X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Strikeouts Player Prop Bets Today: Best Pitcher K Props (4/2/2025)

Ryan Pepiot - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/2/2025). Bet his strikeout props (K props) for strikeouts thrown and win money betting on MLB player props.

Some of my favorite MLB player props to wager daily are pitcher strikeout props! Did you know that strikeout rates - among pitchers and hitters - are some of the most stable statistics in baseball? Sure, players will fluctuate throughout the year on a game-by-game basis and from year to year, but we usually get a pretty good sense of how strikeout percentages will look within the first four to five starts for pitchers and 150 at-bats for hitters.

If you're impatient like me, you can't wait for all that data, and you want to make some bets early in the season based on prior results and projected improvements or regression for hitters and pitchers. I'll still be grounding my picks in research, but with the caveat that there is still a high degree of variability this early in the season, with pitch counts being monitored and sample sizes remaining small.

In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop around for the best price with other books as well.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks

Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Wednesday, April 2:

 

Ryan Pepiot OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-102 FanDuel)

This is my most confident pick of the day, even if it hurts to pick on my beleaguered Pittsburgh Pirates. I was extremely high on Ryan Pepiot this season, and he did not disappoint in his first start against the Rockies, whiffing eight and needing just 85 pitches to complete six frames.

The Rockies were a great matchup for Pepiot to get going right out of the gate, as they are striking out a ton and not walking much. We can see that the books are already adjusting to the Rockies' early struggles as they have set Zack Wheeler's strikeout prop at 8.5 today, which is a bit too high for my liking, but I won't be surprised if he gets there. I'll likely be on Wheeler's walk prop instead, but this article is about strikeout props, so let's get back to Pepiot.

In his debut, the powerful righty demonstrated pinpoint control, walking just one hitter. The Pirates strike out a lot against righties (25%) but also walk quite a bit (11%). I'm not worried about walks tonight with Pepiot's command, and I think he can build off what his teammate Shane Baz did last night when he whiffed ten Pirates in a 7-0 victory.

Pepiot had an 18.8% SwStr%, and his Stuff+ graded out at 113. His fastball gets above-average IVB (induced vertical break), and if his changeup is going to be as filthy as it was last week, that combo of pitches is going to be incredibly difficult for hitters all season long.

Paul Skenes OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)

For this one, we are betting more on the pitcher than the matchup, as Tampa is surprisingly off to a very good start at the plate in terms of making contact. We should note that their current strikeout rate (15%) is likely skewed by the lack of tough matchups, as they faced the Rockies and then Pittsburgh's worst starter so far.

Paul Skenes is a beast and ready to continue his dominance of the league in year two. He posted a 35% K% and a strong 15% SwStr% in his debut, striking out seven Marlins in 5+ innings.

We need him to get eight punchouts tonight, but I think it's doable if Skenes pounds the strike zone and avoids the free passes. He had one of the best Z-Contact % of any starter going today (78.9%), which shows that he can blow pitches past hitters in the zone without getting them to chase.

His Stuff+ checked in at 120 in the opener, which was bested only by Hunter Greene's 132 on opening day. I'm banking on Skenes dominating in front of the home crowd and being the stopper for this Pirates team that has struggled early this season.

Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-155 FanDuel)

Peralta had eight strikeouts in his debut against a Yankees lineup that went on to hit a million home runs against the rest of the Brewers' rotation. Peralta has a solid history of being an elite strikeout artist, so it wasn't a surprise to see him dominate on opening day. His underlying numbers all look good and are consistent with what he's done in the past.

He was very fastball-changeup heavy in his debut, but his slider generated a 75% whiff rate when he deployed it. He's reshaped it a bit this year, and it's even registering as a curveball on Statcast because of the increased vertical break and less horizontal movement.

The Royals are a neutral matchup, but this number is too low for Peralta, who should have had his prop set at 6.5 or higher for much of the season. We have to pay some juice here, but if you head over to FanDuel, you can get a better deal than on DK.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Jeffrey Springs OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+125 DraftKings)

Jeffrey Springs is officially back; put the rest of the league on notice! Springs had a very promising start to his career as a starter with Tampa Bay before he was derailed by a major arm injury that cost him an entire season and a half. But he's getting a chance at a new life with the Athletics, who have installed him as the ace of their rotation.

