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Now that the dust has settled on the 2023 fantasy baseball season, it's a good time to reflect on a wonderful season.
Many pitchers had breakout moments this season, but a select few put the league on notice for an extended period. For fantasy baseball players, these types of breakout pitchers can often be the player that carries them to that fantasy championship ring. Thanksgiving has passed us, but it is never too late to give recognition to the breakout pitchers that made this past fantasy baseball season worthwhile.
Take a look at three different pitchers who had breakout seasons this year. The circumstances surrounding the breakouts of these pitchers all differed, giving insight into how to approach possible breakout pitchers for the 2024 fantasy baseball season.
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Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
When we think about league-winning pitchers this season, Kyle Bradish should be the first name that comes to mind.
Bradish had an altogether tepid rookie season in 2022 (4.90 ERA through 23 starts) but impressed as the season came to a close with a 3.28 ERA. While his 4.01 xFIP was stable throughout the season, his mediocre fastball (.412 wOBA on the pitch in 2022) had a usage decrease from 55% at the start of the season to 30.3% by the end of the 2022 season.
That pitch mix change intensified in 2023, as Bradish dropped his fastball usage to 16.5% in September 2023. The decision to make his elite slider (171 Stuff+ grade) the primary pitch worked wonders this season, with a 2.83 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, and 1.04 WHIP propelling him to a fourth-place finish for the AL Cy Young Award.
While Bradish wasn’t a surefire breakout going into the season, it’s not a bad idea to put stock in pitchers who showed legitimate improvement to close this season.
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
While not many eyes were on the Kansas City Royals this season, mid-season acquisition Cole Ragans put the league on notice in the second half of the 2023 season. In his 12 starts with Kansas City, Ragans held a 2.64 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, and a 31.1% strikeout rate.
The 25-year-old’s breakout season came out of nowhere to most. Coming off a 4.95 ERA through nine starts in his rookie season, the Texas Rangers sentenced Ragans to the bullpen. He struggled immensely as a reliever, with a 5.92 ERA through 17 appearances.
Acquired by Kansas City in the Aroldis Chapman trade, Ragans immediately got to work as a starter with the Royals. After work with the Royals pitching lab, Ragans added a lights-out slider to his arsenal. The slider quickly became one of his most effective pitches, garnering a 40.6% whiff rate with a 4.4 run value per nine innings on the pitch.
Hitting on under-the-radar players is like winning the lottery, but a change of scenery with high-talent arms is a factor that should improve your chances.
Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves
While his precipitous second-half fall may be fresh on your mind at season's end, Bryce Elder's incredible first half warrants placement.
The 24-year-old was considered an NL Cy Young award contender for much of the first half after winning seven games with a 2.45 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 17 starts. But of course, the 2023 All-Star was sent back to Earth in the second half with a 5.75 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.7% strikeout-to-walk-percentage ratio in his final 14 starts.
Regressions like Elder’s don’t happen out of nowhere; the warning signs were visible from the start of the season. The sophomore pitcher had his fair share of luck in the first half, with a mediocre 4.02 xFIP and 84.1% left-on-base rate through 17 starts lying under that pristine 2.45 ERA.
MLB hitters also expectedly adjusted to his already underwhelming stuff (80 Stuff+ grade on the season), exemplified by the xBA on his slider rising from .151 in June to .342 in July. His groundball rate also plummeted, decreasing by 10.5 points in his final 14 starts compared to his first 17.
It would've been difficult to sell high on Elder early in the season, but erring on the side of caution with breakout players like him will save you a lot of pain.
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