X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Biggest Starting Pitcher Fallers (K-BB%) - Use Caution for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Cristian Javier Shane McClanahan - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

In an age when we have a way to quantify just about anything that a baseball player can do on the field, one statistic that you'll find most analysts taking to heart when it comes to pitchers is their strikeout-to-walk ratio (K-BB%). It is often regarded as one of the most important and predictive statistics out there for evaluating pitchers.

Sometimes simple is good, even in the complex world of baseball statistics and sabermetrics. When it comes to K-BB%, the bigger the number, the better. The more strikeouts a pitcher can rack up, the less the ball is put into play. And fewer walks simply means fewer baserunners and less of a chance at giving up runs.

I examined all starting pitchers who threw at least 80 innings in each of the last two seasons to see which pitchers had the biggest decreases in their K-BB%. I don't want to come out and say fade every one of these pitchers -- because there is certainly a chance they could bounce back. But they're trending in the wrong direction and lower K-BB% usually means that higher ERAs and WHIPs are on the way.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Consistency of K-BB%

The main reason this stat is so helpful is that it has proven to be "sticky," meaning it usually stays relatively stable year to year.

If we look at all pitchers with 80+ innings starts in both 2022 and 2023 and then compare their K-BB% for both years, we see the average change from 2022 to 2023 was just -1.1%. And the overall average K-BB% was right around 15% if we want to establish a baseline.

If a pitcher sees a major increase or decrease in their K-BB% from year to year, it's a pretty clear indication of a major breakthrough (increase) or big-time trouble (decrease). In this article, we will be looking at some of the biggest decreases in K-BB% from the 2022 to 2023 season.

 

Biggest Decreases in K-BB% Last Season

Remember that to qualify for the list, pitchers had to throw at least 80 innings in both 2022 and 2023, that way we have at least a half-year's worth of starts in either season to use for our sample. Tony Gonsolin is coming off arm surgery and isn't someone you're considering drafts as well as Shane McClanahan, who is slated to miss all of the 2024 season after Tommy John surgery.

The rest of these guys are fair game, and I am going to make a case against drafting them at their ADP.

 

Ailing Astros Aces

It was just two years ago that Justin Verlander was underdrafted. He came off a major arm surgery at age 39 and won a Cy Young Award, going 18-4 across 28 starts. Last year, he struggled early in the season with the Mets before being dealt back to Houston and finding his groove.

And while he still finished with a solid ERA of 3.22, it was his highest ERA since 2017. The biggest noticeable difference was a huge decrease in his strikeout rate from 27.8% to 21.5%. His SwStr% dipped to just 11.1% and his BB% jumped two points to 6.7%.

He's now 41 years old and while his fastball velocity is still hanging around 94 mph, opposing hitters made much better contact off him last year. At an ADP of 134, I am out on Verlander when I could be taking a young pitcher who is still on the upward arc of their career.

Verlander's teammate Cristian Javier was one of the biggest busts of 2023. His strikeout rate plummeted from 33% to just 23%. His FB velocity dipped from 93.8 mph to 92.7 mph and as Corbin Young notes in the tweet above, he lost the good arm side run that he had in 2022. That could explain why hitters teed off on his fastball to the tune of 21 home runs allowed and a .455 SLG. For a guy who throws 60% fastballs, that's a huge problem as his offspeed stuff isn't anything special.

Reports from training camp are that he lost 15 pounds and feels great coming into the season, and he could certainly bounce back from his mediocre 2023 season to some extent. But my guess is that he was pitching over his head in 2022 and will likely settle in somewhere between his terrific 2022 season and his mediocre year last season.

At an ADP of 168, I'm not betting on him to reclaim his 2022 form when there are plenty of other pitchers on an upward trajectory in that area worth drafting (like Hunter Brown, for example).

 

Can Bieber, Burnes, or Brady Bounce Back?

Shane Bieber went to Driveline this offseason and it was reported that he gained up to 2.0 mph on his fastball as his average four-seamer was only 91.3 mph last season.