Springs was phenomenal in his 2025 debut, striking out nine Mariners on his way to a 42.9% K% and a massive 19.3% K%. Despite not having an overpowering fastball, Springs was able to elicit whiffs from hitters in the zone with a 66.7% Z-Contact%.

He has elite control of all his pitches and works ahead of hitters constantly. He's pitching at home here (ballpark downgrade) against a good Cubs offense, but he has the kind of stuff to get six any time out, and we are getting him at plus odds today as the books (and bettors) don't have faith that he can do it again. He can! I think he will get there tonight, and this is my favorite odds-based play of the evening.

Jameson Taillon UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-155 FanDuel)

Staying in the same game, we have a pitcher from Chicago who struggles to generate whiffs. Taillon had a 4.5% strikeout rate in his first outing and just a 6.3% SwStr%. Those are the worst numbers of any pitcher on this slate.

And he's not going to get bailed out by the Athletics, either. This team has an underrated offense, and they are striking out just 19.2% of the time so far against RHP, despite facing some really good pitchers in the Seattle series. Taillon is an easy under tonight, but again, look for better odds on FanDuel; the juice is extremely high on DK.

Clay Holmes OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)

Holmes was a bit of a disappointment in his Mets debut, but I am going to cut him some slack. He was facing a very tough Astros lineup and still adjusting to being a starter full-time. He did get four strikeouts in that outing, but he also walked four and was not the same pitcher that we saw look dominant in spring training.

This is a great bounce-back spot for Holmes today as he faces Miami, a team with a weak lineup that doesn't walk much and has a high K%. The Marlins are striking out 27% of the time against RHP, and we saw Kodai Senga have his way with them last night.

Holmes's stuff may not quite be on Senga's level, but I firmly believe he will be a 22-24% strikeout pitcher this season when the dust settles. The over is juiced in a big way, but for good reason, as the matchup for Holmes is as good as it gets, and bettors are anxious to attack those 4.5 numbers with decent pitchers any chance they get.

Garrett Crochet OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+125 FanDuel)

One final bounceback spot tonight that I am targeting is Garrett Crochet against the Baltimore Orioles. Crochet put up only four strikeouts in his Boston debut against Texas, but there are some reasons to believe that he pitched better than the box score showed.

He still finished with a 15.9% SwStr% and 75.7% Z-Contact%. Those rates are excellent and in line with the dominant pitching we saw from Crochet last season. He was able to throw 88 pitches, so he could be allowed to go for 90+ today in this one, and Baltimore is a matchup he could exploit as they will send eight righties up to the plate to face him.

Last season, Crochet destroyed lefties but was still very good against righties with a 33.8% K% on the season. Getting up to eight is not easy for any pitcher, but let's not forget we are talking about one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers we saw in the league last season. We are getting great odds here, and I'm willing to take a shot on Crochet putting up a big number in his second start of the season.

Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaren Jackson Jr.13 mins ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Triston Casas23 mins ago

Connects On Second Round-Tripper
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander24 mins ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman28 mins ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam32 mins ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo37 mins ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Josh Smith38 mins ago

Stays Hot With Second Home Run
Lee Hodges39 mins ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA43 mins ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle44 mins ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland45 mins ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Brent Rooker51 mins ago

Pops Seventh Homer
Luka Dončić52 mins ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy55 mins ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard57 mins ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale1 hour ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens1 hour ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate1 hour ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard1 hour ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares1 hour ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout1 hour ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen1 hour ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia1 hour ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young2 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov2 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk2 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen2 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Jett Williams2 hours ago

Tallies Three Hits, Swipes Two Bags
Anthony Cirelli2 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi2 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
Deyvison De Los Santos2 hours ago

Posts Four-Hit Game
Christian Yelich2 hours ago

Grand Slam Fuels Brewers' Blowout Victory
John Klingberg2 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Ian Seymour2 hours ago

Strikes Out Nine Across Five Innings
Evander Kane2 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Jacob Misiorowski2 hours ago

