Biggest Wide Receiver Surprises of 2021 - Fantasy Football Year In Review

Phil Clark breaks down the biggest surprises at wide receiver from the 2021 fantasy football season. Who has seen their ADP affected heading into 2022?

Anyone who assembled a roster during the 2021 season experienced a unique journey that required enormous flexibility. This included the ability to navigate the unwanted absence of players that you were depending on due to injuries, COVID protocol, and other unplanned developments. Many of you have now transitioned from the emotions surrounding your final results in 2021, as your focus has shifted toward the construction of rosters for 2022.

This includes reshaping your teams in dynasty leagues, building new rosters in the Best Ball format, and bolstering your research in preparation for redraft leagues. Regardless of which formats you are involved with, the team at RotoBaller is already providing an enormous collection of material that creates an early pathway toward capturing league championships this season.

That includes our series of season reviews that will examine the breakouts and busts from 2021, along with the players whose final numbers produced the biggest surprises. This article will breakdown unexpected performances from players at the wide receiver position. Some of these receivers assembled numbers that exceeded expectations, while the performances of others could be only categorized as disappointing.

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Exceeding Expectations

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

The fifth-year receiver did not emerge from obscurity when he skyrocketed to the league lead in a mammoth number of receiving categories, as he had averaged 129 targets, 93 receptions, 1,068 yards, and 6.5 touchdowns during 2019-2020. However, the exceptional results that he delivered in 2021 easily surpassed all expectations. Kupp was the 16th wide receiver to be selected during the draft process, which placed him securely in the fourth round. Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, and teammate Robert Woods were all chosen directly before Kupp, who proceeded to construct the most prolific season at his position.

You can always count on Coop!

📺 @NFLonFOX | @CooperKupp pic.twitter.com/ZeHckU4hJD

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 9, 2022

Kupp accumulated more targets than any other wide receiver (191/11.2 per game) and rarely relinquished the league lead throughout the year. He captured 10+ targets during 14 of his matchups, and also eclipsed 12+ in nine different outings. He also attained a 31.7% target share, while stockpiling 57 more targets than his previous career high.

He also paced his position in receptions (145/8.5 per game), which were 22 more than any other receiver. That also established a new franchise record, as he accrued at least nine catches in nine different outings. 30 of those receptions registered 20+ yards, which also led the league, while Kupp’s 89 first downs receptions represented yet another league-high.

Kupp's league-best 1,947 yards (114.5 per game) were 331 more than any other receiver. That secured another franchise record, as he eclipsed 100+ yards in 11 different games, and only missed Calvin Johnson’s current single-season record by 17 yards. Kupp’s career-high 16 touchdowns were also the most at his position, as he scored in 11 different contests. He also led the league in yards after catch (846), red-zone targets (38) targets inside the 10-yard line (18), and targets inside the five-yard line (11).

Kupp’s massive contributions to the Rams’ aerial attack resulted in the accumulation of stats that surpasses the collection of numbers that were mentioned in this article. Anyone who secured him for their rosters reaped the benefits from his ongoing statistical excellence, which extended far beyond preseason projections. Kupp should remain cemented as the Rams' primary receiving weapon this season and deserves consideration as the first wide receiver to target during your drafts.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers 

37 wide receivers were selected during the 2021 draft season before fantasy managers secured Samuel for their rosters. That list contained Allen Robinson and Robby Anderson, who are among the receivers that will be included with this article’s largest disappointments. Samuel also entered Week 1 amid uncertainty regarding the target distribution that would transpire among San Francisco’s wide receivers.

Samuel had been sidelined during nine different matchups in 2020, while Brandon Aiyuk emerged as the 49ers’ team leader in targets (96/ 8 per game), receptions (60/5 per game), receiving yards (748/62.3 yards per game), and touchdowns (five) as a rookie. That compelled fantasy managers to target Aiyuk two rounds earlier than Samuel. However, it was Samuel who immediately seized responsibilities as San Francisco’s WR1 while delivering a statistical explosion that launched him to WR3 in scoring.

BUILT DIFFERENT. @19problemz FOR THE TD!#HOUvsSF on CBS/49ers App pic.twitter.com/g7NHN2YT2r

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 2, 2022

He entered Week 5 with a league-best 490 yards (122.5 per game) and was tied for fourth overall in targets while averaging 10.8 per game during that span. He also led the league in yards after catch (463) from Weeks 1-9 and was second in target share (32.3%) and receiving yardage (882/110.3 per game).

Kyle Shanahan opted to deploy Samuel in the 49ers’ backfield rotation at that point of the season, as Samuel averaged 6.6 carries and 42.9 rushing yards per game from Weeks 10-18, and accrued the second-highest number of backfield snaps among wide receivers (80), according to PFF.  Samuel also accumulated seven touchdowns on the ground during those matchups, which tied him for third overall regardless of position.

