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Rob identifies four fantasy football running back draft values who could bounce back in 2023. Target these lower-cost RBs who had disappointing seasons.
When it comes to sports, especially football and particularly the running back position, an athlete's success is often dependent on their teammates. A good offensive line is a running back's best friend. Although truly elite tailbacks can still be productive with below-average line play, most cannot. Fantasy analysts often interpret down years for running backs as the beginning of the end of the rusher's career. But sometimes, a down year is just that -- a bad year.
Athletes, like the rest of us, are prone to good and bad days. These things happen from time to time. Often, there's a good bit of context that is not being considered when looking at a player's final stat line or their fantasy football finish. Did they have any nagging injuries? How healthy were they? What about their offensive line and the rest of their supporting cast? There are a number of things outside of the player's control that can affect their performance.
In this article, we will identify four running backs who experienced down seasons in 2022 and are likely to bounce back in 2023 with quality seasons. Due to their poor 2022, these players can provide fantasy managers with a nice bit of value in drafts since their prices have decreased. This is the second entry in this series. The first entry identified which quarterbacks are primed for a bounce-back year. You can find that article here. Don't forget to use the promo code BOOM for a discount on any fantasy football Premium purchase.
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David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery is often viewed as a middling talent who has largely been successful in fantasy due to volume and not much else. However, that isn't entirely fair. While no one is going to mistake Montgomery for an elite player, he's never been provided much help after spending his first four seasons in Chicago.
Following his 2019 rookie season, PFF ranked Chicago's offensive line 25th. The Bears' offensive line finished 20th in 2020 and 22nd in 2021, according to PFF. In his most recent season, Chicago's offensive line played the best they have in any of Montgomery's previous seasons. They finished ranked 14th, according to PFF. But that still doesn't compare to the offensive line play Montgomery will receive in Detroit. The Lions ranked eighth last season, and there are plenty of reasons to believe they'll be even better this season.
It's not just the offensive line play, however. Montgomery has also been tasked with playing on some of the worst offenses in the NFL. Since his rookie season, Chicago has scored the sixth-fewest points in the NFL. During his rookie season, Chicago finished 29th in both points scored and yards gained.
In the following season, the team finished 22nd in points and 26th in yards. Things didn't get any better in the next two seasons. Chicago finished 27th and 24th in points and yards in 2021, respectively. The Bears then finished 23rd and 28th in these two respective categories this past season. Detroit, on the other hand, finished fifth in points and fourth in yards.
Despite getting very little help from his offensive line, Montgomery has gained over 1,050 scrimmage yards in all four seasons he's spent in the Windy City. He's averaged 1,212 scrimmage yards, 268 touches, and 7.5 touchdowns per season. Since his rookie season, he's finished as the RB33, RB9, RB14, and RB28 in half-PPR PPG.
Yahoo! fantasy managers are currently drafting Montgomery as the RB27, which is about where he finished last season. In the previous two years, Montgomery had solidly outplayed that ranking. Amazingly, the move to greener pastures is having no effect on his current ranking.
Last season, Montgomery finished 10th among running backs with an average of two yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Attempt). He also broke a tackle on 10.1 attempts, which was the fifth-best rate in the NFL. The season prior, he finished 24th with a 1.9 YAC/Attempt and 21st with a broken tackle every 14.1 attempts.
In 2020, he averaged 2.4 YAC/Attempt, which ranked 13th. He also recorded a broken tackle every 8.5 attempts, which was the second-best rate in the NFL. He's a strong runner and he could very well be on the verge of a career season behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines.
A lot of goal-to-go carries will likely go to Montgomery since he is 224 pounds and fellow tailback Jahmyr Gibbs is only 199. This is a very similar setup to the Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift combination the Lions had last season. Detroit finished with the 13th-most carries last season and profiles as a team who wants to run the football.
Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if, or rather when, Montgomery finishes as a top-20 running back this season. He's an easy bet for a big bounce-back season and is one of the better fantasy values right now.
Prediction:
David Montgomery bounces back with 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10+ touchdowns en route to a top-24 finish.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
With Alvin Kamara likely facing a suspension, fantasy managers have largely been avoiding him in drafts. With the likelihood of being suspended between three to six games, as well as his declining efficiency, Kamara has become a player many are plenty anxious about.
There's no denying there is some risk associated with drafting him. However, a lot of that risk is represented in his current ninth-round ADP. There is no denying Kamara has struggled running the football over the past two seasons, but there is some context that could help us understand why.
One can argue that age is a factor. Kamara will be 28 at the end of July. However, he was just 26 during his first down year in 2021, and 26 is closer to a running back’s prime than his cliff. That’s especially true for one of elite status like Kamara. Apart from the simple age narrative, let's explore another reason why Kamara struggled.
From 2019 to 2020, Kamara averaged 12.3 carries per game. Prior to 2021, he never had a season with more than 195 carries. All that changed in 2021. His carries per game average ballooned to 18.5 and he finished with 240. It’s no mystery that increased volume can negatively affect a player’s efficiency. Kamara was also tasked with a lot more running inside the tackles.
While his rush attempts per game dropped down to 14.9 this past year, he still finished with 223 carries. That was 29 higher than his previous career-high prior to the 2021 season. It should also be noted that during the 2021 season, Kamara’s attempts per broken tackle rate were still elite. In 2022, his YAC/Attempt was top-12.
The 2022 campaign was also Kamara's first season post-Sean Payton. It should be expected that coaching transitions could negatively affect offenses at first. The Saints also suffered several injuries along their offensive line.
Their first-round rookie left tackle, Trevor Penning, played fewer than 12% of the snaps. The team’s starting guards played just 55% and 83% of the snaps, respectively. Their starting center played just 76% of the snaps. Offensive line injuries were present in 2021 when their left tackle missed nine games, and their right tackle missed seven games. Two interior offensive linemen also missed 11 and five games, respectively.
In addition to the offensive line injuries, the 2022 team’s starting quarterback Jameis Winston was injured in Week 3, and the team switched to Andy Dalton for the rest of the season. All of these injuries will make a running back’s job incredibly difficult. Did Kamara's efficiency decrease? Yes. Is there also a non-related skill issue that could help explain some of the decreases? Also, yes!
However, let’s rewind a bit. Who is drafting Kamara for his rushing anyways? Don’t get me wrong, we can’t have his rush attempts go to nothing, but that’s not going to happen. Kamara has long been one of, if not the best, pass-catching backs in the NFL. His fantasy value hasn’t come from his rushing efficiency. It comes from his role in the passing game. In that sense, Kamara is still the force he’s always been.
| Year | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Receiving Yards Per Game | Yards Per Reception | Yards Per Route Run |
| 2022 | 18.2% | 5.1 | 3.8 | 32.7 | 8.6 | 1.78 |
| 2021 | 20.2% | 5.2 | 3.6 | 33.8 | 9.3 | 1.83 |
| 2020 | 22.5% | 7.1 | 5.5 | 50.4 | 9.1 | 2.29 |
| 2019 | 20.1% | 6.9 | 5.8 | 38.1 | 6.6 | 1.89 |
His numbers in every single one of these categories listed above have ranked in the top 10 each of the past two seasons. While Kamara's rushing efficiency has gone down, his receiving value is still elite. Receptions are worth far more than rush attempts. While the decline in rushing efficiency isn’t ideal, the primary reason you’re drafting Kamara (his elite receiving role) is still very much alive.
