Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 11 Lineups Include Nick Chubb, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins

We had some mixed results in this space last week. Aaron Jones and Darnell Mooney were a couple of our boom picks. Both had solid games, but neither one was likely the reason you won your match. Malik Nabers was also disappointing in a great spot against the Carolina Panthers. Hopefully, the Giants move on from Daniel Jones and Nabers finds more success with Drew Lock. We did have some luck with our bust plays. Javonte Williams was highlighted as a bust last week. We mentioned the possibility that rookie Audric Estime could usurp the RB1 role, and that was exactly what happened. Drake Maye was also listed as a bust and it was recommended gamers avoid him as a streaming candidate. He finished as the QB16. We did incorrectly label Sam LaPorta as a bust. He was facing the toughest defense in the league against tight ends, so naturally, he posted a 3-66-1 line on six targets and finished as the TE4. Right process, wrong result.

There are four teams on bye this week. With the fantasy playoffs quickly approaching, it’s important we try our best to identify a few solid plays in case you’re in a pinch.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s get into our boom/bust picks for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season.

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Week 11 Fantasy Football Booms

Nick Chubb - RB, Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Since returning from a devastating knee injury, Chubb has delivered several underwhelming performances. He’s posted finishes of RB26, RB43, and RB47 and has failed to gain more than 52 rushing yards in any contest. Things could change this week as Chubb faces a New Orleans defense that ranks 31st in defensive rushing DVOA, per FTN Fantasy, and allows 141 rushing yards per game.

The Browns are only 1.5-point underdogs in this game, so this should be a competitive contest. That will mean plenty of rushing opportunities for Chubb. It’s possible he isn’t the same player following his devastating knee injury, and that’s the real cause for his poor performances. However, this game is a good litmus test, as it’s one he should have success.

Gamers can fire up Chubb as an RB2 or flex play. It’s a good bet he puts up his best game of the season, and he might even find the end zone once or twice.

Dawson Knox - TE, Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

With Dalton Kincaid potentially missing this weekend’s game, it puts Knox in a position to assume TE1 duties. It’s good timing (especially with several top tight ends on bye), as the Chiefs have had issues guarding tight ends throughout the year.

They rank 20th in DVOA against opposing tight ends, allow the second-most receiving yards per game to the position, and have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends this year, per Fantasy Football Today. This is a clear weakness of the Chiefs defense, and we would expect Buffalo to try and exploit it.

If your regular starter is on a bye or you’re streaming the position, Knox is a great option. He's got a strong matchup, and we already know he has great chemistry with Josh Allen.

.@JoshAllenQB is on a roll. A 53-yard touchdown to @dawson_knox! #BillsMafia

📺: #BUFvsKC on NBC
📱: https://t.co/6zBjGnL9LY pic.twitter.com/c1eJud1LgL

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2021

Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Herbert hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this year, as he currently ranks 21st in fantasy points per game among all quarterbacks. This was expected, though, with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman calling the shots on offense. Despite the poor results, the fifth-year signal-caller is a viable streaming candidate this week.

Los Angeles takes on the Cincinnati Bengals this week. Cincinnati’s defense is having a down year and has struggled at times. The Bengals allow the fifth-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so this could be a spot for a spike game from Herbert.

Los Angeles may rely on its ground attack in this game, so we might be depending on Herbert finding the end zone a few times. Luckily, he’s more than capable of doing so, and there is potential for this game to get squirrely if we get the right game script.

There aren’t a ton of great replacement options at quarterback this week, but Herbert might be your best bet if you need a starter.

Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings

In the three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, here are some of Ridley’s stats, courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite:

300 Receiving Yards
34% Target Share
52.9% Air Yards Share
32% Targets Per Route Run
3.03 Yards Per Route Run

Basically, all of this means Ridley is now the top dog in Tennessee’s passing attack and is being used as such. He also has a great matchup this week, as the Vikings have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers.

The key will be whether Will Levis can correctly identify when Minnesota is bringing pressure and then subsequently make the correct decisions to get Ridley the ball. Now, that is the true wild card in this game as Levis has had some awful moments this year but did play well last week. If we get more of the same from Levis this week, then we could see another strong performance from Ridley.

Week Ten

Will Levis Passing TD (7)
to Calvin Ridley (4)
pic.twitter.com/iXkCkoEcnw

— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVids) November 10, 2024

Gamers can fire him up as a WR2 or flex play.

Week 11 Fantasy Football Busts

Kirk Cousins - QB, Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos

Cousins is coming off a poor performance against the New Orleans Saints where he only finished as the QB19. Things don’t get easier this week as Atlanta travels to Denver to take on a Broncos defense that ranks eighth in defensive passing DVOA and allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

This could be a low-scoring, defensive game and might not be the best time for gamers to deploy Atlanta’s signal-caller. Look elsewhere if you need a quarterback this week.

Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Harris has enjoyed a nice stretch where he’s cracked 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games. However, this week is a horrible matchup for the fourth-year running back. Baltimore is the league’s best defense against the run. It ranks first in rushing yards allowed per game, fourth in defensive rushing DVOA, and is PFF’s highest-graded run defense.

If Pittsburgh’s offense is to have success against Baltimore’s defense, it’s more likely to come through Russell Wilson and the passing game. Baltimore’s run defense is just too good, and while Harris has had a decent year, he is still averaging just 4.1 yards per carry.

This is just a flat-out bad matchup. If you’re in a good spot at running back, Harris should be left on your bench and only started in the deepest of leagues.

Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings

Pollard struggled to get going last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. He only ran for 44 yards on nine carries and finished as the RB23. More importantly, second-year back Tyjae Spears returned in Week 10 and cut into Pollard’s workload.

Tennessee had been saying it wanted to scale back Pollard’s touches but hadn’t pulled the trigger. Perhaps it was waiting for Spears to return before doing so. Any loss of volume hurts Pollard’s outlook, and he also gets a tough draw going against a Vikings defense that ranks first in defensive rush DVOA.

Minnesota is likely to stack the back in an attempt to force Will Levis to beat it. That could leave little room on the ground for Pollard. The Vikings are also listed as 5.5-point favorites, so it is expected Tennessee will be playing from behind.

We have a bad matchup combined with newfound questions regarding Pollard’s workload, along with a potential negative game script. That's not the most ideal scenario for a boom game from Pollard. If you have other options, consider leaving the Titans back on your bench this week.

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