X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Biggest Quarterback Surprises of 2021 - Fantasy Football Year In Review

russell wilson fantasy football rankings NFL injury news draft sleepers

Robert Lorge breaks down the biggest surprises at quarterback from the 2021 fantasy football season. Who has seen their ADP affected heading into 2022?

Every year, fantasy managers are treated to surprise performances by certain players. Sometimes those are good surprises and sometimes those are not so good, but they happen every single year regardless. In recent seasons, the quarterback position from a fantasy perspective has changed. Fantasy managers are chasing upside and that often comes from being able to run the football. Guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts are changing how the position is viewed in terms of their fantasy value. Pocket passers are viewed as having limited ceilings – unless that person is Tom Brady.

One of the bigger surprises this season was Josh Allen. No one expected him to bottom out by any means, but finishing as the QB1 two years in a row is very uncommon. The last time it was done was Drew Brees back in 2012 and 2013. While his overall performance and being an absolute stud wasn't a surprise, the fact that no one bested him was at least historical. We're going to be looking at some of the biggest surprises at quarterback for the 2021 season – both good and bad – but it seemed amiss to not include Allen's feat of becoming the back-to-back QB1. Even if that outcome was totally in the cards for him, the result itself could be viewed as somewhat of a surprise.

What constitutes a surprise? This could literally mean a million different things, but we'll be focusing on a few certain criteria. One of those will be "bucking a reputation". Over the years, guys get tagged with all sorts of reputations and it can take a while to break free of them, sometimes multiple seasons. Did any quarterback "buck their reputation"? The more simple ones are the surprisingly good and surprisingly bad performances. Every season, there are players the consensus is higher or lower on – how did these guys fare in 2021? Were those preseason opinions correct? Let's get started.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

For the longest time, Cousins has gotten tagged as a mid-tier QB2. Every year, a new season starts, and the former Spartan is disrespected and almost every year, he solidly outplays his preseason ranking. Say what you will about his "real life" quarterbacking skills, but as far as fantasy is concerned, the dude is a bit of a gamer. Fantasy managers need to get rid of this notion he's just a boring QB2 because he's proven he's more than that, time and time again.

In 2015, his first season as the starter for Washington, Cousins finished the season as the QB8, just 0.50 points behind Aaron Rodgers. In 2016, he was the QB5, outperforming guys like Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Cam Newton. In 2017, he was the QB6, finishing ahead of most notably Drew Brees. Three seasons, three top-10 finishes. In 2018, he finished as the QB13, just outside his fourth straight QB1 finish. Before you knock him too much for his 2017 season, he did finish ahead of Tom Brady, so you know it happens.

In 2019, he had the worst fantasy finish of his career – QB18. You never would've known it if you looked at his stats from that season. He went to the Pro Bowl and completed 69% of his passes and finished with 26 touchdowns and just six interceptions. His 5.9% touchdown rate ranked sixth in the league and his 8.1 yards per attempt average ranked seventh. Unfortunately, for his fantasy managers that season, Cousins attempted just 444 passes, which was 24th in the league. In 2020, he got back to more of the same, another QB1 finish, this time coming in as the QB11, which is exactly where he finished in 2021 too.

In seven seasons as the starter, he's finished in the top-12 five times with one QB13 finish. He's finished as a top-10 quarterback three times and yet, every new season that rolls around Cousins is widely viewed as a mid-tier QB2. Below is a table of three quarterbacks and their per-game averages. Obviously one is going to be Kirk Cousins. One of them is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and the third is a likely Hall of Famer. Any guesses on which one is Cousins? Any guesses on who the other two quarterbacks are?

Completion Percentage Yards Per Game Touchdowns Per Game Interceptions Per Game

QB1

65.0% 234.6 1.8

0.6

QB2

66.9% 260.7 1.8

0.7

QB3 64.2% 265.8 2.0

0.6

QB1 is Russell Wilson. QB2 is Kirk Cousins. QB3 is Tom Brady. You'll see Cousins has a better completion percentage than both other stars. Cousins averages 25 more passing yards than Wilson and their touchdown and interception averages are essentially identical. As far as Tom Brady, over the course of a full 16-game season, Brady has averaged 81 more yards and three more touchdowns than Cousins. In terms of fantasy football, that amounts to about 16 points per season or one measly point per game. Think about that – really think about that.