His involvement as a rusher impacted his usage as a receiver (5.0 targets/3.5 receptions/65.4 yards per game), although that did not impede Samuel from finishing fifth overall in yardage from Weeks 1-18 (1,405/87.8 per game). He also led the league in yards per reception (18.2), yards per target (11.6), and receptions of 40+ (nine), while Samuel also accumulated a league-best four games with 150+ yards.

Samuel’s proficiency and versatility should keep him highly involved in Shanahan's strategic approach, which elevates him among your most enticing targets during this year’s draft process.

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders

Renfrow entered 2021 with career averages of 5.1 targets, 3.6 receptions, and 43.3 yards per game, while he had also finished outside the top-50 in scoring during 2019 (WR55) and 2020 (WR59). This left fantasy managers largely uninterested in securing Renfrow for their rosters as his ADP was positioned near the periphery of 300 (289/WR88).

However, he easily surpassed all expectations by soaring to WR10 from Weeks 1-18. His per-game averages also rose significantly during his third season (7.6 targets/6.1 receptions/61.1 yards).

Just disgusting, @renfrowhunter 😱

10-0 in LV | #LACvsLV | NBC pic.twitter.com/FosvBiPOMg

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) January 10, 2022

Renfrow tied for eighth among all wide receivers in receptions (103), was eighth in yards after catch (452), sixth in red-zone targets (25), and fourth with 13 targets inside the 10. Renfrow also eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards (1,038) while also tying for ninth in touchdowns (nine), finishing 16th in first down receptions (51), and 17th in targets (128).

Renfrow’s statistical surge intensified after the Raiders released Henry Ruggs III on November 3, as Renfrow ascended to second overall in red-zone targets (18), fourth in receptions (65), and 12th in targets (77) from Weeks 9-18. He was also 13th in receiving yards (639) and 10th in yards after catch (266) during those matchups.

He also finished at WR2 from Weeks 12-14 while leading all receivers in receptions (30), yards after catch (155), and 100+-yard performances (three). He also assembled 102+ yards during all three matchups while finishing second in receiving yards (353) and fifth in targets (33) during that span.

The Raiders should infuse another weapon into their receiving arsenal during the offseason, as the addition of a dynamic downfield weapon would blend favorably with Renfrow’s reliable presence in the slot. This will sustain Renfrow's status as an essential component in the Las Vegas attack and he can be targeted as a high-end WR3 during your drafts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions  

St. Brown’s primary contributions to fantasy managers were assembled from Weeks 13-18. This separates him from the other receivers that have been discussed, as their numbers were constructed steadily throughout the season. However, the enormous impact of  St. Brown's prolific six-game sequence cannot be dismissed, nor can the unexpected nature of his sudden emergence as a significant point producer.

#Lions rookie WR Amon-Ra St. Brown had the most receptions (90) for any first-year player in #NFL history who was not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the draft. #Onepride @amonra_stbrown
pic.twitter.com/iyxR9hkT4i

— Logan Lamorandier (@LLamorandier) January 23, 2022

16 wide receivers had been selected during the 2021 NFL Draft before Detroit secured St. Brown with the 112th overall pick. He also did not elicit the same enthusiasm with fantasy managers as the high-profile rookies that had been selected before him, as St. Brown remained available until Round 20 during the majority of drafts.

The indifference was initially justified as St. Brown entered Week 4 with a modest 8.4% target share while averaging 3.3 targets, 2.0 receptions, and just 14.3 yards per game. He also entered Week 13 with season-highs of eight targets, seven receptions, and 70 yards. However, St. Brown attained 10+ targets and 8+ receptions in each of his final six contests while generating 85+ yards in five of those games.

St. Brown vaulted to second overall in targets (67/11.2 per game/33.5% share), second in receptions (51/8.5 per game), and third in receiving yards (560/93.3 per game). St. Brown was also sixth in red-zone targets (nine) and third in touchdowns (five).

Amon-Ra St. Brown powers his way to the goal line!@Lions take the lead in ATL. #OnePride

📺: #DETvsATL on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/bBWOMkRgeq

— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2021

St. Brown’s late-season surge propelled him to WR2 behind only Kupp from Weeks 13-18 while it also vaulted him to 13th overall with 90 receptions (5.3 per game) from Weeks 1-18. He also rose to 24th in targets (119/7.0 per game), 27th in yardage (912/53.6 per game), and 22nd in red-zone targets (15).

