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Mike Fanelli gives his fantasy football bold predictions for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season. Should you start or sit Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr.?
Week 12 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season.
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Tua Tagovailoa…
Finishes the week as a top-five quarterback
Tagovailoa’s season hasn’t gone the way fantasy players had hoped. The veteran quarterback missed four games with a concussion. Yet, he is the QB28 for the year, averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game. While Tagovailoa struggled since his return to the lineup, the star quarterback is coming off his best fantasy performance.
Last week, the former Alabama star completed 77.8% of his pass attempts for 288 yards, three touchdowns, and 23.5 fantasy points against the Las Vegas Raiders. Tagovailoa set season-highs in passing touchdowns and fantasy points in the victory.
Jonnu Smith WIDE OPEN for the 57-yard TD!
📺: #LVvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/VMOXPnzMzM— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
By comparison, the veteran had four passing touchdowns over his first three games back from the concussion. Furthermore, Tagovailoa had one passing touchdown in five of his first six games before last week’s contest. Thankfully, he has an appealing matchup on Sunday against the New England Patriots.
The division rivals have surrendered 2.7 passing touchdowns and 20.9 fantasy points per game to non-rookie quarterbacks over the past four weeks, allowing 17.3 or more in every contest. Furthermore, Tagovailoa has played well against the Patriots in Miami, totaling 324 passing yards and three touchdowns in last year’s matchup.
Rhamondre Stevenson…
Scores over 20 half-point PPR fantasy points
Stevenson has been one of the more inconsistent running backs in the NFL. The former Oklahoma star is the RB20 for the year, averaging 12.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He has scored 16 or more fantasy points in half of the games, including 19.9 or more in two of the past four contests.
However, Stevenson has averaged only 5.8 fantasy points per game in the other five contests, totaling 3.5 or fewer twice. The veteran running back has averaged only three yards per rushing attempt over the past five weeks. Yet, he averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game in those five matchups.
More importantly, Stevenson has played well against the Miami Dolphins. The star running back had 12 rushing attempts for 89 yards, a touchdown, and 17.2 fantasy points in the Week 5 matchup against the division rivals earlier this year. His 7.4 yards per rushing attempt average in that game was a season-high.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have surrendered 21.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, the ninth-most in the NFL. They have surrendered over 100 rushing yards and at least one touchdown to running backs in half of their games. Don’t be surprised when Stevenson puts up similar numbers on Sunday.
Brian Robinson Jr.…
Has over 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns
Robinson returned in Week 11 after missing two games with a hamstring injury. The former Alabama star is the RB24 for the year, averaging 13.5 half-point PPR fantasy points despite missing three games with multiple injuries. He was productive against a talented Philadelphia Eagles defense, totaling 63 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 13.7 fantasy points.
Brian Robinson Jr. and the @Commanders power it in for the first points of the game 💪#WASvsPHI on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/E4Czdfd8X4— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2024
While Robinson has had some poor fantasy performances, the veteran has also had some massive outings. He has two games with over 100 rushing yards this season. Furthermore, the third-year pro has a two-touchdown performance in Week 5 against the Cleveland Browns despite having only seven rushing attempts.
Fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised if Robinson has his first game with over 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns this week. He faces a Dallas Cowboys defense with no answers for stopping opposing running backs. They’ve surrendered 111.1 rushing yards to running backs, the 10th-most in the NFL entering Week 12.
Running backs have had over 100 rushing yards in 70% of their matchups against the Cowboys, including five consecutive games. Furthermore, Dallas has surrendered two or more rushing touchdowns to running backs in nearly half of their matchups, including three scores to Joe Mixon last week.
Ladd McConkey…
Ends the week as a WR1
McConkey is quietly the WR16 for the year, averaging 10.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The rookie receiver got off to a slow start, averaging six targets and 9.3 fantasy points per game before the bye week, scoring fewer than 5.9 in half the contests.
However, he has been significantly better since the bye week, averaging 6.5 targets per game. Furthermore, McConkey has been the WR10 over the past four weeks, averaging six targets and 14.1 fantasy points per game, totaling 15.3 or more twice, including against the Cincinnati Bengals last week.
Furthermore, the former Georgia star was the WR2 in Week 8, scoring 26.1 fantasy points in the win over the New Orleans Saints, totaling two receiving touchdowns. McConkey has played well when he has a fantasy-friendly matchup. Thankfully, he couldn’t ask for a better matchup Monday night against the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore has surrendered 36 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the most in the NFL. They have given up 223.2 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 43.5 fantasy points per game to wide receivers over their past six contests before last week’s defensive matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Don’t be surprised if McConkey has another 100 receiving yards and two touchdown fantasy performance.
Will Dissly…
Has his second consecutive top-five finish
Let’s stay in Los Angeles for my final prediction. The Chargers passing attack started slowly, with the team focusing on running the ball. Justin Herbert averaged 22.8 pass attempts per game before the bye week, totaling 27 or more only once. By comparison, the superstar quarterback’s passing rate has significantly increased since the bye.
Herbert has averaged 31 pass attempts per game since the bye week, totaling 27 or more in all but one contest. Dissly’s fantasy value has massively improved with the increase in pass attempts. He has been the TE12 over the past five weeks, averaging 6.6 targets and 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
The veteran tight end scored double-digit in two of those games, including last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Dissly had four receptions on six targets for 80 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 16 fantasy points in the win over the Bengals, setting season-highs in receiving yards and fantasy points.
Herbert finds Dissly up the seam! 29-yard touchdown!
📺: #CINvsLAC on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/zBH6Cpwcm4— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
Meanwhile, he faces a Baltimore Ravens defense that has struggled to stop tight ends. They’ve given up 10.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the 10th-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the Ravens have surrendered 11.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past five weeks, allowing 14 or more in 60% of the contests.
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