Since 2018, there are only three quarterbacks with a better TD/Int. ratio than Kirk Cousins – Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson. Cousins' 3.56:1 is impressive. During that same time frame, Tom Brady sits at 3.08:1. Using Cousins' per-game averages over a 16-game season, which is what we're all still most accustomed to, he would finish with 4,171 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. If we just use his per-game averages with the Vikings, his 16-game stat line would consist of 4,162 yards, 31 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. How many quarterbacks do you know out there putting up those kinds of numbers?

In 2022, Cousins is going to have a full-arsenal. He'll once again be throwing passes to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but K.J. Osborn will be back with another year of experience under his belt. Irv Smith Jr. will be healthy in 2022 and there's still Dalvin Cook. He'll have an excellent group of pass-catchers and new head coach Kevin O'Connell coming over after spending the last two seasons under Sean McVay. Don't be surprised if Cousins once again completely outplays his preseason ranking.

 

The Entire 2021 Rookie Class

What an absolute disaster this class proved to be, at least as far as 2021 is concerned. Fantasy managers saw five quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. They were especially excited to get their hands on Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance. The expectations around Lawrence were sky-high. He was walking into a situation where he had D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault Jr., and Marvin Jones Jr. to throw the ball to. Not to mention, he showed in college he was a skilled rusher too. Many thought a top-12 finish was not out of the question.

As far as Fields and Lance, fantasy managers were a little concerned they might not start right away, as both of their respective coaches seemed adamant to give the starting job to their veteran stopgap. Still, the tantalizing upside was enough to capture our attention. Both quarterbacks have absolute cannons and can take off and run at the drop of a dime. They're both incredibly athletic and wouldn't need to be an efficient passer from the start to be a valuable fantasy asset because of the damage they could do on the ground.

All of that, in theory, was correct. It just so happens that absolutely none of this promise ever presented itself. Not a single one of the five first-rounders averaged more than 15 points per game, a number Taylor Heinicke, Daniel Jones, and Trevor Siemian all managed to surpass. What fantasy managers were left with was, well... nothing. Mac Jones, the last one selected in the first round, ended up leading the group in fantasy points with 226.10, which resulted in a QB17 finish, but that's not really an accurate depiction of the value he provided. His 14.13 point per game average was not anywhere close to QB17 – his point per game average ranked 24th among quarterbacks who started at least half the games.

Jones had three games above 20 points and never scored more than 23. In eight games, he didn't even score 13. He was basically a useless fantasy asset because he had no ceiling and his floor was dangerously low. He wasn't even a signal-caller fantasy managers could utilize as a streamer.

Lawrence was even worse with just two games over 20 points, both of which came in the first five weeks of the season. The former Clemson star finished with seven games where he didn't even break 10 points – with a floor that low, being just a streamer, even on the best of weeks, is out the window.

Fields gave fantasy managers nine starts with just two performances with more than 20 points. One of those did result in a big 26.3 point output, but in four games, he didn't even break nine points.

Trey Lance ended up getting just two starts all year but made the most of them. He scored 15.6 and 20.1 in both starting appearances, but if you were one of the fantasy managers that held onto Lance all season waiting for his upside to come alive, it was a lost cause as he spent his rookie season glued to the sidelines.

Zach Wilson started 13 games and like most of his first-round signal-callers, managed just two games with more than 20 points. He did, however, rack up five games where he didn't even break double-digits.

Together, this quintet started 58 games during the 2021 season. 20 times they failed to score more than 10 fantasy points and there were just 10 contests where they collectively broke 20. Together, they combined for another 14 games where they didn't even break 15. It's astonishing that despite five first-round quarterbacks, fantasy managers didn't receive a single starter. Not even a high-end QB2. It's arguable fantasy managers didn't even get a single streaming quarterback out of the 2021 rookie class.

That isn't to say this class is destined for failure, but it certainly means their rookie seasons, from a fantasy perspective, were a colossal failure. Looking forward to 2022, despite only getting two starts, no quarterback might be better positioned for success than Lance. He'll be the starter for the 49ers and he'll have a great trio of pass-catchers to throw to – Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. He'll also have his tremendous athleticism to carry his fantasy value when his arm can't.

Justin Fields also looks like he's in a much better position for fantasy success in 2022. For starters, he'll be the unquestioned starter and fantasy managers should assume he'll receive much better coaching and a game plan that actually fits his skillset – something former coach Matt Nagy never seemed to fully comprehend. Lawrence, as we all know, will no longer have to deal with the Urban Meyer nightmare, which should do wonders within itself, but Chark will also be back healthy, as well as Travis Etienne.