St. Brown also completed the year at WR21. That placed him third among all rookies, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle – who had been the first two members of the 2021 class to be drafted. No other Detroit wide receiver surpassed a 13.5% target share during the season and St. Brown is currently primed to garner a sizable target share once again in 2022.

Honorable Mentions:

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers, Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens, Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons

Biggest Disappointments

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

The nightmarish season that was assembled by Robinson has been well-documented. However, this article would be remiss if the lingering distress that his numbers caused for fantasy managers was not included. His Round 3 ADP (33/WR13) appeared justified entering the regular season, in the aftermath of two consecutive finishes as a top-10 scorer during 2019 (WR8) and 2020 (WR9).

Robinson had also accumulated 305 targets, 200 receptions, 2,397 yards, 37 catches of 20+ yards, and 39 red-zone targets during that two-year span while averaging 9.5 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 74.9 yards per game in those matchups.

However, his usage and output plummeted during 2021, as Robinson finished at WR81. He was also limited to 66 targets (19.2% share), 38 receptions, and 410 yards. Those were the lowest totals of his career, during seasons in which he played in at least 10 games. He also manufactured just five receptions of 20+ and was relegated to six targets inside the 20.

Allen Robinson and Zach Moss had the same number of Red Zone Targets. pic.twitter.com/5aI6NyTNaT

— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) January 22, 2022

Robinson was sidelined during five matchups due to the combination of his troublesome hamstring and the reserve-COVID list. However, his per-game averages (5.5 targets/3.2 receptions/34.2 yards) dropped well below his career averages. This degeneration of Robinson’s numbers allowed Darnell Mooney to catapult into the team lead in each of those categories, as Robinson relinquished his status as Chicago’s WR1.

Robinson is now an unrestricted free agent, who will turn 29 in late August. However, the universal plunge in his numbers has placed him among the most viable candidates for a bounce-back season, provided that he surfaces in a favorable environment. His eventual landing spot will also become a major factor in determining where you should target him during the draft process.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

McLaurin’s ability to overcome underwhelming performances from Washington’s quarterbacks had resulted in steadily rising output during 2019-2020. He also led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, and percentage share of air yards during that sequence, while attaining averages of 7.8 targets, 5.0 receptions, 70.2 yards, and 90.1 air yards per game.

McLaurin also rose to WR9 in scoring from Weeks 1-12 in 2020, while vaulting to fifth overall in targets (102/9.3 per game), fourth in receiving yards (963/87.5 per game), and 10th in receptions (69/6.3 per game). A problematic ankle impacted his effectiveness during Washington’s remaining matchups. However, McLaurin’s track record of expanding production and the prospects of operating with Ryan Fitzpatrick had supplied the incentive for selecting him as a WR1 (ADP 30/WR12) during 2021 drafts.

Taylor Heinicke really waved Terry McLaurin downfield, only to then under throw him by 10+ yards.

Give and take with No. 4 under center. pic.twitter.com/s8m5evHiAA

— Ryan Fowler (@FowlerRyan1) December 13, 2021

Unfortunately, McLaurin’s statistical ascension came to a temporary halt last season, as he was negatively impacted by a myriad of deficiencies that permeated Washington’s 21st-ranked passing attack (202.4 yards per game). Fitzpatrick was limited to just one game, as McLaurin functioned with a blend of Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, and Kyle Allen under center.

McLaurin finished at WR30 in point per game scoring (12.6) from Weeks 1-18 and dropped to WR43 from Weeks 15-17 (9.1). His 61.9 yards per game average was the lowest of his career, as was his 59.2% catch rate. His averages of 7.6 targets and 4.5 receptions per game also failed to match the career-best averages from 2020 (8.9 targets/5.8 receptions). McLaurin’s usage and output diminished even further from Weeks 13-18 (5.3 targets/3.2 receptions/44.5 yards per game).

Largest difference in big-time throws vs turnover-worthy plays this season. Meant in a bad way; more mistakes than elite throws (including playoffs PFF)

T1. Jimmy Garoppolo (-16)
T1. Mike Glennon (-16)
T3. Ben Roethlisberger (-12)
T3. Tua Tagovailoa (-12)
5. Taylor Heinicke (-9)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 26, 2022

McLaurin did finish fourth overall in both air yards (1,717) and with his 42.5% share of air yards, while Heinicke finished 18th in intended air yards per attempt (7.6) and just 25th in competed air yards per attempt (3.4). Washington should upgrade from Heinicke, which can be accomplished via trade or by moving up from the team's 11th slot in the upcoming NFL Draft. That would allow McLaurin to resuscitate the statistical ascension that had occurred during his first two seasons.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers 

The incentive for drafting Anderson in 2021 was based on his collection of career-best numbers during the 2020 regular season. He ended the year at WR19 in scoring, while finishing eighth in targets (136/8.5 per game) and receptions (95/5.9 per game) and establishing new highs in each category. Anderson also generated the highest yardage total of his career (1,096/68.5 per game) while eclipsing 1,000+ for the first time since the Jets signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2016.

