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The NASCAR Cup Series season officially gets going on Thursday night with the two Bluegreen Vacations Duels. These races set the lineup for Sunday's Daytona 500 and also pay out points to the top 10 finishers.
The first Duel race is set to determine the inside row for the 500. It also determines one of the open spots for the 500, with Jimmie Johnson and J.J. Yeley battling for the final spot in the field from this Duel race.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Bluegreen Vacations Duel No. 1 on DraftKings this week. This slate locks on 2/15/24 at 7:19 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings
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Martin Truex Jr.
Starts 14th - DK: $9,600
Daytona isn't a great track for Martin Truex Jr. The veteran driver has made 37 starts here with zero wins, three top-fives, and six top-10s. Just a pretty rough track record in the actual races. However, two things give me some hope here with Truex.
As mentioned, it's not unusual for Toyota to be off-pace in #Daytona500 qualifying, but:
P22 - Erik Jones
P26 - Martin Truex, Jr.
P28 - Bubba Wallace
P29 - Ty Gibbs
P32 - Christopher Bell
P34 - Denny Hamlin
P35 - Jimmie Johnson
P36 - Tyler Reddick
P39- JH Nemechek#NASCAR https://t.co/KQqzFjCRUP— Joseph Srigley (@joe_srigley) February 15, 2024
The first is that his performance at Daytona has improved lately, with three top-15 finishes in his last four Daytona starts. Couple that with the fact that he usually runs better in the Duels, with six finishes in a row of 12th or better, and you get a slightly better idea of what Truex can do here than you would if you looked at his overall career.
The other thing, which will be the defining theme of this weekend across all series, is that he offers some place differential upside. That's not as important in this race as it will be in the 500 since there are fewer drivers in this 21-car field, but it's still a positive. Anything can happen at Daytona, so I feel most comfortable playing guys who don't start in the top 10.
Tyler Reddick
Starts 19th - DK: $9,400
Of the drivers expected to be competitive here, none have more place differential than Tyler Reddick, who starts ahead of only Carson Hocevar and J.J. Yeley. This makes him an appealing option on Thursday night.
Reddick has a really uneven history at Daytona. He was second in the fall race here in 2022, but his 2023 results weren't good as he finished 39th and 25th in the two races. He's also never finished better than eighth in a Duel.
But Reddick's also a former winner here in the Xfinity Series. He's also one of five Toyotas starting in the latter half of this field. There's definitely a scenario here where those cars hook up early and work their way to the front.
Jimmie Johnson
Starts 18th - DK: $9,000
After a poor qualifying effort, Jimmie Johnson finds himself in a tough predicament. The best way to guarantee a spot in the Daytona 500: beat J.J. Yeley.
Jimmie Johnson on not locking into the Daytona 500 field during single-car qualifying with his fate determined by the duels Thursday: “I thought we were going to be in a little better position than this. But it is what it is. We’ll go to work.” pic.twitter.com/XxCG76wXHB
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) February 15, 2024
The best way to beat Yeley? Run well, of course! While a lot of drivers in this field will be incentivized to play it safe and keep their car clean, Johnson's got to get to the front and make sure he gets into Sunday's race. There's definitely risk playing him since he's a part-time driver without the same level of familiarity in this new NASCAR car as the rest of the field, but he's also a seven-time Cup Series champion. I trust him to get it figured out.
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Ty Gibbs
Starts 15th - DK: $8,000
This should be a big year for Ty Gibbs. Joe Gibbs Racing drivers usually win races in their first two seasons with the team and I expect that trend to continue with Gibbs in 2024. He's a young, talented driver who just needs that breakthrough win, and then the floodgates will open.
With that said, Gibbs has really struggled at Daytona in three Cup Series starts and one Duel here, failing to record any top-10 finishes. He did run solid here in two Xfinity Series starts back in 2022 though, finishing 11th and seventh.
Why I like Gibbs on Thursday night is that I think he goes under the radar in GPPs. There are other drivers with better track records here, but something just feels right about Gibbs in 2024. It starts on Thursday.
Corey LaJoie
Starts 17th - DK: $7,400
I'm really excited to see what this Spire team looks like in 2024 after it made major moves in the offseason. Corey LaJoie was the team's best driver last year, but you can argue he's now No. 3 in the pecking order after the team put Carson Hocevar in the No. 77 car and added a third car for Zane Smith.
LaJoie brings a really solid track record at Daytona into this weekend. He has just four top 10s in 14 starts, but his average finish of 18.1 is really solid, especially considering the equipment he was racing in before he joined Spire. He was fifth in his Duel race last year.
Austin Dillon
Starts 4th - DK: $6,100
I know I said to avoid drivers starting up front, but I think the price point on Austin Dillon is so low that he's worth taking a chance on. The veteran driver of the No. 3 car knows his way around this track. He's won here twice, with nine top 10s in 21 starts.
Austin Dillon ran a 49.745-second lap. Last year, that would've been the third-fastest lap run in qualifying. #NASCAR
— Jonathan Fjeld (@Jonathan_Fjeld) February 15, 2024
His last two Duel finishes here weren't great, but before that, he'd had five top 10s in a row in Duel races, which included a win in Duel 2 back in 2021. Dillon can definitely stay out of trouble and win Thursday night's first race.
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