Despite Jones finishing above all of his fellow quarterbacks in 2021, I'd be expecting that to almost completely flip itself in 2022 with the exception of possibly Zach Wilson, Fields, Lawrence, and Lance all having the benefit of gaining points on the ground, which is not something Wilson really showcased as a rookie and we know it's not something in Jones' repertoire.

 

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Wilson was a big disappointment in 2021 and it has nothing to do with the three missed games. Some might attribute his injury to some poor performances following his return, but unfortunately, a player of Wilson's caliber was immediately put back into the starting lineup for a majority of fantasy managers. It's hard to give him a pass for those games, even if there's a solid argument that a pass is warranted because he was started at such a high rate upon his return. So, just how bad was his 2021 season?

% of Games >12 % of Games 20–27.99 PPG % of Games <28 Fantasy PPG

2021

30.76% 46.15% 0.0%

17.77

2020

6.25% 31.25% 31.25%

23.30

2019

18.75% 12.50% 25%

20.85

2018

18.75% 43.75% 6.25%

18.65

2017 18.75% 43.75% 18.75%

21.75

In the past five years, there have only been two where Wilson hasn't averaged at least 20.75 points per game – 2019 and this year. In 2019, however, Wilson had 50% of his games with over 20 points or more and only 18.75% where he scored less than 12. Wilson was worse in both categories in 2021. He had less 20+ point games and more games with less than 12.

Most of his numbers were down across the board. He averaged just 28.6 attempts per game in 2021. It's only the second time since 2015 where he hasn't at least eclipsed 30 attempts per game. In 2020, he was at 34.9, and in 2019, he was at 32.3. His passing yards per game also fell off a cliff. He averaged just 222.4 yards per game in 2021. In 2020, he averaged 263.3, and in 2019, he averaged 256.9 yards. He also had the worst completion percentage since 2017. The biggest drop was in touchdowns per game. In 2017, he averaged 2.13 touchdowns per game. In 2018, he averaged 2.19. 2019, he was at 1.94, and in 2020, he was at 2.50 touchdowns per game. In 2021, that number dropped all the way down to 1.79.

All of his numbers fell across the board and that was despite arguably the best group of pass-catchers he's ever had. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are one of the best 1–2 punches in the entire NFL. Then Seattle went out and added Gerald Everett and drafted Dwayne Eskridge in the second round. One of the big talking points around the Seattle offense has been how much Wilson has been sacked and the pressure he's been under. In 2021, he was sacked 2.36 times per game. That was the lowest per game average since his rookie season all the way back in 2012.

There's good reason to buy back into Wilson in 2022. His value is sure to take a dip after a down 2021, especially with the influx of young, superstar quarterbacks. The hiring of Shane Waldron to be offensive coordinator-- after he had spent the past three years as the passing game coordinator under Sean McVay-- gives reason for optimism that the Seattle offense lets Wilson cook a bit more than Pete Carroll has been willing to do.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Schanuel

Makes Early Exit On Saturday
Cam Smith

Heading To The Bench
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Logan Evans

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday
Jarred Kelenic

Takes A Seat On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Logan Gilbert

Heading To 15-Day Injured List
Emmanuel Clase

Available As Closer For Game 2
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Michael Busch

Sitting On Saturday Versus Southpaw
Brandon Woodruff

"Really Tired" After Latest Rehab Start
Tyler Fitzgerald

Scratched On Saturday
Lawrence Butler

Absent From Lineup On Saturday
Ezequiel Tovar

Still A Week Or So Away From Return From IL

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Catches Bullpen Session On Saturday

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Dylan Carlson

Recalled By Baltimore
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Beeks

Avoids Serious Injury

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Lucas Giolito

Starting On Wednesday Vs. Toronto

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Tyler O'Neill

Heading To The IL

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Mike Trout

Blasts His Ninth Home Run Of The Season

Texans Trade Up For Woody Marks

Jets Select Arian Smith In Fourth Round
Ryan Mountcastle

Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle Not In Game 1 Lineup

Panthers Select Trevor Etienne 114th Overall
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Wasn't Available Friday Due To Recent Usage

Giants Take CFP Darling Cam Skattebo
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Ha-Seong Kim

Targeting June/July Return
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
MLB

Yankees and Blue Jays Postponed On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Jacob Markstrom

Ends Losing Spell Friday
Cole Caufield

Collects Two Points In Friday's Win
Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF