Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 6 Lineups

If Week 5 in the NFL taught us anything, it's just how much of a guessing game that fantasy football will continue to be. Of course, there are those easy-to-make calls in your starting lineups. But it's the performances that come from out of nowhere that can leave fantasy managers second-guessing their decision-making. Just take a look at Davis Mills, for example. Widely regarded as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, he took a matchup (vs. New England) that appeared tough on paper and subsequently finished as the QB7 on the week. Then you also have players like Myles Gaskin, Kadarius Toney, and David Njoku that were off the radar for many managers heading into the week but finished near the top of their respective positions. The guessing game is one that many fantasy managers flirt with every week but ultimately succumb to settling on the higher drafted player to fill spots in starting lineups.

It's an ideology that I preach against week in and week out. But decisions that I typically make are not just on a whim, they are well thought out as I do a deep dive into analytics each week. Projections can only take you so far, you should be doing your research as to why those numbers came to be. The further we get along into the season, the more data is at our disposal, which is never a bad thing. Formulating your own opinion on player values each week based on the research is vital to fantasy football success. Most of your casual players can get lost in the "group think" that can occur through social media. From my experience, when you see a lot of the same people touting the perceived greatness of a player's matchup, it can throw up a red flag for me to steer another direction.

That is why I dig into the data for myself to determine players that have advantageous matchups and could be unheralded starters. Finding these players can separate you from the pack, not only in seasonal leagues but also from a DFS standpoint. But ultimately it comes down to avoiding the landmines that will make or break your weeks in fantasy. Knowing the difference between these two by truly digging into the numbers will lead you to victory more times than not. Who are those players for Week 6 action? Let's find out.

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Week 6 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Taylor Heinicke vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Since taking over for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, Heinicke has been the gunslinger that we never knew was coming. He only has one 300-yard game on the season (Week 2) but has multiple scores in three out of five games and a rushing consistency that has kept him as a viable option as a QB2. He takes risks at the position, evident by his ranking of sixth in money throws (11) but also ranking second in danger plays (18). The matchup in Week 6 is lining up to be an excellent one as he will be facing a Chiefs defense that is one of the league's worst in points allowed to the position (28.7 FPPG). With the Football Team likely to be trailing and needing to keep pace on the field, Heinicke is a sneaky option for managers looking to swing for the fences at the position this week.

Javonte Williams vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sooner or later Williams will break out in a big way as we continue to see glimpses of it on the field. He is top 24 in rushing yards (247) while ranking even higher in catch rate (91.7%) and evaded tackles (22). But the downside is that he continues to be on the wrong side of a split backfield with Melvin Gordon. The limits in opportunities have affected his efficiency to date as indicative by his low rankings in fantasy points per game (9.4) and fantasy points per opportunity (0.72). Eventually, we will see him bust out in a big way. That could be in Week 6 as he faces a Raiders defense that has to be susceptible in points allowed to the position (19.0 FPPG). If Williams sees an increase in workload in this game, he could provide a solid value as a low-end RB2.

Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Cincinnati Bengals

It has taken a bit for the rookie wideout to catch on with the Lions, but St. Brown is finally starting to get his chance to shine in this offense. After just six receptions over the first three games, he has seen an uptick in targets (16) and receptions (13) in the last two games. Now, Jared Goff has even come out to say that they need to continue to get St. Brown more involved. All good signs heading into Week 6 as he faces a Bengals defense that has been middle of the pack in points allowed to the position (23.4 FPPG). He should be viewed as a potential Flex play in a game that could become a come from behind game-script.

Dan Arnold vs. Miami Dolphins

Arnold has seemed to find a nice home very quickly with the Jaguars as he has taken hold of the starting TE job for the team that has been in dire need of one for years. He will be looking to continue the momentum from last week where he saw eight targets and finished with six receptions for 64 yards. With D.J. Chark done for the year and the team continuing to not know how to utilize Laviska Shenault, Arnold could see a steady dose of targets in this passing attack. In Week 6 he will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks inside the bottom 10 of the league in points allowed to the position (10.8 FPPG). He should be viewed as a potential starting option for managers that are currently streaming at the position.

Week 6 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Kirk Cousins @ Carolina Panthers

After the hot start to the season that saw Cousins as a top 10 QB in fantasy after three games, he has since cooled off mightily. He has been under 300-yards in each of the past two games with just two passing scores over that time. Even though he ranks eight in both attempts (191) and yards (1,396), his fantasy points per game ranks at just 14th (19.6). This week he, unfortunately, faces one of the best defenses in the league in a Panthers team that allows just 18.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Cousins should continue the subpar play and be a player that stays on fantasy benches until he turns things around.

Josh Jacobs @ Denver Broncos

Since his return from injury, Jacobs has yet to find his rhythm from a rushing standpoint. But oddly enough he has been contributing as a pass-catcher with nine receptions over two games. Even with his struggles as a runner, he has continued to be a viable RB2 from a production standpoint. He currently ranks 17th in fantasy points per game (14.8) with the help of three touchdowns in three games played. But he should find the going to be a little tough in Week 6 as he will be facing an extremely tough Broncos defense that only allows 12.6 FPPG to opposing running backs. With so many players in question heading into the weekend, fantasy managers may be forced to play Jacobs. But if you have positional flexibility, let Jacobs find the bench this week.

Allen Robinson vs. Green Bay Packers

In what should be viewed as one of the major disappointments in fantasy to begin the season, Robinson has drawn the ire of many managers. He currently ranks as WR61 on the season and has looked even worse from an analytical standpoint. He is 66th at the position in routes run (113) which has led to just 29 targets and 17 receptions. His 8.2 FPPG is just not cutting it for managers that likely drafted him as a WR1 in some drafts. This week the struggles could continue as he will be facing a Packers defense that is allowing just 19.1 FPPG to opposing wideouts. Truth be told, many managers will be holding out hope that he breaks out of the slump and keep him in the lineup. But if you have options to play ahead of Robinson this week, I would advise you to do so.

Robert Tonyan @ Chicago Bears

We all knew a regression from 2020 was due to happen for Tonyan. But to completely disappear from the Packers' offense entirely was unexpected. Through five games, he has just nine receptions, leading to a lowly 4.6 FPPG and landing him at 37th at the position. There are some silver linings to Tonyan as he ranks 12th in red-zone targets (4) and 10th in average target distance (9.1), but they are just not translating to real production. Look for that to continue in Week 6 as he faces a Bears defense that has been one of the toughest in the league in points allowed to the position (4.2 FPPG). Most fantasy managers have probably moved on from Tonyan at this point, but if you are still rostering him, he should stay on your bench for the week.

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