He better hope so because he's been on a downward trend now for several seasons. The last time his fastball averaged over 93 mph was in 2020, which was also when his trademark curveball was at its peak effectiveness (26.3% swinging strike rate, 83% ground ball rate).

His overall Statcast numbers from last season are...well, largely unimpressive as he finished with a 3.80 ERA and a measly 20% K% in 21 starts.

If anything, it speaks to Bieber's ability as a pitcher to continue to get decent results even with below-average velocity and only an 8.0 MPH difference in velocity between his fastball and curveball.

If there's any truth to his breakthrough with Driveline, then perhaps he can regain his form. But once again, we are looking at an ADP of 139 where I would much rather be investing in a more proven commodity than hoping for a bounceback.

Corbin Burnes is a victim of his own success. He was so good in 2022 that his numbers in 2023 (which were still really good) pale in comparison. A 25% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate would be a huge year for most pitchers, but for Burnes, it represented a 5% drop in strikeouts and a 2% increase in walks.

His velocity on his cutter dropped from 95 to 94 mph and the SwStr% on his best pitch decreased from 13.3% to just 10.9%. He's now in Baltimore and set to be the ace of that young staff. I am sure he'll be fine, eat up innings, and pick up wins. But if can't pile up strikeouts like he once did, is he worth the 20th overall pick (his current ADP)?

Brady Singer followed the best season of his career (3.23 ERA, 24% K%) with his worst last season when his ERA ballooned to 5.52 and his K% plummeted to just 18.9%. The lack of strikeouts might have been okay if his ground ball rate had not also dropped to a career-low 50.6%, too.

Unlike the others, he does come pretty cheap at an ADP of 404, but you'd like to see the control come back and for him to have some positive results this spring before taking a shot on him bouncing back.

 

Angels Lefties Lack Control

I have a really hard time rostering pitchers with control issues. And both Tyler Anderson and Patrick Sandoval are those types of pitchers.

Tyler Anderson enjoyed a renaissance of sorts with the Dodgers in 2022 when he won a career-high 15 games and posted career lows in ERA (2.57) and BB% (4.8%). But last year, he struggled badly for the Halos as his BB% jumped all the way to 10.2%. As a pitcher who doesn't overpower anyone with a 90 mph fastball, Anderson relies on a really good changeup and his cutter to induce weak contact. All those extra walks really killed his WHIP (1.49) as he put himself in danger with runners on base far too often. Perhaps he could be serviceable if his control comes back, but he struggled with throwing strikes for much of his career before two solid seasons in 2021-2022. I'll pass.

I was once a big believer in Patrick Sandoval, as he flashed some really good strikeout upside (25.9%) back in 2021 during his first extended run in the majors. And in 2022, he finished with a 2.91 ERA despite a 1.34 WHIP, which may have been one of the more impressive feats for a starting pitcher.

He's been battling control issues for his entire career as his career BB% is 10.1%. He had his worst season in terms of throwing strikes last year as he saw his walk rate swell to 11.3% and his K% drop to 19.6%. The end result was an ugly 1.51 WHIP over 144 innings and 28 starts.

He has a devastating changeup that would be a tremendous out pitch; however, he hasn't been able to locate his fastball and slider early in the count to set hitters up. Instead, he's falling behind hitters and then trying to get by with a 93 mph fastball in hitters counts. And if he doesn't give in and throw a fastball, he's picking at the corners with offspeed stuff and walking hitters instead. There's still potential here with Sandoval, but he's a frustrating pitcher to roster and I'll let someone else roll the dice on him.

 

Other Pitchers on the "Watch List"

Here are some other pitchers who saw their K-BB% drop considerably in 2023, but didn't make the main chart. We have some big names here with guys like Kershaw, Cole, Scherzer, and Nola. And while I am not saying you shouldn't draft them, what I am saying is you should consider where you are drafting them as it's more likely that their best years are behind them.

Follow me for more pitching breakdowns and keep checking RotoBaller for the latest fantasy baseball advice this preseason!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!






POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Denver Broncos3 hours ago

Broncos Defense Comes Up Big Again With Pick-Six, Four Turnovers
Josh Jacobs3 hours ago

’ Touchdown, 136 Total Yards Lift Packers In Week 15 Victory
Romeo Doubs3 hours ago

A Two-Score Return For Romeo Doubs In Packers Victory
Saquon Barkley4 hours ago

Hindered By Undisclosed Injury, Held To 74 Scrimmage Yards
Geno Smith5 hours ago

Questionable To Return On Sunday Night
Denver Broncos5 hours ago

Patrick Surtain II Injures Ankle In Win Over Indy
Jerry Jeudy5 hours ago

Goes For 108 Yards In Week 15
Hunter Henry6 hours ago

Delivers Low Yardage Total In Loss To Cardinals
CeeDee Lamb6 hours ago

Clears 100 Yards In Week 15
Rico Dowdle6 hours ago

Smashes Career-High Again
James Cook6 hours ago

Runs For 100 Yards, Scores Twice In Detroit
Pittsburgh Steelers6 hours ago

T.J. Watt Suffers Low-Ankle Injury In Loss To Philadelphia
Ty Johnson6 hours ago

Bills Lean On Ty Johnson Through The Air In Win Over Detroit
Alvin Kamara6 hours ago

Gets In The End Zone But Leaves With Injury
Drake Maye6 hours ago

Impressive In Week 15 Loss
Josh Allen6 hours ago

Goes Nuclear Again, Post-Game X-Rays Come Back Clean
Adrian Yanez7 hours ago

Falls Short At UFC Tampa
Patrick Mahomes7 hours ago

Picks Up Potential High-Ankle Sprain In Win
Daniel Marcos7 hours ago

Remains Undefeated After UFC Tampa
Vitor Petrino7 hours ago

Gets Finished Again At UFC Tampa
Dustin Jacoby7 hours ago

Pulls Off Stunning Knockout At UFC Tampa
Billy Quarantillo7 hours ago

Gets KO'd At UFC Tampa
Sam LaPorta7 hours ago

Busy In Week 15 Loss
Cub Swanson7 hours ago

Pulls Off Upset At UFC Tampa
Mike Evans7 hours ago

Posts Outstanding Performance In Week 15
Jahmyr Gibbs7 hours ago

Scores Two Touchdowns In Week 15
Bucky Irving7 hours ago

Rushes For Over 100 Yards
Jack Flaherty8 hours ago

Viewed As "Fallback" Option For Baltimore
Jesper Wallstedt10 hours ago

Starts For Wild Sunday
Artemi Panarin10 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Scott Perunovich10 hours ago

Back For Blues Sunday
Brandon Saad10 hours ago

Re-Enters Blues Lineup Sunday
Anthony Stolarz10 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Bo Horvat10 hours ago

Battling A Lower-Body Injury
LeBron James11 hours ago

Might Return On Sunday Night
Deandre Ayton12 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday Night
Scottie Barnes12 hours ago

Goes Through A "Light Workout" On Sunday
Jared McCain1 day ago

Out Indefinitely
De'Anthony Melton1 day ago

On The Move To Brooklyn
Dennis Schröder1 day ago

Dennis Schroder Heading To Golden State
Tyler Toffoli1 day ago

In Danger Of Missing Saturday's Game
SJ1 day ago

Will Smith Back In Sharks Lineup Saturday
Dustin Wolf1 day ago

Takes On Prolific Panthers Saturday
Andrei Kuzmenko1 day ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Jesús Luzardo1 day ago

Cubs Showing Interest In Jesus Luzardo
Kevin Lankinen1 day ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Elias Lindholm1 day ago

