RADIO
Rob looks at the Jacksonville Jaguars and looks at what kind of offseason assets they have, both financially and draft capital wise. Their top three positional needs are identified.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a tough bunch to figure out. After making the playoffs in 2022, they seemed to take a step back despite it being the second year for head coach Doug Pederson. The team also finally got Calvin Ridley on the field and an elite season from pass-rusher Josh Allen. Ultimately, the Jaguars fizzled in the second half of the season. Injuries played a big part in that. Trevor Lawrence never seemed close to 100% all year, but this team has too much talent to have such long periods of utter disappointment as they've had each of the past two seasons.
Previous Divisional Editions breaking down each team's 2023 season, their offseason assets, and their top-three positional needs going into the 2024 NFL Season can be found here:
The Jaguars have plenty of big questions to tackle this offseason. They do not have a lot of cap space, but they must make the most of it before Lawrence needs to be extended. They still have him on his rookie contract, but once he gets paid his market value, things will only get more difficult. What do they need to do this offseason for their team to take the next step? If you want to take advantage of all of our great premium tools, please use promo code, "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.
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Season Review and Offseason Assets
This team is a little difficult to figure out. In the first 10 games of the 2022 season, they were sitting at 3-7. They rattled off six wins in their final seven games of the year to make the playoffs and then beat the Chargers in the opening round of the playoffs. This past season, they started off the season 6-2 before finishing the year 3-6 and missing the playoffs. So, will the real Jacksonville Jaguars please stand up? Honestly, who are they? Are they good? Are they bad? I have no idea. I’m not even sure they do either.
This past season, they finished 13th in points scored and 13th in yards gained. Trevor Lawrence’s final stat line looks pretty pedestrian but finished in the top 10 in expected points added. Lawrence was held back by dropped pass after dropped pass. The entire offense was. Their offensive line was also a major problem. On defense, they finished 17th in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed. Their pass defense was awful. They finished 26th in passing yards allowed and 25th in passing touchdowns given up. Their roster needs some work, and they’ll have to get creative to get it done.
The #Jaguars 28 fumbles were 2nd most in the #NFL, however, they were as unlucky as they were fumble prone.
They recovered just 12 (42.8%) of their 28 fumbles, 3rd unluckiest of any team. pic.twitter.com/jyb4qLIgne
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) February 20, 2024
Jacksonville has $24.6 million in cap space going into the offseason. Most of that will be dedicated to a Josh Allen extension or franchise tag. They’ll cut Cam Robinson, which will save them $17 million, effectively giving them $41.9 million to play with. They could also restructure Christian Kirk’s $24.2 million cap hit to create more space. They’ll need to make tough decisions on Ezra Cleveland (a guard they traded for at the deadline this past season) and Calvin Ridley.
If they re-sign Ridley before free agency officially starts, they will have to give Atlanta their No. 48 (second-round) pick as part of their trade for Ridley. If they do not re-sign him or they re-sign him after the start of free agency, then they give Atlanta their No. 79 (third-round pick). Cleveland is just 26 years old and could be a building block for their offensive line and an extension would help provide continuity to that group. They need to sign star pass-rusher, Josh Allen or they’ll be forced to put the franchise tag on him. They have plenty of choices to make this offseason with their free agents and their decisions will impact their draft stock.
The Jaguars own the No. 17 (first-rounder), No. 48 (second-rounder), No. 96 (third-rounder), No. 114 (fourth-rounder), No. 151 (fifth-rounder), No. 194 (sixth-rounder), No. 210 (sixth-rounder), and No. 203 (seventh-rounder) overall picks in this year’s NFL Draft. As previously mentioned if they re-sign Ridley before free agency officially starts, they’d lose No. 48, which would then go to the Falcons, but would get No. 79 (third-rounder) back. Even if they re-sign him after the start of free agency, they still only have to give Atlanta No. 79.
Biggest Needs
1. Interior Offensive Line
Technically edge rusher is a huge need if Josh Allen were to leave. He had 17.5 sacks, 17 tackles for a loss, and 33 quarterback hits. Guys like that do not hit free agency. Allen will either be re-signed or franchised. He’s an elite pass-rusher and Jacksonville has enough cap flexibility to make either happen. Therefore, we’re going to proceed as if that’s already happened, and Allen is on the team for 2024.
Brandon Scherff is 32 years old and he could be designated as a post-June 1 cut. That move would save Jacksonville $16.5 million in cap space this season. Scherff has a $23.9 million cap hit for 2024. That is a massive number for a 32-year-old guard. If that happens, this need becomes gigantic. He played 93% of the team’s snaps last year. Luke Fortner played 99.8% of the team’s snaps at center, Tyler Shatley played 44% of the team’s snaps at guard and Ezra Cleveland played 32% of the team’s snaps at guard. Cleveland is also a free agent.
Cleveland received the best PFF grade at 59.5. Shatley was at 47.5 with a run-blocking grade of 44.6 and a pass-blocking grade of 51.3. Fortner received a 44.3 overall grade with a run-blocking grade of 40.0 and a pass-blocking grade of 54.9. Fortner was especially bad, giving up four sacks, 28 pressures, and committing five penalties.
Despite having Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville finished 31st with a 3.6-yard per-carry average. Their rushing offense contributed -47.4 expected points, which was the worst in the NFL. Shatley will turn 33 years old this year. He was a 2014 UDFA. Fortner was a 2022 third-round pick but has now struggled massively in his first two seasons in the NFL. If Jacksonville wants a better rushing attack, they need to upgrade the guys in the middle of their offensive line in a big way. With the injuries Lawrence suffered, there is no bigger need.
2. Wide Receiver
Ridley is currently a free agent. Based on his 2023 season, he’s a player that would make a ton of sense to bring back into the fold. However, the draft capital ramifications of re-signing him are huge. Is Jacksonville going to be willing to give up their second-round pick to do so? Ridley will turn 30 during the 2024 season and because of his suspension, he just finished his rookie contract. This will be the only time Ridley will have to cash in and he could take it.
Teams like New England and Carolina could be far more desperate for a receiver than Jacksonville. If Ridley’s priority is getting as much money as possible, Jacksonville is unlikely the place where that happens. Zay Jones only played nine games this season and he could be cut with a post-June 1 designation that would save the team $10 million in cap space this season. If Ridley signs elsewhere and Jones is released, two realistic possibilities, receiver becomes a major position that needs to be addressed. It would leave Christian Kirk as the only receiver on the roster who played more than 350 snaps and who had more than 25 targets.
3. Cornerback
Tre Herndon, Tyson Campbell, and Montaric Brown played 1,545 snaps combined. It was as though the coaching staff couldn’t figure out which one they wanted to play because the snap counts varied between 475 and 589. When targeted, Campbell allowed a passer rating of 127.4. Herndon allowed a 119.7 passer rating and Brown allowed a 119.3 passer rating. No other player in the Jacksonville defense allowed a rating higher than 100. No player with more than 100 snaps allowed a passer rating over 85.
These three players were targeted 172 times and allowed 124 receptions for 1,466 yards and 15 (!!!) touchdowns. They combined for just one interception. Brown had a missed tackle rate of 21% and Herndon’s was 17.8%. These three players were the team’s second, third, and fourth cornerbacks in terms of snaps played. That cannot happen again in 2024.
4. Other Positions of Need: Defensive Line
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