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Heading into each fantasy season, there are expectations and projections about how a certain player will perform. Unfortunately, a breakout season one year may not translate to success in the following one. That’s just the way it is in the NFL.
In 2020, there were multiple players who regressed during the campaign statistically, including at the tight end position.
Though tight end is a top-heavy position in fantasy, there are certainly some hidden gems. Unfortunately, a few well-performing tight ends from seasons past didn’t do so well in 2020. Let’s break it down and look at the three biggest busts from this past season.
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Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
Last offseason, former Falcon Austin Hooper joined the Browns on a tremendous four-year, $44 million-dollar deal with $23 million guaranteed. Hooper was expected to be an impact addition for Cleveland, but things didn’t pan out that way.
Overall, he finished with 46 receptions for 435 yards and four scores on 70 targets, which is not bad, but not all that great either. In fact, Hooper recorded his lowest reception and yard total since his rookie season in 2016.
This was a disappointing finish especially considering that the TE had a breakout year in 2019 during his last season with Atlanta where he compiled 75 receptions for 787 yards and six scores on 97 targets, all career-highs.
Hooper went from a seventh-place finish among fantasy tight ends in 2019 to 22nd in 2020 and this is also considering he played 13 games in both campaigns. He also ranked 22nd in reception yards per game, 17th in receptions, and 22nd in receiving yards among tight ends in 2020.
The Browns did emerge as a solid team in 2020 and not the same old Browns many of us have always known, so Hooper does have a chance to put up better numbers next season as he would now be more comfortable in this offense and with Baker Mayfield. Hooper is a solid bounce-back candidate and should hold TE2 fantasy value heading into 2021 drafts.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
In recent seasons, Ertz has been regarded as one of the top fantasy tight ends and that was for good reason. The Eagle had at least 74 receptions, 106 targets, and 816 yards in the five seasons prior to 2020. In 2020, things came crashing down as the TE only recorded 36 receptions for 335 yards and one touchdown on 72 targets in 11 games.
What was the cause of the regression for someone who had been a solid fantasy TE1 the past few seasons? Well, for one, the TE dealt with an ankle injury and missed five games. In addition, Dallas Goedert emerged as a viable option at TE for Philly too. The South Dakota State product finished with 46 receptions for 524 yards and three scores on 65 targets in 11 games as well.
Ertz was the biggest bust at TE in 2020; he went from finishing fifth among fantasy tight ends in 2019 to plummeting all the way to 35 in 2020. Again, injury played a factor in this, but Ertz only played a few games less this season than he did in those other successful ones and his numbers were among the worst he's had in his eight-year career.
The 30-year-old finished behind guys like Anthony Firkser, Mo Alie-Cox, and Dan Arnold in fantasy this season, guys who many may not even know.
In addition, Ertz ranked 23rd in reception yards per game, 17th in receptions per game, 26th in receptions, and 31st in reception yards among NFL TEs this past season. This is a huge drop. Overall, Ertz was among the most disappointing fantasy players this season based on how much value he had going into 2020. This is also considering he finished 10th among fantasy tight ends in 2015, eighth in 2016, third in 2017 and 2018, and fifth in 2019. He was a top-10 fantasy tight end for five consecutive seasons.
Ertz’s future with Philly is up in the air and trade rumors have been surrounding the TE for quite a bit of time now. It remains to be seen how his fantasy value will be heading into 2021 drafts as it does depend on who he will suit up for next season.
Even if he returns to Philly, his value would be much lower considering the season he’s coming off and the fact that Dallas Goedert is now someone who’s experienced and will cut into Ertz’s production and targets.
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
Doyle has never been an elite fantasy option, but he did put up respectable numbers in 2019. This was enough to make him a somewhat decent draft pick at TE in fantasy for 2020, but the player flailed this past season instead.
In 2019, Doyle had 43 receptions for 448 yards and four scores on 72 targets. In 2020, his numbers plummeted as he finished with 23 receptions for 251 yards and three scores on 33 targets with the only difference being he played in two fewer games in 2020. Still, the production dropped for the TE and this could be directly tied to the presence of TEs Mo Alie-Cox and Trey Burton cutting into playing time and targets.
Overall, Doyle dropped from finishing 18th among fantasy tight ends in 2019 to 36th in 2020. For someone who was supposed to hold TE2 value in 2020, Doyle fell well short of expectations.
He did sign a three-year contract extension at the end of the 2019 season, but his fantasy value would take a huge hit heading into 2021 if Mo Alie-Cox or Trey Burton, both 2021 free agents, return to Indy. All three TEs simply cannot sustain decent fantasy value while being on one team and the Colts would then feature no standout fantasy tight end heading into 2021 as a result.
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