Kamara has been one of the most valuable fantasy football running backs over the past four seasons. That includes the 2021 and 2022 seasons where we've seen his rushing efficiency decline. However, due to his elite receiving role, Kamara has still been an incredibly beneficial fantasy asset. Since being drafted, he has never finished below RB14 in half-PPR PPG. He finished as an RB1 five times.
| Year | Half-PPR PPG | RB Ranking |
| 2022 | 12.7 | RB14 |
| 2021 | 16.2 | RB5 |
| 2020 | 22.4 | RB3 |
| 2019 | 15.0 | RB11 |
With the addition of Derek Carr, Foster Moreau, and Jamaal Williams, the New Orleans offense should be a lot stronger this season. Moreau is a quality blocker at the tight end position, and the addition of Williams should allow Kamara to revert back to his role in 2019 and 2020. For the past two seasons, New Orleans has attempted to use him as an in-between-the-tackles runner, which has also hurt his efficiency. Dialing Kamara's rush attempts back should help.
Assuming the Saints' offensive line stays healthy this season and with the return of Michael Thomas, this offense should be a much more formidable unit than the one we saw last season. Put it all together, and Kamara could be in store for a nice bounce-back season.
Fantasy managers will need to pay attention to his likely suspension, but there should be optimism that we see him return to the level of play he demonstrated in 2020 before New Orleans tried to make him a true bell-cow rushing back.
Prediction:
Alvin Kamara's rushing attempts decrease to a pace of 190, but he finishes on pace for 65+ receptions and 550+ receiving yards. Kamara has averaged 52 receptions and 464 receiving yards in the past two seasons. After scoring just four touchdowns last year, Kamara will find the end zone more than five times despite his likely suspension.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
While fantasy managers may look at Joe Mixon's final stat line from 2022 and be disappointed, the reality is he is finished with 15.0 half-PPR PPG, which was good for an RB8 finish. This was kind of the way last season went for Mixon. He averaged the fewest rushing yards per game since his rookie season.
However, the flip side of that was he also averaged the most receiving yards per game of his career. There's an argument to be made that Mixon doesn't really deserve to be on this list, quite honestly. After all, he finished in the top 10 in half-PPR PPG, had the seventh-most targets among running backs, and was sixth in receiving yards.
Mixon had the best receiving season of his career, and this upcoming season could be even better. Veteran backup Samaje Perine had 51 targets, 38 receptions, 287 receiving yards, and four receiving scores. He now finds himself as a member of the Denver Broncos. Cincinnati has not done anything to replace him. Their backup running backs include Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans, and rookie Chase Brown. The depth chart behind Mixon is not imposing whatsoever, and Mixon looks locked into a very heavy workload.
Last year, he had 46 red zone touches, which was the sixth-most among running backs. Despite this, he scored just nine times. He managed his red zone workload in just 14 games. In 2021, he played in 16 games. He was handed 50 red zone touches but scored 16 times.
Looking at his utilization from last year, Mixon is one of the better bets to score more times this upcoming season. He had 29 carries inside the 10-yard line, which was the second-highest among running backs. He also had 14 carries inside the five-yard line, which was the fourth-most.
The Bengals are returning all five of their starting offensive linemen but also signed former Chiefs left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. This should be the best offensive line Mixon has run behind. When factoring in the expected strong play from Cincinnati's offensive line as well as the team ranking as a top-five offense, Mixon will have plenty of scoring opportunities and a very strong role in the receiving game.
Prediction:
Joe Mixon bounces back and finishes with 1,000+ rushing yards, 65+ receptions, 500+ receiving yards, and 10+ touchdowns.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris is one of the biggest conundrums when it comes to fantasy football. Some argue Harris is actually bad at football. It's absolutely wild. However, one thing we need to remember is that although we can look at all the advanced statistics in the world and believe that Jaylen Warren is better than Harris, the fact of the matter is none of it matters.
At the end of the day, Harris is going to play a ton. Fantasy managers sometimes get stuck on what they think they know rather than embracing what the coaching staff is telling them. Pittsburgh is telling us that Harris is their guy. We should listen.
Following his rookie season, PFF ranked the Steelers' offensive line 26th overall. That means only six teams were worse. Any running back will struggle to be efficient behind a line like that. However, Pittsburgh’s offensive line is seemingly moving in the right direction. Following the 2022 season, PFF concluded Pittsburgh’s offensive line was ranked 16th.
