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It’s playoff time and it’s time to perfect your picks. We have one of the biggest weeks of the fantasy season coming up this weekend. Oh, and it’s also Christmas.
I hope you all have a wonderful holiday break and enjoy time with your family and loved ones. Also, I hope you all stay warm this winter. It’s been wicked cold in many places and dumping snow in others.
We have plenty of intense start-sit decisions this week, so why not start off with those most likely to Boom and Bust? My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Boom Bust article for Week 16. If articles aren't your jam, check out my shorter version of this article on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FFL.
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Laying the Boom
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
I’m guessing if you’re in the playoffs, it’s not because of Rodgers. Considering he hasn’t cracked 20 fantasy points all season, you’d be a fool to have played him every week. However, sometimes foolishness has logic, and I’m diving into the deep end and calling Rodgers my Boom for this week.
Rodgers is facing a Miami team that loves to score a lot of points and loves to concede even more to their opponents. Averaging the second-most touchdowns per game and the third-fewest interceptions per game, this is a fantastic matchup to start your playoffs. The Packers basically need to win the rest of their season to have a chance at the playoffs, and the only way to do that against a high-flying Dolphins team is to air it out. Plus, they are not playing in frigid Lambeau this week. I have him as a fringe top-12 play this week.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
I’m going to attack this pick a little differently than the rest. The matchup with Kansas City is surprisingly tougher than many expect, as the Chiefs are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position. However, I have Geno Smith as a Boom because I think this game is bigger than any statistics can describe.
Seattle is in an absolute battle for a Wild Card spot in the NFC and has recently been caught slipping with two straight losses at the hands of Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy. The Seahawks need a win here, and when you’re going into Arrowhead, that usually means you have to score. I have Smith as a top-eight option this week for the position.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
I am going to pair my Rodgers take with his top offensive weapon. I’m calling it now, Jones is a top-five RB play this week. This might come as a surprise to some since A.J. Dillon has picked up steam and has 35 touches over his last two games. However, I’m picking Jones as a Boom because of his receiving work.
The Dolphins are allowing the most receptions and most receiving touchdowns to the RB position. Considering Jones has been top-two on the team in receptions each of the last four games, he should have a huge day through the air. Plus, this matchup could easily become a shootout, making it a perfect time for Jones to have one of his iconic fantasy weeks.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
One of the grosser Boom picks I’ve had all year, but I think it’ll be worth it. Fournette has somehow managed to be a top-15 back on the season, despite being on an underperforming team and recently losing half his work to Rachaad White. However, as always, he keeps chugging along.
This week, he gets a Christmas night matchup against the Cardinals, who are friendly against running backs. Over the last eight weeks, the Cardinals are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position, and the most rushing touchdowns to the RB position per game (1.3). Considering Fournette hasn’t found the endzone since Week 10, I think this is a perfect time to call for the Pie Shop. Plus, if Trace McSorley and this Cardinals team struggle, you can expect a lot of rushing attempts for the old man. I’d play him as a fringe top-12 option, over the likes of Joe Mixon and D’Andre Swift this week.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
I get it, you see San Francisco vs. Taylor Heinicke and you immediately cringe. However, there are two things to consider here. The first, Heinicke has never met a contested throw he couldn’t attempt. Secondly, the 49ers have been surprisingly mediocre against WRs.
That’s right, arguably the best defense in the league seems to have a WR Achilles heel. This 49ers team is allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to the position and the seventh-most yards per game. What’s arguably more surprising is that they are allowing the third-most receptions per game to the position.
This could be due to their opponents playing in negative game scripts, which is expected for this Commanders team. As a result, give me the WR who hasn’t had fewer than six targets since Week 6, and is the clear number-one option on this team. I would play him over the likes of Christian Kirk and JuJu Smith-Schuster this week.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
We are finally starting to see Johnson produce for fantasy. Just in time (to knock me out of the playoffs), Johnson put together his best fantasy performance of the season last week. That performance was still relatively lackluster but was 10 receptions for 98 yards. More importantly, the second-most receptions on the team last week was George Pickens with two.
Coincidence that Pickens starts complaining about usage and then gets dominated by Diontae in targets? I think not. This week, they are going against a leaky Raiders defense that allows over 24 points per game to opponents. If the Steelers are going to find a way to 24, they will have to rely on their top WR. Plus, I think this might be a great week for Johnson to find his first touchdown on the season.
Fear the Bust
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Despite Dallas having a very successful season so far, Prescott has seemingly hidden behind the team’s success with his lackluster performances. Despite missing five straight games, he is tied for third in the league in interceptions (11). That includes seven interceptions over his last four games.
This week, he takes on a soaring divisional defense that loves to attack the ball. The Eagles are picking off opponents at the highest rate in the NFL this season and will need to show up in order to win this game. Plus, the Eagles are allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game and the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns. Prescott is still a top-15 QB this week, but I would expect a relatively down performance from the veteran signal-caller.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR)
For the second straight week, Jacobs finds himself on this list. Finishing last week as the RB20, we're diving back for more. There is no way you are sitting one of the best RBs in fantasy this season, especially in the first week of playoffs. However, you might want to take a step back before expecting a big game on Saturday Night.
Surprisingly, the Steelers have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the RB position over the last eight weeks. They are also allowing the seventh-fewest rushing TDs to the position and the second-fewest receptions over that span. In addition to their rushing defense, the overall Steelers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest points over their last three games. Although Jacobs could easily still be a top-10 option, it would be difficult if he fails to find the endzone.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
The last time I called Lamb a bust, I got an egg on my face. I am hoping this time goes differently as he is in another very difficult matchup. As I mentioned with Prescott, the Eagles' defense is no joke. Over the last eight weeks, the Eagles have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards and third-fewest targets to the position. Lamb has been incredible all season, and he's been the most reliable of Prescott’s targets, making him have a very safe floor. However, this Eagles team knows all too well what he can do, and I expect them to have a game plan that makes it difficult got Lamb to have a big week.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Since Brock Purdy has taken over, Aiyuk has lost his consistency. Over those two games, Aiyuk only has four receptions on seven targets. Plus, this week he faces a Commanders team that is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the WR position over the last eight games. The only optimism for Aiyuk’s game this weekend is that Vegas has him with the second-best odds to score a touchdown in the match (behind Christian McCaffrey). That’s a good thing since the only way I see him cracking the top 30 is with a touchdown this week.
Last Week's Booms and Busts Summary
Boom
- Matt Ryan (QB, IND): 182 yds, one TD, 10.3 fpts
- Miles Sanders (RB, PHI): 1.4 fpts
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF): two receptions, 19 yards, 2.9 fpts
- Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND): 10 receptions, 80 yds, 14 fpts
- Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN): one reception, 11 yards, 1.6 fpts
Bust
- Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX): 314 yds, four TDs, 26 fpts
- Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR): 110 yds, one fumble, 11 fpts
- Chris Olave (WR, NOS): three receptions, 53 yds, 6.8 fpts
- Evan Engram (TE, JAX): eight receptions, 62 yards, 10.2 fpts
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