Boom or Bust WR Predictions: Aiyuk, Kupp, Golladay

Wide receiver is at least the second most important position in fantasy. In certain PPR formats, it can be as crucial as running back.

One simple way to increase your chances of success is to focus on pass catchers working with reliable quarterbacks while crossing off those forced to dive for ducks or mutter at overthrows.

The following three receivers stand to either boom or bust – that is, outproduce or disappoint based on their consensus average draft positions – in large measure because of their QB situations. For purposes of this article, we are referencing FantasyPros PPR ADPs as of July 21.

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Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: WR25, 62nd overall

Brandon Aiyuk came on strong in the second half of 2020 and ended up being as productive as just about any rookie receiver not named Justin Jefferson. Aiyuk was the ninth-best fantasy scorer during the 12 weeks when he was active, earning a 60-748-5 line and running for two more touchdowns while flashing speed, separation, and a knack for making chunk plays.

And for the majority of that time, the first-rounder out of Arizona State might as well have been playing with a piano on his back. Injuries to 49ers starter Jimmy Garoppolo left Aiyuk spending seven games working with shaky replacement quarterbacks Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard.

The aggregate passer rating on throws targeting Aiyuk was 86.6, according to data from Pro Football Reference. That compares with 112.7 for Jefferson and more than 100 for CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, and Tee Higgins -- the only other rookies who outscored Aiyuk.

Aiyuk’s run-after-catch prowess could make him a longshot to stay healthy for 17 games, and there’s no guarantee San Francisco’s QB play will be improved in 2021. The likelihood, though, is that dynamic dual-threat Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL draft, will either seize the job early or provide enough competition to motivate Jimmy G to be his best.

Gamers have gotten wise and pushed up Aiyuk’s ADP into the early fifth round of 12-team leagues. That still leaves lots of room for profit given his potential to crack the position’s top-10.

Verdict: BOOM

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: WR21, 54th overall

Cooper Kupp is one of this year’s premier bounce-back candidates. He and the rest of the Rams’ offense will enjoy the upgrade to gunslinger Matthew Stafford from the worst version yet of dink-and-dunk king Jared Goff. The 28-year-old is also feeling fine after being slowed in 2020 by knee bursitis.

Kupp caught 92 balls last season, not far off his breakout pace from 2019. The problems were fewer yards and touchdowns, and he is set up for positive regression on both fronts this season.

He was targeted at an average depth of six yards last year, a career-low. Stafford, whose mean target depth on pass attempts last season was 8.7 yards, will surely correct that. And Kupp only found the end zone three times in 2020 after averaging seven a year in his first three seasons. Stafford will fix that, too. Despite working with fewer weapons than Goff, he managed a 5.5% TD rate over the past two years, compared with 3.6% for the ex-Rams QB.

Kupp is typically going in the fifth round, perhaps because of misguided worries that the slot star might not mesh with Stafford’s air-it-out game. That’s thievery considering the top-five upside Kupp showed just two seasons ago.

Verdict: BOOM

Kenny Golladay, New York Giants

ADP: WR24, 60th overall

Kenny Golladay gets a quarterback switch, too, but his trajectory is going the wrong way. After working with Stafford for the past four years with the Lions, he is joining the Giants and Daniel Jones.

Fans optimistically nicknamed Jones “Danny Dimes” when he was a rookie two years ago but at this point, the moniker sounds ironic. Jones earned QBRs, or ESPN total quarterback ratings, of 55.7 in 2019 and 61.5 in 2020, compared with 71.3 and 68.4 for Stafford.

Changing teams is another potential snag for Golladay. He may stumble during the adjustment period, as receivers often do in their first year under a new system, according to research by SI.com’s Michael Fabiano. And while the G-Men aren’t overloaded with talent, there should be more competition for targets.

Though Golladay missed most of 2020 with various ailments, he is built like a positional prototype at 6-foot-4, 214 pounds, and he’s been stellar when healthy. He was a top-25 receiver in 2018 and a top-10 guy in 2019, his last two full seasons. He’s the clear No. 1 option in New York and if Jones comes alive as a third-year pro, he figures to benefit most.

That’s a big “if.” The risk-reward trade-off is stacked against Golladay’s drafters. He is going as the 24th receiver while his median projections, as compiled by FantasyPros, put him 30^th at the position. That makes him a classic overpay.

Verdict: BUST

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