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Mike Fanelli gives his fantasy football bold predictions for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season. Should you start or sit Russell Wilson, Nick Chubb, Courtland Sutton?
Week 11 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Russell Wilson, Nick Chubb, Courtland Sutton, Cedric Tillman, and Will Dissly.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season.
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Russell Wilson…
Is the overall QB1 this week
Wilson has played well since replacing Justin Fields as the Pittsburgh Steelers' starting quarterback. The veteran is the QB11 on a points-per-game basis since taking over as the starter, averaging 19.3 fantasy points per contest. He has a higher fantasy average than several big-name quarterbacks, including Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Jayden Daniels over the past four weeks.
Last week, Wilson completed only 50% of his pass attempts against the Washington Commanders. However, he had a season-high three passing touchdowns, including the game-winning throw to Mike Williams late in the game. The Commanders' defense had played well recently, making Wilson’s performance in Week 10 impressive.
RUSSELL WILSON TO MIKE WILLIAMS! @STEELERS LEAD!
📺: #PITvsWAS on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/zM3oWDIj95— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
More importantly, the veteran quarterback has an excellent fantasy matchup against the Baltimore Ravens this week. The AFC North rivals have struggled to slow down opposing quarterbacks. They have surrendered 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing passers, the second-most in the NFL.
Furthermore, Bo Nix is the only quarterback with fewer than two passing touchdowns and 21 fantasy points against the Ravens over the past six weeks. By comparison, the other five quarterbacks averaged 3.4 passing touchdowns and 27.8 fantasy points per game against Baltimore’s struggling defense.
Nick Chubb…
Returns to his superstar form
Chubb is coming off a massive knee injury he suffered in Week 2 last year. Some thought the superstar running back wouldn’t play again after suffering the gruesome injury. Thankfully, the former Georgia star made his season debut in the Week 7 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
However, Chubb hasn’t played well. He has averaged only 2.7 yards per rushing attempt this season, posting a 3.3 or lower average in every game. More importantly, the veteran running back has averaged 6.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, totaling 5.2 or less in back-to-back contests.
The Cleveland Browns had their bye in Week 10, giving the team two weeks to prepare for Sunday’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints. Furthermore, it gave Chubb two weeks to continue to heal from his knee injury and get back into game form. Meanwhile, his matchup in Week 11 is fantasy-friendly.
Last week, the New Orleans Saints surrendered 31 rushing attempts for 175 yards, two touchdowns, and 33.8 fantasy points to the Atlanta Falcons backfield. The Saints have given up 24.3 fantasy points per game to running backs this year, the third-most in the NFL. They have surrendered two rushing touchdowns to running backs in four of their past five games.
Courtland Sutton…
Ends the week as a top-five wide receiver
While Sutton and the Denver Broncos passing attack got off to a rough start this season, they’ve been clicking lately. The veteran wide receiver is the WR16 for the year, averaging 9.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He averaged 6.7 targets and 7.2 fantasy points per game over the first seven weeks.
The former SMU star scored more than 5.8 fantasy points in only 42.9% of those seven games. Thankfully, Sutton has been outstanding lately. The veteran wide receiver is the WR4 over the past three weeks, averaging 10 targets and 16.3 fantasy points per game, scoring 16 or more in back-to-back contests.
Last week, Sutton scored a receiving touchdown against a talented Kansas City Chiefs pass defense. He has had a touchdown in three consecutive matchups against the back-to-back Super Bowl champions. Thankfully, the veteran wide receiver has a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
Bo Nix goes deep to Courtland Sutton for the 32-yard TD! @Broncos lead 14-3 👀
📺: #DENvsKC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/zCVxAlrDBs— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
Atlanta has given up 28.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the 10th-most in the NFL. They have surrendered 30 or more fantasy points in back-to-back games. More importantly, the Falcons gave up three receptions for 109 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 24.4 fantasy points to Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week. Sutton should thrive against Atlanta’s struggling defense.
Cedric Tillman…
Has his third consecutive top-12 finish
Hopefully, fantasy players added Tillman off the waiver wire a few weeks ago. The second-year wide receiver has been outstanding since the Cleveland Browns traded away Amari Cooper and lost Deshaun Watson to a season-ending torn Achilles. Many believe he could be a league-winning addition off the waiver wire.
While some hoped Jerry Jeudy would become a fantasy star after the Cooper trade, the former Tennessee Volunteer has become a must-start wide receiver. Tillman was the WR1 from Week 7 through Week 9, averaging 10.7 targets and 18.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
Furthermore, the second-year pro has had three consecutive top-14 finishes. Tillman was the WR14 in Week 7, the WR3 in Week 8, and the WR12 in Week 9 before the Browns’ bye. He scored three receiving touchdowns in those three games, totaling at least one in back-to-back contests.
More importantly, Tillman has an appealing matchup in Week 11. The New Orleans Saints have struggled to slow down opposing No. 1 wide receivers, giving up 17.2 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks. Tillman’s floor this week is top 12, while he could finish as the overall WR1.
Will Dissly…
Is the best streaming tight end option in Week 11
With Trey McBride and Cade Otton on a bye this week, fantasy players must find a replacement off the waiver wire. Furthermore, Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid are dealing with injuries and could miss their Week 11 games. Thankfully, Dissly is an excellent streaming option.
The veteran tight end is the TE27 for the year, averaging 4.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, Dissly's role on offense has grown after a slow start, averaging three targets and 3.5 fantasy points per game over the first six weeks this season.
By comparison, the veteran has averaged 6.8 targets and 6.5 fantasy points per game over the past four weeks, totaling at least six targets in all but one contest. More importantly, he had the second-highest first-read target share in Week 10 (41.7%), finishing only behind Davante Adams (per Fantasy Points Data).
First-Read Target Share leaders from Week 10.
- Will Dissly did this on 14 routes.
- Is Jauan Jennings the alpha?
- Calvin Ridley cannot be stopped pic.twitter.com/DWBJ9WfgFV
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) November 11, 2024
Dissly has an excellent matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. They have surrendered 12.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the fourth-most in the NFL. The Bengals have given up at least seven receptions for 67 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 16.2 fantasy points to tight ends in three of their past four matchups.
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