Good To Go Saturday
Cam Fowler1 day ago

Blues Pick Up Cam Fowler In Trade With Ducks
Jalen Johnson1 day ago

Will Suit Up For Saturday's Game
Bogdan Bogdanovic1 day ago

Playing Against Milwaukee
Trae Young1 day ago

Available On Saturday
Khris Middleton2 days ago

Active Versus Atlanta
Giannis Antetokounmpo2 days ago

Good To Go Against Atlanta
Kevin Huerter2 days ago

Suffers Another Shoulder Injury
2 days ago

Pistons Waiving Paul Reed
Paolo Banchero2 days ago

Spotted Shooting On Saturday
Nolan Arenado2 days ago

Astros Serious About Trading For Nolan Arenado
Jeffrey Springs2 days ago

A's Acquire Jeffrey Springs From Rays
Samuel Ersson2 days ago

Faces Wild On Saturday
Marc-Andre Fleury2 days ago

In Wild Net For Saturday's Matchup
Linus Ullmark2 days ago

Records 10th Career Shutout
Nick Jensen2 days ago

Continues Prolific Month In Friday's Win
Shane Pinto2 days ago

Ends Dry Spell With Two-Goal Effort
Evan Bouchard2 days ago

A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Donovan Clingan2 days ago

Returning On Friday
Bradley Beal2 days ago

Downgraded To Out
Jamal Murray2 days ago

Upgraded To Available
Christian Braun2 days ago

To Play On Friday
Aaron Gordon2 days ago

Available On Friday
Joel Embiid2 days ago

Won't Return On Friday
Bradley Beal2 days ago

Now Questionable Versus Utah
Christian Walker2 days ago

Seattle Would "Love" To Sign Christian Walker
Carson Kelly2 days ago

Agrees To Two-Year Contract With Cubs
Houston Astros2 days ago

Cam Smith Traded To Houston
Hayden Wesneski2 days ago

Shipped To Houston
Alec Martinez2 days ago

Added To Injured Reserve
Anthony Stolarz2 days ago

Day-To-Day With A Lower-Body Injury
Isaac Paredes3 days ago

Shipped To Houston
Kyle Tucker3 days ago

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker From The Astros
Kyle Tucker3 days ago

Cubs Close To Acquiring Kyle Tucker From The Astros
Nestor Cortes3 days ago

Traded To The Brewers
Adrian Yanez3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Tampa
Daniel Marcos3 days ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated At UFC Tampa
Vitor Petrino3 days ago

Looks To Return To Win Column At UFC Tampa
Dustin Jacoby3 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Tampa
Cub Swanson3 days ago

Searching For 30th Career Win At UFC Tampa
Billy Quarantillo3 days ago

Faces A Legend At UFC Tampa
Devin Williams3 days ago

Traded To The Yankees
Joaquin Buckley3 days ago

Looks For His Sixth Win In A Row
Colby Covington3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Bruno Silva3 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Manel Kape3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Tampa
Tuco Tokkos3 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
Navajo Stirling3 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Kyle Bradish3 days ago

Begins Throwing Program
Nolan Arenado3 days ago

Would Approve Of Trade To The Bronx
Francisco Lindor4 days ago

Back Injury In The Rearview Mirror
Rafael Devers4 days ago

Red Sox Prepared To Keep Rafael Devers At Third Base
Cody Bellinger4 days ago

Yankees Targeting Cody Bellinger
Pete Alonso4 days ago

Mets Still Trying To Bring Back Pete Alonso
Corbin Burnes4 days ago

Giants The Favorites To Land Corbin Burnes
Brenton Doyle4 days ago

Rockies Plan To Hit Brenton Doyle At Leadoff

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jerome Ford - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Waiver Wire Express - Week 16 Lightning Round Including Jerome Ford, Sincere McCormick, Kendre Miller, Jalen McMillan, Marquise Brown, more

Week 15 brought plenty of fireworks and sneaky surprises as many of you stepped into the playoff waters! Whether you sat back with a bye week, cruised to victory, battled through a gauntlet, or have yet to start the playoffs, we're here for all of you with our fantasy football waiver wire pickups lightning round […]


Jordan Addison - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 15 Fantasy Football Projections: (Half-PPR) - Jordan Addison, Amari Cooper, Rico Dowdle, Isiah Pacheco, Jayden Reed, Sincere McCormick, Tank Dell

