged just 775 yards a year. But sometimes... sometimes bad years happen, and context matters.

We’d never think that of Moss nowadays because we have the beauty of hindsight, a tool we don’t have for the 2023 season. Still, I’ll be identifying five receivers in line for a big bounce-back season after simply having a bad year. If you’re interested in reading other entries of this series, check out bounce back quarterback candidates and bounce back running back candidates. Don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" for a 10% discount on any premium purchase. 

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Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

There are a lot of people crowning Brandon Aiyuk as the new top receiver for the 49ers and that he’s the receiver to target, but I don’t see it. When Samuel was healthy, he was still, far and away the best option for this offense. Samuel suffered a knee injury in Week 14, which caused him to miss 60% of the game and then miss the following three weeks. He returned in Week 18, the final game of the season, and was on a snap count. This was largely used as a dress rehearsal for the playoffs. However, when we look at what he did from Weeks 1-13 and their first two playoff games when they had an actual quarterback, Samuel was once again, fantastic.

Looking at the table above, in 13 games he was on pace for 1,300 yards in what many described as a “down” year. He was also on pace for 78 receptions and 58 rushes. The most important stat, however, is the 12.2 half-PPR PPG he averaged, which would have been the WR19. As nice as that sounds, it could’ve been and should’ve been even better. That’s because we would have expected him to score more than just three receiving touchdowns with 94 targets. Aiyuk and Kittle both made the list for touchdown regression in 2023 for receivers and tight ends. In his first two seasons, Samuel scored every 16 touches. If we include his magical third season, he scored every 11.8 touches. In 2022, however, he scored every 19.6 touches. Unlike Kittle and Aiyuk who are likely to score fewer times, Samuel should be expected to score more.

Targets per route run in the 5 games that Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey + Deebo Samuel played together (@FantasyPtsData):

1. Samuel (0.26)
2. CMC (0.23)
3. Brandon Aiyuk (0.19)
4. George Kittle (0.19)

Deebo was also WR1 first read target share (25%), followed by Aiyuk (20%)

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 20, 2023

Hopefully, at this point, you should be buying into Samuel’s bounce-back campaign this season, but it gets even better. With Brock Purdy expected to be under center this season, Samuel should receive plenty of attention. From the tweet above, Samuel was Purdy’s clear top target after the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey.

I know we all WANT the Brandon Aiyuk thing to happen in 2023 because he is an absolute BEAST.

The challenge:

1) The NFL plays zone on 70% of plays
2) Deebo Samuel is the zone HOG

Rarely do we see splits this wild, but the 49ers clearly prioritize Deebo vs. zone coverage. pic.twitter.com/Psd36Gh5QH

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) July 21, 2023

Samuel is unlikely to replicate what he did in 2021, but his upside is that of a top-12 receiver. Looking at what he did in his healthy games last year, fantasy managers definitely should not be sleeping on Deebo this year.

Prediction: Deebo Samuel bounces back with 119 targets, 83 receptions, 954 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. He also has 54 carries for 324 yards, and 3 touchdowns. 

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Metcalf is another receiver absolutely ready to explode in 2023. While some fantasy managers may be turned off by him due to his 10.9 half-PPR PPG average last season, which ranked just WR25, coupled with the fact that the team selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round one, you should be pouncing on Metcalf. He’s a strong progression candidate in yards and specifically, touchdowns.

D.K. Metcalf's ranks among WRs last year ...

Red-zone targets: 3rd
Targets inside the 10: 6th
End-zone targets: 1st
Expected TDs: 3rd

Actual TDs: 19th

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 13, 2023

As a rookie, Metcalf scored seven touchdowns on 100 targets, a 7% touchdown rate. In his sophomore season, he scored 10 touchdowns on 129 targets, a 7.75% touchdown rate. In his third year, he scored 12 touchdowns on 129 targets, a 9.3% touchdown rate. In 2022, he scored just six touchdowns on 141 targets, a 4.25% touchdown rate. From 2019 to 2021, his first three years in the league, his touchdown rate was 8.1%. If he had scored on 8.1% of his targets last year, he would’ve had 11 touchdowns instead of the six he ended up with.

Players that have seen 14+ end zone targets...

Two years in a row:
🔸Justin Jefferson
🔸Stefon Diggs
🔸Ja'Marr Chase
🔸DK Metcalf

Three years in a row:
🔸DK Metcalf

Four years in a row:
🔸DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf just turned 25 in December.

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) February 25, 2023

He’s not just due for some progression in touchdowns, but also his yardage. From 2019 to 2021, he averaged 14.67 yards per reception. In 2022, that number fell to 11.6. While some of that can be attributed to a lower average depth of target, another bit of it is based on a down year in terms of yards after the catch per reception. In his first three years, he averaged 4.46 YAC/reception. That number fell to just 2.4 in 2022. He broke a tackle every 10.8 receptions in his first three years. In 2022, he broke one tackle. Out of 90 receptions. Something tells me we shouldn’t expect that again.

The Seattle offense is loaded with weapons and Metcalf is the best one they have. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if or rather when, he gets back to scoring 10+ touchdowns in a resurgent 2023 season.

Prediction: DK Metcalf bounces back with 139 targets, 86 receptions, 1,125 yards, and 10 touchdowns. 

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Johnson had a season to forget last year. It is not a stretch to say that his 2022 season was the biggest anomaly in NFL History. Guys do not have 147 targets (seventh-most in the NFL) and 16 red zone targets (18th-most) and not score a touchdown. This does not happen.

The most targets by a player without scoring a touchdown was 109 back in 1996 by Michael Timpson, which ranked 33rd-most that year. Johnson had 38 more than that. Timpson played in 15 games that year, so 7.2 targets per game. Timpson would’ve needed to play 21 more quarters of football before he reached Johnson’s 2022 target total. Timpson also had just nine red zone targets that year, 47th-most. Timpson would’ve needed to play 12 (!!!) more games to reach Johnson’s 16 red zone targets. It’s amazing how a once-in-a-half-century type of season can have such a negative effect, but that’s what is happening and it can make us forget just how good Johnson has been. He’s been in the league for four years and below is a breakdown of how his stats stack up between 2019, his rookie season to 2021.

As you can see from the table above, Johnson has been an incredibly efficient and very valuable receiver for the past two seasons, ever since his rookie year. Even his rookie season, looking at his target share, yards per route run, and targets per route run created a lot of optimism moving forward.

It was just in 2021, not that long ago, when Johnson finished as a top-12 receiver. Actually, when you look at these stats, you’ll notice that Johnson got better in every single statistic except yards per route run every single season from 2019 to 2021. Prior to last year, if you wanted to make the argument that he was a top-20 receiver, maybe even a top-15 receiver even in the league, you had the numbers to back up your claim. There’s no denying just how good Johnson was in 2020 and 2021. His 2022 season took quite the turn, however.

As ugly as his half-PPR PPG average was, there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. For starters, his target share, target per route run, and targets per game remain elite. With better efficiency, Johnson should bounce right back. In 2022, he dealt with Mitchell Trubisky before the team made the switch to rookie, Kenny Pickett. Now with a full season under his belt and with a full offseason program as the team’s starter, Pickett should be much better in 2023.

This is me remaining liquid and adjusting to new info…

And with that I might have to change my tune on KENNY PICKETT 🧐👀

I was NOT expecting to find this when prepping for our latest pod ep BUT

Weeks 12-18 Pickett was:
(Min 50 dropbacks)

1st in PFF passing grade

4th in Big… pic.twitter.com/jsRP0gMZzW

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 4, 2023

If Pickett takes a step forward, Johnson should also rebound in 2023 in a big way. He’s one of the better values right now. We all remember when Miles Sanders scored zero touchdowns in 2021. He scored 11 this past year. He scored eight in 2021 and seven in 2020.

Prediction: Diontae Johnson bounces back with 139 targets, 91 receptions, 1,022 yards, and six touchdowns. 

Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys

Brandin Cooks is going to be 30 this year, which among fantasy football managers, is a scary age for any non-quarterback player. The reality is, that wide receivers aren’t nearly as prone to that somewhat arbitrary age rule as say running backs are. This isn’t a new phenomenon as it relates to fantasy football, but we often have very short-term memory. We have a “what have you done for me lately” mindset and we can sometimes write off some really good football players too early. I believe that’s what is happening with Cooks.

Even last year, while he missed four games, he was on pace for 915 yards and this is despite quarterback play that ranked 31st out of 33 qualifying passers. He was also unhappy with the team after not having been traded last offseason and then not again following the trade deadline. Still, he averaged 7.15 targets per game and was on pace for 122. He was also on pace for 75 catches. That’s not really as bad as it seems considering the quarterback play. Let’s take a trip down memory lane to see what Cooks has provided over the years.

As you can see from the table above, we’re looking at an awfully good receiver. There are two seasons that stick out as obvious outliers and those are 2019 and 2022. If you’ll recall, the 2019 season was the year Cooks struggled with multiple concussions. He missed two games and left early in several more. He ended up playing fewer than 60% of the 14 games he appeared in and was mostly a lost season due to injuries. The 2022 season stands out as one of the worst of his career, but not surprisingly, that also coincides with, by far, the worst quarterback play he’s ever received – the only season where his team’s quarterbacks finished with a quarterback rating below 85 and it was well below that.

Eliminating those two seasons, if we take his worst per-game averages across the board in terms of targets, receptions, and yards, he’d still finish with 121 targets, 70 receptions, and 1,102 yards. Of those six remaining seasons, his worst half-PPR PPG average was 11.7. It really is amazing just how consistently good he’s been despite having to deal with new quarterbacks and new offenses so regularly.

He finished as the WR20 in 2015 in regard to half-PPR PPG average, WR10 (2016), WR14 (2017), WR20 (2018), WR18 (2020), and WR22 (2021). Considering how many teams and different quarterbacks he’s had to catch passes from, he’s been an incredibly consistent fantasy producer. Truly, the consistency is remarkable.

His new home in Dallas could not be any more different than where he was in Houston. The offensive output and passing game efficiency are on two sides of the extreme and that is going to pay major dividends to Cooks in 2023. Let me show you just how different these two teams were in the past two seasons.

Just take a gander at the difference in, well… just about everything. Last year was a poor season for Dak Prescott, but don’t forget what that man can do. Look at those 2021 numbers. Those are absolutely sensational and he did similar stuff in 2019 and 2020. Do not forget.

He was still effective last season, evidenced by his on-pace stats of 122 targets, 75 receptions, 914 yards, and four touchdowns. That was despite Mills’ incompetence. Now teamed up with Prescott and no longer having to serve as the team’s top receiver, Cooks is in a great spot for a strong season.

Prediction: Brandin Cooks bounces back with 116 targets, 75 receptions, 1,025 yards, and five touchdowns. 

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

The entire Denver offense was put through the wringer last season. Nothing was easy. Quarterback Russell Wilson was playing on a new team, in a new city, with a new coach for the first time in his NFL career. That new coach, Nathaniel Hackett, did so poorly that he was canned after one season. There have been just 23 head coaches fired after one season in the history of the NFL. You’ve got to be very, very bad and the Denver front office believed Hackett was that bad.

That’d be enough to doom most teams, but there’s more. Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. Wilson missed one game and played through a partly torn hamstring. Starting running back Javonte Williams played just 12% of the snaps. Pass-catchers, Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich played just 77%, 62%, 0%, and 43% of the snaps, respectively. The offensive line was also hit hard. Starting tackles Garrett Boles and Billy Turner played just 28% and 42% of the snaps. Interior starters, Quinn Meinerz, Lloyd Cushenberry III, and Dalton Risner played 66%, 44%, and 85% of the snaps, respectively.

That is a whole heck of a lot to overcome when your head coach and quarterback are in their first year working together. It led to the Broncos finishing 32nd in points and 21st in yards. Despite all of that, Sutton was more productive than a lot of fantasy managers would like to admit.

Over 17 games, Sutton was on pace for 131 targets, 78 receptions, 1,006 yards, and two touchdowns. Considering everything this team went through, that’s pretty good. His 9.1 half-PPR PPG would’ve ranked as the WR39, but he’s routinely drafted much closer to WR50. This is despite scoring just two touchdowns. He was identified as one receiver who should be expected to experience touchdown progression in 2023 in a recent series of articles here at RotoBaller. It should be noted, that Metcalf and Johnson also are included.

With the expected improvement from Wilson, the positive effect from the hire of Sean Payton, and some better touchdown luck, Sutton could very well be one of the better values in fantasy football drafts. He’s in a great position for a strong bounce-back season.

Prediction: Courtland Sutton bounces back with 114 targets, 70 receptions, 950 yards, and six touchdowns.

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