RADIO
For the first time in over 60 years, the PGA Tour is set to play a professional tournament in the state of Utah. The host venue is Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah, a course that has barely been open for one year. The course weaves through the desert and lava rock formed when a regional volcano erupted, and let me be the first to tell you, that this place will make you want to book a trip to Utah to play some golf!
The Black Desert Championship marks the third event in the new PGA Tour Fall swing. Once again, the field unfortunately lacks some top-tier talent and name recognition, but it provides an amazing opportunity for up-and-coming players in search of a breakthrough victory. I'm excited to see how this course plays, and I think I have researched enough to form a solid action plan for evaluating the appropriate skill sets for Black Desert.
As always, my primary goal with this article is to give you a place to start your research and preparation for the upcoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most here. Without further ado, Here are my top 10 players for the brand-new Black Desert Championship.
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No. 10 - Ben Griffin
The Fall swing has treated Ben Griffin well in recent years. He's now become one of the higher-rated players in the field for the Black Desert Championship and he's elevated his game with consistent and high-level iron play. Griffin ranks 2nd in the field in strokes gained approach from 150-225 yards, showcasing terrific mid-iron precision that will help him a great deal on this style of golf course.
Griffin had a bit of a disappointing finish last week at the Sanderson Farms with a T37 result. It's a tournament that he nearly won before, so the fact that he failed to finish inside the Top 30 had to leave a bit of a sour taste in his mouth. He has lost strokes on approach now in two consecutive events, so my concerns of deteriorating form is the reason I have him ranked a bit lower than you will see on an odds board.
No. 9 - Stephan Jaeger
Stephan Jaeger has the best single win of any player in the field over the last year. He stood toe to toe with Scottie Scheffler in Houston a few months ago and came away with a victory, a feat that was a tall task worth celebrating. He's now starting to trend back in the right direction with his results, yielding three consecutive Top 40s in his last three tournaments played.
I wish he was doing it more with his iron play that tends to be more predictable for any player, but Jaeger comes into this week with a red-hot putter. He's gained nearly nine strokes putting in his last two tournaments. He has all the tools, including the power, that I think it will take to win this week if he can put together a positive result with his approach play. Jaeger is one of the few guys in the field you can call a winner, and he'll look to draw upon some of that confidence at Black Desert in a weak field.
JAEGERBOMB!
Stephan Jaeger ranks 8th in driving distance this season 💣 pic.twitter.com/thzQlcEdyR
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 1, 2024
No. 8 - Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Thorbjornsen ranks 1st in birdie average and 2nd in Driving Distance this week. Those two stats alone make him worthy of consideration at this tournament, which I think breaches the -20 under-par mark and provides the fairway width off the tee to send Driver into the canyons of Utah. The budding star is still in search of a late Sunday afternoon sweat for a victory and this could be the week that he shows up to the party.
Thorbjornsen is coming off an impressive T8 result at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week. He'll need to moderately improve on his mid-iron play but he should be able to easily leverage his distance advantage on the rest of his competition. If you are looking for the most purely gifted player in the field, then look no further than Thorb!
No. 7 - Ryan Fox
The old crafty veteran Ryan Fox still has plenty left in the tank and is trending in the perfect direction for this week. Fox still ranks 13th in the field in Driving Distance despite his age and he has been extremely sharp as of late with his irons. His strokes gained approach numbers in his last three measured starts are +3.8, +2.6, and +3.9 last week at the Sanderson Farms.
Fox typically struggles a great deal on courses with his short game around the greens. I have almost zero emphasis on short game based on my research for Black Desert. If you are missing greens, then you are missing the cut. The greens are huge and his GIR rates should be very high. If he continues to play like he has been, Fox is my favorite pick beyond 35/1 to win this event. Unleash the old man's power!
Ryan Fox's golf swing is so cool.
- Dad was a rugby player
- Super strong grip
- Loads of side bend
- Incredibly powerful pic.twitter.com/pJwi5NCVXF— LKD (@LukeKerrDineen) September 18, 2023
No. 6. Beau Hossler
If you only knew the pain of suffering through the final hour of the Sanderson Farms Championship with betting tickets on Beau Hossler and Keith Mitchell...
Hossler came so close once again, ultimately suffering defeat to a birdie in the playoff. He battled back strong, but his inaccuracies off the tee and in relatively simple scoring chances when the pressure was on became troubling for me. He makes a ton of birdies, but also too many bogeys at this point to back him once again, this week at half the betting price that I was able to get last week. He's still an elite putter though, which can carry you in tournaments when it becomes a putting contest, and going low is the most important thing.
No. 5 - Seamus Power
Seamus Power surging back into proper form is something I have been seeing in the data tables, but it's yet to feel like he's ready to win again for me. Power just posted his second finish in a row that was inside the Top 11. He had a very solid showing in Jackson last week, gaining strokes in all four major statistical categories.
He's also one of the best par 5 scorers in the field, which allows him to fly up the leaderboard quickly. I think he can win this tournament, but I also feel like his betting price is slightly overvalued based on my evaluation of the course and his current form. Power makes his home in Vegas, so he should feel quite comfortable with desert golf and the chance to put another trophy on the shelf during the swing season.
No. 4 - Kurt Kitayama
I wish Kurt Kitayama was playing more golf. It's hard to have a solid grasp on the current status of his game given that we have only seen him play once in the past two months which was a missed cut at the Wyndham Championship. He clearly has one of the best skill sets and talent ceilings in the field which is why the oddsmakers have given him so much respect this week.
Kitayama has a great stat profile for the Black Desert Course. He ranks inside the top 20 in Driving Distance, going for the green percentage, and strokes gained from tee to green. The only reason that I don't have him ranked higher is the mystery. Out of sight...a bit of out of mind. It's hard for me to back a player with little to no recent data to evaluate, but clearly, he's a winner that is worthy of top-end consideration.
No. 3 - Patrick Fishburn
My stat model this week featured eight different statistical categories that I feel are the most important for this particular course. Patrick Fishburn is the only player in the field to rank inside the top 40 in all eight categories. He's proven to be an elite driver of the ball, accelerating past the field in both distance and accuracy on a weekly basis.
I have been impressed with his iron play, which remains streaky at times but has shown glimpses of the spikes in positivity that we look for. It's the current form that leads me to believe that this may be the week that he breaks through for victory. Fishburn has posted three different Top 6 finishes in his last five PGA Tour starts. Black Desert looks like an ideal course fit for a player with Fishburn's game and confidence.
No. 2 - Chris Kirk
The only think preventing Chris Kirk from being ranked #1 in my power rankings is he lacks a little bit of power and pure distance which I think is a big advantage at Black Desert Resort. Other than that, Kirk looks to be the class of the field in most other categories. He's the only player in the field that was able to make it to the Tour Championship last season, and he finished T9 in a recent start at high elevation and on a new course at the BMW Championship at Castle Pines.
There are a number of holes that I have studied that look like they will fit Kirk's signature tight draw off the tee perfectly. He's savvy around the greens and can make big putts when it matters the most. Everyone is starting from scratch on the greens and I'm confident in Kirk's ability to quickly learn them and putt them with confidence. He should be one of the favorites to win.
No. 1 - Keith Mitchell
I suppose we are doing this again. I thought Keith Mitchell had the Sanderson Farms locked up, but things are never easy for him. His failure to stand tall against Kevin Yu and Beau Hossler in contention has shaken me into questioning his ability to close, which is only accentuated when you 3-putt the last green.
All that said, nobody is statistically hitting a golf ball better than Mitchell. He ranks Top 10 in the field in Approach, OTT, Distance, Birdie Average, and Tee to Green. He's done everything except win, so maybe now that I am not betting on him, it will finally free him up to win. He's playing too well to not capitalize at least one time....right?! This hurt me to my core.
Keith Mitchell will have to wait for win No. 2.
He bogeys the last to finish T3 @Sanderson_Champ. pic.twitter.com/fugxToxILg
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 6, 2024
Enjoy the Black Desert Championship and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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