It gets even better. In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Steelers traded up to select Broderick Jones, a left tackle out of Georgia, at No. 14. They also signed former Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo. He earned a 75.2 overall grade from PFF and was a Pro Bowl alternate this past year. Entering the 2023 season, PFF has the Pittsburgh offensive line ranked 12th. It's not an understatement to say that this year's offensive line will be the best one Harris has run behind since entering the NFL.
The Steelers also drafted the massive six-foot-five, 265-pound tight end Darnell Washington out of Georgia. He’s not much of a pass-catcher as of yet but was almost unanimously viewed as the best blocking tight end in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’ll essentially operate as the team’s sixth offensive lineman.
With the trade of Chase Claypool, we can reasonably expect the Steelers to run more 12 personnel this year, which will get Pat Freiermuth and Washington on the field at the same time. With their improvements along the offensive line and the addition of Washington, this personnel grouping is going to bring an old-school, "punch you in the mouth" brand of football back to Pittsburgh. With the guys they got up front, this unit should be very, very effective.
During last year's preseason, Harris suffered a Lisfranc injury. This forced him to wear a steel plate in his shoe for the early portion of the season. You can read more about that here. While he was able to play through the injury, his effectiveness was clearly affected. That’s something that we could see with our eyes, but we can also see it in the numbers, too.
| Week, Year | Carries Per Game | Broken Tackle % | YAC/Carry | RYOE | Half-PPR PPG |
Half-PPR PPG Rank
|
| 1-9, 2021 | 18.8 | 8.7% | 1.7 | -0.84 | 17.4 | RB4 |
| 10-17, 2021 | 18.2 | 11.0% | 2.7 | 0.07 | 14.7 | RB10 |
| 1-9, 2022 | 13.5 | 6.5% | 1.3 | -1.15 | 9.4 | RB29 |
| 10-17, 2022 | 17.6 | 9.2% | 2.2 | -0.17 | 14.3 | RB9 |
In the table above, you’ll find some efficiency metrics and volume stats from Weeks 1-9 in 2021, Weeks 10-17 in 2021, Weeks 1-9 in 2022 (Lisfranc injury), and Weeks 10-17 in 2022. Not surprisingly, Harris recorded the lowest number of carries per game, his worst broken tackle rate, his lowest YAC per attempt, and his worst RYOE average from Weeks 1-9 of this past season when he was dealing with his Lisfranc injury.
Not only that, but the Steelers also had Mitch Trubisky start the first five games of the season. It’s not that Trubisky was worse than Kenny Pickett, but anytime an offense has a quarterback change, it’s an adjustment. Following the team’s Week 9 bye this past year, fantasy managers finally started to see Harris look like the player he was in 2021. Coincidentally, or maybe not, a healthy Harris' fantasy value skyrocketed.
He went from averaging 9.4 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 1-9, which ranked RB29, to 14.3 in Weeks 10-17, finishing as the RB9 during that span. Breaking down his career into four quarters, it’s clear that his “third quarter” (Weeks 1-9 this past season) is the clear outlier. In every other quarter, Harris finished as a top-10 RB in half-PPR PPG. Last season altogether, he finished as the RB19 and it could've been better with a little more touchdown luck.
Going into his rookie season, fantasy managers were worried about the state of Pittsburgh’s offensive line, fearing Harris would be so incredibly inefficient. He finished as the RB6 in half-PPR PPG.
Entering his second season, the concerns were about the fact that Ben Roethlisberger was no longer there to dump the ball off to him. However, once he got over an early-season injury, he closed on a hot streak and finished as the RB9 in Weeks 10-17 despite not having Big Ben.
Why was he able to overcome both concerns? Volume is king when it comes to fantasy football running backs. In back-to-back seasons, Harris got the volume. He finished with 381 touches in 2021 and 313 this past year. Don't be surprised if Harris flirts with top-12 numbers this season.
Prediction:
Najee Harris bounces back with 1,150+ rushing yards, 50 receptions, 300 receiving yards, and scores 12 touchdowns. He finishes the season with over 325+ total touches.
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