Strikes Out Eight In Latest Triple-A Start
Jack Leiter2 hours ago

Sharp In Rehab Outing On Tuesday
Agustín Ramírez3 hours ago

Agustin Ramirez Hits Two Doubles On Tuesday
Marcus Semien3 hours ago

Snaps Power Skid
Bryan Reynolds3 hours ago

Busy In Tuesday's Victory
Brandon Pfaadt3 hours ago

Sharp In Tuesday's Victory
Kyle Tucker3 hours ago

Tallies Three Hits, Launches Home Run No. 7
Kris Bubic3 hours ago

Tosses Seven Shutout Innings In No-Decision
Aaron Judge3 hours ago

Tallies Four Hits On Tuesday
Corey Seager10 hours ago

Leaves Early On Tuesday With Hamstring Tightness
George Klassen10 hours ago

Strikes Out Nine In Latest Double-A Start
Michael Pittman Jr.10 hours ago

Back Injury Is In The Past
Marcelo Mayer10 hours ago

With Fourth Straight Multi-Hit Effort On Tuesday
Bailey Falter10 hours ago

Leaves Outing On Tuesday With Back Tightness
George Pickens10 hours ago

Steelers Appear Unlikely To Trade George Pickens
Jaylen Warren10 hours ago

Steelers Believe Jaylen Warren Can Be Their RB1
Leodalis De Vries10 hours ago

Hits For Cycle, Collects Eight RBI On Tuesday
Andrew Novak11 hours ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin12 hours ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore13 hours ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark13 hours ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama13 hours ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa14 hours ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Jaylen Warren14 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Steelers
Will Levis15 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Traded
Houston Texans15 hours ago

Texans Considering Trading Up
Cleveland Browns16 hours ago

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Appears At Offseason Program
Thomas Detry16 hours ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Christian McCaffrey16 hours ago

Has No Restrictions
Terry Rozier16 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard16 hours ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum16 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Robert MacIntyre16 hours ago

Returns To Zurich Classic With High Hopes
Derek Forbort16 hours ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry16 hours ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Shane Lowry16 hours ago

Returning To Zurich Classic With Red-Hot Teammate
Luke Glendening16 hours ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee17 hours ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass17 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon17 hours ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Luke Hughes17 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Matthew Tkachuk17 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Damian Lillard18 hours ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Brock Purdy19 hours ago

Reports For OTA's Amid Contract Discussions
George Kittle19 hours ago

Skips Start Of 49ers Offseason Program
Dallas Cowboys19 hours ago

Stephon Gilmore Spotted At Cowboys Facility On Tuesday
James Cook19 hours ago

Not At Start Of Voluntary OTAs
Kirk Cousins19 hours ago

Reports To Voluntary OTA's
Cam Ward19 hours ago

Titans Officially Staying Put At No. 1 Overall Pick, Expected To Select Cam Ward
20 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty's Tackle-Breaking Ability Sets Him Apart
20 hours ago

Jalen Milroe Not A Lock To Go In First Round
Denver Broncos21 hours ago

Broncos Willing To Trade Up In This Week's Draft
Indianapolis Colts21 hours ago

Colts Searching For A Tight End That Can Do It All
Daniel Jones21 hours ago

Colts Expect Both Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Help Them In 2025
21 hours ago

Giants High On Jaxson Dart
21 hours ago

Saints Not Expected To Take Shedeur Sanders
Nikola Jokić1 day ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
Kawhi Leonard1 day ago

Leads Clippers To Game 2 Victory
Jalen Brunson1 day ago

Leads All Scorers With 37 Points In Monday's Loss
Tobias Harris1 day ago

Notches Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Cade Cunningham1 day ago

Leads Pistons To Victory With 33 Points
Rob Dillingham1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Maxi Kleber1 day ago

Remains Out For Game 2
GG Jackson II1 day ago

Available For Tuesday
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Dishes Out Three Assists In Postseason Opener
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Racks Up Four Points In Losing Effort
Phillip Danault1 day ago

Nets Two Goals In Game 1 Victory
Mark Scheifele1 day ago

Bags Two Points In Monday's Win
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Posts Two Assists In Playoff Debut
Aaron Gordon2 days ago

Cleared For Action
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF