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Dom Petrillo analyzes three tight ends who could be boom or bust values in 2018 fantasy football leagues. These players could be breakouts or duds.
Whether you like using a high pick on a tight end or waiting on the position is a matter only you can choose but this article will give you some players to avoid or target at differing price points in the fantasy draft. The prevailing sentiment around the tight end position is there are two or three elite tight ends and after that a steep decline. This is true for the most part although there may be some surprising players both good and bad in 2018. Here, we will take a look at three tight ends who will either boom or bust
The cream of the crop will, for the most part, remain the same. Both Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce are the best tight ends in the league and barring injury will finish the season as number one and number two in the rankings. There are others who have the ability to finish top-five, but don't have the health on a yearly basis including Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed. For our purposes, we are not going to take injuries into account for boom or bust consideration.
If I mark a player as a bust, it does not mean he will be terrible, it just means he may not return value on his draft stock. In reverse a boom player may not finish number one at the position, it simply means he will be a good value at his draft slot. So, with the explanations out of the way, Let’s find some players to feel confident about, or be wary of.
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Boom or Bust? Tight Ends
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Current ADP: 4.04
Wait, the third of the elite tight ends is going to bust? Well, yes. Ertz had a great season last season. He had eight touchdown receptions and showed he is the number one target for Carson Wentz in the Eagles offense. So why the bust status then, Well, last year was also the first season in which he had more than four touchdowns. This very well could mean this may be the outlier season and not the new norm for Ertz. He has always been a player with the potential to breakout, but never the ability, outside of week 17 games this is. Now we may have to wait another season to find out if he can keep improving.
Another issue is his reliability. He has not been the healthiest player even missing time last season due to a concussion suffered in the same game against the Rams in which Wentz was lost. With this unhealthiness seemingly carrying over to this summer in which he has already missed an entire week of practice, rookie Dallas Goedert may take over more of the work before overtaking him in a season or two.
Speaking of Goedert, being he has already impressed with his ability, the Eagles are going to employ more two tight end sets meaning the production will be split between the two athletic tight ends. They will eat into the production of each other and will therefore limit each other's upside. Will Zach Ertz still be a top 10 tight end? Yes. But a top-three finish as he is being drafted? More than likely not in the cards for 2018.
Verdict: Bust
Benjamin Watson, New Orleans Saints
Current ADP: None
A 37-year-old tight end is not the first player you might consider for a boom player in 2018 unless it is a quarterback. Saying this, Ben Watson is not the typical 37-year-old player. He is heading back to an incredible offense in which he just three seasons ago compiled a great statline. In 2015 with the Saints, Watson and Brees connected for 825 yards and six touchdowns on 74 receptions. Drew Brees has always loved to involve the tight end as shown in his 110 targets to Watson in the 2015 season. After a disastrous tenure in New Orleans by Coby Fleener it will be nice to have a real receiver back in the fold at the position.
Even with a terrible offense and an even worse Joe Flacco behind center in 2017, coming off an ACL tear which caused him to miss the previous season, Watson still showed his ability in Baltimore. After another productive year which saw Watson amass 61 receptions for 522 yards and four touchdowns, he returns to Nola and to the scene of his best of seasons. He will be a target monster at the position and considering he is not currently being drafted, he will have great value when he finishes in the top 10 at the position for the Saints and hopefully your fantasy team.
Verdict: Boom
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Current ADP: 14.03
The overwhelming theory is rookie tight ends never work out. Well, while this may be the case, there have not been many rookies with the same opportunity to which Mike Gesicki walks into in Miami. After a miserable season with Julius Thomas, the Dolphins have decided to start over at the tight end position. This means the Rookie out of Penn State, whom many think was the most athletic tight end in the draft will have ample chances to prove himself. After a slow start to training camp, he has really picked up and has made incredible strides in the preseason. As we have seen in the past with his production to Jarvis Landry, Ryan Tannehill will dump the ball off whenever possible, whether this be to Frank Gore out of the backfield or the tight end, it will happen. Gesicki is in line for a big workload in his rookie season and this should help him turn his 14th-round ADP into a TE1 finish in fantasy leagues.
Verdict: Boom