His ability to thrive during his first year in Carolina's restructured attack under Matt Rhule and Joe Brady had seemingly placed Anderson in a position to remain productive during 2021. This combined with Anderson’s impending reunion with Sam Darnold to supply the motivation for selecting him as a high-end WR3.

Unfortunately for anyone who made that investment, Anderson’s numbers failed to match offseason projections. The Panthers’ offense increasingly unraveled while Anderson’s usage was erratic and his output was frequently underwhelming during the year.

What has happened to Robby Anderson? That was a terrible drop.

He now had just 11 catches over the last 3-plus games despite being targeted ... 31 times.

— Ralph Vacchiano (@RVacchianoSNY) October 24, 2021

Inefficiency from Carolina’s quarterbacks formed an unfavorable blend with Christian McCaffrey’s extended absence and Rhule's decision to transition from Brady to Jeff Nixon as the Panthers’ playcaller. All of which were sizable factors in Carolina’s decline from 18th in passing during 2020 (243 yards per game) to just 29th last season (190.5 per game).

Anderson collected 10+ targets in four different matchups during 2021 but also failed to exceed three targets in five other games. His fluctuating weekly totals contributed to the overall decline from Weeks 1-18 (110/6.5 per game), while his target share dropped from 25.9% to 19.1%.

However, the plunge in other receiving categories was more significant. Just one year after finishing eighth in receptions, Anderson plummeted to 43rd while collecting 42 fewer catches (53/3.1 per game). He was also limited to three receptions of 20+ yards, after accumulating 16 during 2020.

Anderson manufactured a career-low of 519 yards (30.5 per game), which was less than half of his 2020 total. He also failed to surpass 58 yards during 16 of his 17 matchups. Carolina’s situation at quarterback remains unsettled, and it is unclear whether new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo will concoct an approach that capitalizes on Anderson's abilities. Those factors have tempered any optimism concerning Anderson’s 2022 outlook.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos  

Sutton reemerged in Denver’s Week 1 lineup amid questions about his health, concerns surrounding the Broncos’ situation at quarterback, and uncertainty regarding the eventual target distribution that would ensue as Sutton shared opportunities with Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler.

A torn ACL had relegated Sutton to just 31 snaps during 2020. However, he quelled any apprehension about his protracted recovery by stockpiling 12 targets, nine receptions, and 159 yards in Week 2.

Courtland Sutton Target Chart 🎯

Courtland Sutton averaged 20.8 air yards per target on 12 targets (9 rec, 159 yards) in the #Broncos 23-13 win over the Jaguars, including four catches for 117 yards on targets over 10 air yards.#DENvsJAX | #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/kST0SikyC7

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 19, 2021

That propelled Sutton to WR4 during that week’s matchups, while also fueling his rise to 11th in targets (53//8.8 per game), 14th in receptions (33/5.5 per game), and 12th in receiving yards (471/78.5 per game) from Weeks 1-6. Sutton had also commandeered the league lead in air yards during that sequence (887/147.8 per game), was sixth with a 43.5% share of air yards and had also attained an aDOT (average depth of target) of 16.7.

The current NFL leader in air yards is Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (301).

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 20, 2021

Sutton retained his league lead in air yards through Week 8, but his per-game average plummeted to 60.5 from Weeks 9-18, while his percentage share of air yards also dropped to 27.9%. He only averaged 4.0 targets per game during that span while failing to exceed three targets in five of his final nine contests. His per-game averages in receptions (2.0) and receiving yards (21.9) also plunged to anemic levels.

That includes a six-game stretch from Weeks 9-15 in which Sutton did not surpass two catches or reach 30 yards. He also registered just two receptions of 20+ and manufactured only 30 yards after catch from Weeks 9-18 while being limited to 5.5 yards per target and 0.78 yards per route run during that sequence.

Sutton’s statistical decline coincided with the return of Jerry Jeudy following Jeudy’s six-game absence (ankle). Jeudy (45/5.6 per game) and Patrick 43/5.4 per game) both garnered more targets than Sutton, who also trailed his teammates in receptions, yardage, yards after the catch, and yards per route run from Weeks 9-18.

All three wide receivers were encumbered by shortcomings at quarterback, and Denver should upgrade the position during the offseason. Sutton will benefit greatly if the Broncos add a signal-caller who can maximize his capabilities as a downfield weapon.

Honorable Mentions:

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals, Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos, Kenny Golladay, New York Giants

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