RADIO
Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season has come and gone. With it comes a little more clarity when it comes to player evaluation. Some players saw usage a little higher than anticipated and others were a bit of a disappointment as well. Heading into the week, the assumption was that the Rams backfield would likely be a committee approach. But after seeing Darrell Henderson handle 82% of the snaps in Week 1, it's obvious that there are calls that will not be clear. Situations like the Rams backfield are typically what you can see in Week 1. Only after the fact do we get reports to leak out that pull back the curtains to give a little more insight into the coach's decisions.
We saw surprise inactives like Jalen Tolbert, Tyler Allgeier, and Tyrion Davis-Price in Week 1 that left many fantasy managers scratching their heads. Then you come across situations like in Houston with Rex Burkhead playing 71% of the snaps to the prized rookie Dameon Pierce's 29%. With Pierce in a majority of fantasy lineups in Week 1, he could be viewed as one of the biggest letdowns to begin the year. All this comes back to information being withheld from the masses. Could it be due to the game script or was this the plan all along for these coaches? That is why Week 1 of the new NFL season is always a learning lesson when it comes to fantasy management. You must sift through the noise to get down to the truth of the matter to help you make smarter lineup decisions moving forward.
Relieving the stress of those decisions is what I aim to do each week with this piece. I look for the diamonds in the rough in an attempt to give you an advantage over your competition. Simultaneously, bracing you for what could be disappointing weeks of production from your typical starters. I dive into the numbers to point out these players that I will be wooing and those that will be getting booed.
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Week 2 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms
Derek Carr - QB, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals
Coming off of a very ho-hum performance on the road against the Chargers in Week 1, Carr will look to rebound in Week 2. Even though he was ranked as the top QB last week in air yards (369) he also ranked as QB1 in danger plays (7), which helped limit him to a QB17 finish.
One could argue that the insistence of getting the ball to Davante Adams (45% target share) made the passing attack a little too predictable last week.
Look for the going to be a little easier this week as he faces a Cardinals secondary that just allowed 34.9 FP to Patrick Mahomes. I currently have Carr inside my Top 10 for the week, and he should be considered an easy start as a QB1 in Week 2.
Devin Singletary - RB, Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans
Among the many backfield conundrums in Week 1 was the Buffalo Bills that saw three running backs getting snaps. The main outlier here was that Devin Singletary did command the majority of the snaps (59%) in a game that they played with the lead.
Although the production metrics were not much to be proud of (eight carries for 48 yards, 8.2 FP) there should be some improvement in Week 2. Singletary will be facing a Titans defense that was gashed by Saquon Barkley a week ago, surrendering 32.8 FP.
With a similar game script expected for the Bills in this game, look for the production to pick up for Singletary. This should propel him in the low-end RB2 discussion for the week for fantasy managers.
Drake London - WR, Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams
London was quite impressive in his NFL debut last week bringing in five catches on seven targets for 74 yards. His 82% route participation was tops on the team, ahead of Kyle Pitts.
While his 22% target share tied with Pitts for tops on the Falcons. Although on paper his matchup may appear to be tough, Jalen Ramsey did allow a perfect passer rating in coverage last week.
This Rams secondary allowed 52.2 FP a week ago to the Bills, which should give London managers some confidence this week. With the Falcons likely trailing in this game, look for London to garner a consistent number of targets. With those opportunities, London should be viewed as a WR3 for fantasy managers this week.
Albert Okwuegbunam - TE, Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans
Okwuegbunam started his 2022 season with a nice stat line on Monday night in Seattle (five receptions for 33 yards). Even though the yardage was nothing to write home about, he led the Broncos with a 77% route participation and 12% target share.
In the Broncos' home opener, I expect to see the offense look crisper all around. While the danger is always there that he could be left out of the passing game, I see Okwuegbunam finding the endzone in this game.
He will be facing a Texans defense that allowed 7.3 FP a week ago, but on the road, they should struggle. If you are streaming or in a pinch at the position, Okwuegbunam is worth considering as a TE1.
Week 2 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts
Tom Brady - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Coming off of his subpar effort in Week 1 against the Cowboys, Brady now goes on the road against a team that he has had his struggles with since joining the Buccaneers: the Saints.
Although, oddly, his struggles have come in home games (below 10 FP in 2 starts), while on the road he has been over 20 FP in both meetings. With his receivers in question coming into the game (Chris Godwin likely out, Mike Evans and Julio Jones missing practice), Brady could struggle in this game.
I expect to see the Buccaneers lean on the running game early, limiting the production we could see from Brady. If you have another option to pivot to in Week 2, this may be the game to bench Brady.
Ezekiel Elliott - RB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals
With the skepticism surrounding Elliott coming into the 2022 season, that is only pushed into panic mode now with the injury to Dak Prescott.
Add in the fact that he is essentially sharing the workload with Tony Pollard (58% snap share to 55%), Elliott is not receiving the number of opportunities warranted to start him with confidence.
In this first game without Dak, he will be facing a Bengals defense that allowed just 10.3 FP in Week 1 to the Steelers. With the lack of production expected, Elliott is now considered a Flex option at best.
Rashod Bateman - WR, Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Bateman had many fantasy managers worried for much of the game in Week 1 until he was able to haul in a touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson.
With the expectations high entering the year, he was only able to produce a 71% route participation last week with just an 18% target share.
The struggles could continue in Week 2 as he will likely be matched up against lockdown cornerback Xavien Howard and a Dolphins secondary that allowed just 16.5 FP to the position last week. Bateman should be viewed as a WR3 this week at best, but if you have the option to bench him, I would.
Hunter Henry - TE, New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Henry was widely viewed as a bust candidate coming into the 2022 season and he did not get off to the best start in Week 1. His 4.0 FP last week (2 receptions for 20 yards) was good enough for a TE34 finish.
Although he produced an 83% route participation, the 10% target share just simply will not get things done. In Week 2 he will be facing a Steelers that allowed 7.8 FP in Week 1, which does not lead to much excitement.
Henry should be viewed as a bench candidate until further notice or at least until we see signs of life in the Patriots' passing attack.
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