RADIO
Week 11 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Patrick Mahomes, Breece Hall, Adam Thielen, T.J. Hockenson, and Trey McBride.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Patrick Mahomes…
Is the QB1 and has four passing touchdowns
Fantasy players likely used a top-30 draft pick on the superstar quarterback. Unfortunately, Mahomes is only the QB9 for the year, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game. He has scored under 19.6 fantasy points in 77.8% of the games this season, including five of the past six contests. However, expect a bounce-back performance from the former Texas Tech star.
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off their bye week after an impressive win over the Miami Dolphins in Germany. Mahomes had a solid performance, totaling two passing touchdowns and 15.8 fantasy points on only 30 pass attempts. However, the superstar had a four-passing touchdown performance in Week 7, scoring 33.9 fantasy points, a season-high.
Mahomes will have to throw the ball at a high rate Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The superstar’s production has been limited because the Chiefs have an elite defense. However, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles should score plenty. More importantly, Philadelphia has surrendered seven passing touchdowns and 59.3 fantasy points to Sam Howell and Dak Prescott over their past two games.
Breece Hall…
Bounces back and has a top-five finish
Head coach Robert Saleh took Hall off a pitch count ahead of the Week 5 matchup against the Denver Broncos. The second-year running back had a breakout performance, totaling 22 rushing attempts for 177 yards, a touchdown, and 26.9 half-point PPR fantasy points, a season-high. He had 17.8 and 18.3 fantasy points in his next two matchups. However, his rushing production fell off a cliff.
After averaging eight yards per rushing attempt against the Broncos, Hall has averaged only 2.5 yards per attempt over the following four games. Last week, he averaged only 2.2 yards per rushing attempt despite a friendly matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. More importantly, the former Iowa State star has scored fewer than 9.1 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks.
However, Hall should bounce back against the Buffalo Bills. He had 127 rushing yards and 15.2 fantasy points on only 10 rushing attempts in the Week 1 matchup against the division rival. Meanwhile, Buffalo has surrendered 95 or more rushing yards to running backs in half the games this season, including Week 1 against New York. The only way the Jets can win this game is by force-feeding Hall the ball until he takes one to the house.
Adam Thielen…
Ends the week outside the top 36 wide receivers
Arguably, the biggest surprise in fantasy football this year has been the reemergence of Thielen. The veteran wide receiver is the WR11 for the year, averaging 14 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He has 68 receptions on 86 targets for 652 receiving yards and four touchdowns, leading the Carolina Panthers in every category. According to Fantasy Points Data, Thielen also leads the team in receiving yards market share at 33.8% and first-read target share (33%).
Unfortunately, the veteran wide receiver has struggled lately. Since Carolina’s Week 7 bye, Thielen has been the WR35, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game. He scored fewer than 7.3 fantasy points in two of three contests. By comparison, Thielen was the WR5 over the first six weeks of the year, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. The veteran scored 16.9 or more in all but two matchups.
While I believe he will rebound over the final third of the year, fantasy players want to avoid starting Thielen in Week 11. The Dallas Cowboys have held wide receivers to only 21.5 fantasy points per game this season, the third-fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, the Cowboys have surrendered fewer than 21 fantasy points to wide receivers in over half of their games this year.
T.J. Hockenson…
Scores over 20 half-point PPR fantasy points for the second consecutive week
Last week, Hockenson had an outstanding performance in Joshua Dobbs’ starting debut with the Minnesota Vikings. The veteran tight end had 11 receptions on 15 targets for 134 receiving yards and a touchdown in the victory over the New Orleans Saints. He was the TE1 for Week 10, scoring 24.9 half-point PPR fantasy points. More importantly, Hockenson has been a go-to target for the veteran quarterback.
Over the past two weeks, the former Iowa star tight end has seen at least 12 targets in both games. He has a 36% target per route run rate, 40.3% receiving yards market share, and 0.47 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data) with Dobbs on the team. Yet, these numbers aren’t surprising for the veteran tight end. Hockenson has had at least eight targets in all but one game this season.
Hopefully, Justin Jefferson returns after missing the past five weeks with a hamstring injury. However, his return won’t severely impact Hockenson’s fantasy outlook this week. The Denver Broncos have surrendered 12.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the most in the NFL. They have given up at least 11.6 fantasy points to tight ends in five of their past six contests. Hockenson will have no trouble picking apart Denver’s defense.
Trey McBride…
Outscores Travis Kelce and is the TE1
After a quiet rookie season, some had high hopes for the second-year tight end in 2023. However, McBride had a slow start to the season. He was the TE32 over the first seven weeks, averaging 3.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Colorado State star had fewer than 4.5 fantasy points in all but one contest.
However, things changed when Zach Ertz got hurt. McBride has played the past three games without Ertz and with three different quarterbacks. Yet, he has been the TE4, averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks. The second-year player scored 17 or more fantasy points twice, including last week with Kyler Murray. McBride led the team with eight receptions on nine targets for 131 receiving yards in the win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans have been a fantasy goldmine for opposing tight ends. They have surrendered 12.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, the second-most in the NFL. Over their past five games, the Texans have given up 8.6 receptions for 79.2 receiving yards and 15.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends, surrendering 20 or more points twice. McBride has quickly become a fantasy star and is a must-start this week.
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