The fantasy football playoffs are slated to begin this week, so fantasy managers should use all available resources to nail their optimal lineups. Using our Week 15 fantasy football projections for the 2024 NFL season will help you understand where our rankings come from and see how players are expected to perform. Ahead of Week […]


Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Packers vs. Seahawks Sunday Night Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jordan Love, Geno Smith, Josh Jacobs, Zach Charbonnet, Jayden Reed, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and more

With the fantasy football playoffs underway in the vast majority of leagues, we have an excellent matchup for Sunday Night Football between two of the league's most intriguing teams, as the Packers and Seahawks meet in an NFC clash. Both of these squads are fighting for NFC playoff berths. First-year Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald […]


Video: Fantasy Football Playoff Stashes and Streamers to Win Your League - Week 15, 16, and 17 Start 'Em Analysis

After fighting all season long, it is time for the fantasy football playoffs! Our YouTube team is bringing you sharp advice for the postseason. Check out our fantasy football playoff stashes and streamers that can help you win your league! NFL Network and RotoBaller contributor LaQuan Jones gives in-depth fantasy football advice, breaking down some […]


Drake London - NFL, Fantasy football rankings, waiver wire, dfs

Falcons vs. Raiders MNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Drake London, Sincere McCormick, Jakobi Meyers, Kyle Pitts, Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, Brock Bowers

The last game of the all-important Week 15 fantasy football slate features two struggling squads from different conferences. Read our Monday Night Football matchups analysis article for the Falcons vs. Raiders game to help make any fantasy football lineup decisions for both season-long and DFS. Kirk Cousins and the Falcons have choked away the lead […]


Sam Darnold - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Bears vs. Vikings MNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Jordan Addison, more

The fantasy football playoffs are here, and it's never been more critical to set optimal lineups. Read our Monday Night Football matchups analysis article for the Bears vs. Vikings game to help make any fantasy football lineup decisions for both season-long and DFS. While this game is viewed as a mismatch, anything can happen on […]


David Njoku - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 15 (Sunday Morning Updates): Breece Hall, Bucky Irving, Ladd McConkey, Josh Downs, David Njoku, and more

Heading into Week 15 of the NFL season, injuries continue to impact the upcoming schedule. These play a huge factor in start/sit decisions for fantasy managers. Our injury updates and reports for Week 15 as of Sunday, December 15, 2024, will give you the latest updates on key fantasy football players. The injury news for […]


Josh Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Week 15 Predictions: Picks and Analysis for Every Game

The NFL regular season is heading into the homestretch! Several divisional titles are still very much up for grabs as we kicked off Week 15 with a pivotal clash between the Rams and Niners and now move into a jampacked slate with exciting matchups. With every team in action, Week 15 includes two Monday Night […]


Zach Charbonnet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Packers vs Seahawks SNF Showdown (Week 15)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a big Sunday Night Football matchup between two teams that could be seen as rivals over the last decade and a half. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers (9-4) are heading west to take on Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks (8-5). Let’s see how this one plays out.   […]


Derrick Henry - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 15 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 15! This Week 15 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em will help you make the right lineup decisions in the first round of the fantasy football playoffs.  It's wild to think we are already in Week 15 of the NFL season and […]


DeAndre Hopkins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 15 - Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, DeMario Douglas, Rashod Bateman

Welcome to WR Matchups to Target for Week 15. Last week we landed two 2x multiplier picks but failed to secure any home run (3x DK salary multiplier) picks for only the third time this year. This week’s main slate is missing a handful of the highest floor receivers, giving way to pay up elsewhere […]


Jordan Love - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Landmines to Avoid for Week 15 - Jordan Love, Tyrone Tracy Jr., DeVonta Smith, and more

The fantasy playoffs are here, and congratulations -- you made it! With no byes left and managers facing a full roster, it’s all about optimizing matchups. The pressure is on, the stakes are sky-high, and the margin for error is low.  Managers may have relied on certain players to get them here, but the cold […]


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 15 Includes Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Kendre Miller, Cam Akers, Kimani Vidal, and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]