MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/11/2025)

Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/11/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Kyle Stowers, Elly De La Cruz, Ketel Marte, Wyatt Langford, and Bo Bichette.

On this final Friday before the All-Star break, Major League Baseball has all 30 teams on the schedule under the lights, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. The White Sox and Guardians have a doubleheader on tap after a washout on Thursday, providing baseball fans an over-stuffed slate of 16 games in play. Some rain is still in the forecast for Chicago as well as Detroit, Minnesota, and Kansas City, so be sure to check the latest forecast before locking in your home run props for this Friday.

With so many teams in action, there is no shortage of strong home run props to consider. Park factor, game environment, matchup, and current form are all factors to consider when choosing home run props. Batted ball metrics and lefty-righty splits can also help us find the players in the best spots to smash. Another critical factor to consider is the odds themselves, since playing volatile outcomes like home runs at short odds can quickly burn through your bankroll without replenishing it enough when the picks do hit.

Below, you'll read about five of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, July 11, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile. You can also combine these props with other picks into SGP or round robin plays that provide even more potential upside. I typically play a small unit size on home run props, but round robins and SGP create the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one player prop hits.

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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/11/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, July 11:

• Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
• Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
• Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
• Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays

Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DK)

Stowers will face the team that traded him this weekend at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which has been one of the most homer-friendly ballparks this season. The 27-year-old lefty has shown off plenty of pop this season in Miami and is a great place to start our home run props for Friday night's busy slate.

He'll get a great matchup against Dean Kremer, who has allowed 14 home runs in his 18 games this season with a 1.24 HR/9 to go with his 4.53 ERA and 4.08 FIP. Left-handed hitters like Stowers have hit nine of those 14 homers, including two of the four he has allowed in his last four starts.

Stowers will be facing his former team for the first time since they traded him last year at the trade deadline as part of the Trevor Rogers deal. In his first full season in Miami, Stowers has 16 homers, including six in his last 15 starts.

Kyle Stowers sends this baseball 440 feet 😳 pic.twitter.com/IurB8ETFss

— MLB (@MLB) June 26, 2025

He has a 58.3% hard-hit rate and 27.8% barrel rate in his last 17 games, and the revenge narrative adds a juicy storyline on top of the trends in his direction for this Friday. The young lefty didn't start the last two games against lefties, but he should be back in the lineup in a smash spot against Kremer.

Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DK)

De La Cruz hasn't homered in his last 15 games, but he's in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park in a favorable matchup against the Rockies.

He only had a 32.4% hard-hit rate during the first 11 games of his homerless spell, but he had a 66.7% hard-hit rate in his last four games with an average exit velocity of 94.5 miles per hour. The fact that he is "overdue" actually keeps his odds relatively high for such a juicy matchup on Friday.

On Friday, Elly will face German Marquez and the struggling Rockies in the first game of their three-game set. Marquez has allowed 11 homers in 18 starts while going 3-10 with a 5.84 ERA and 4.38 FIP. Before you adjust for Coors Field inflation, it's important to note that he has a 6.48 ERA and 4.21 FIP on the road.

Lefties have hit eight of the 11 homers off of Marquez this season and have a .382 wOBA. The switch-hitting De La Cruz is hitting .300 this season against righties with a .391 wOBA and 13 of his 18 homers on that side of the split.

Even though he declined a spot in the Home Run Derby, he's headed to the All-Star game, and I think he's set up well to put on a show against Marquez and the shaky Rockies pitching staff this weekend before heading to Atlanta.

That's 2x All-Star, Elly De La Cruz ⚡️

Congrats, @ellylacocoa18‼️ pic.twitter.com/rkxg97H3J1

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 6, 2025

Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+215 DK)

Ketel Marte is chalkier than the rest of my home run props for this Friday, but he is in such a good spot that he's still worth playing even at shorter odds. The switch-hitting second baseman has seven homers in his last 18 games, as he and the Diamondbacks head to Anaheim to face the Angels in their final series before the All-Star break.

Marte will face a familiar foe in starting pitcher Tyler Anderson, and Marte has gone 13-for-30 (.433) against the lefty in their past meetings with eight extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs. Marte has also hit over half his homers on the road, where he has a .331 batting average and .464 wOBA this year.

Anderson is just 2-6 in his 18 starts for the Angels this season with a 9.2% barrel rate against him. All that good contact has given him a 4.19 ERA and 4.84 FIP in his 96 2/3 innings. Righties have hit nine of the 16 homers he has allowed with a .297 wOBA against him.

On the season, Marte has a 45.2% hard-hit rate with a 16.6% barrel rate, and he has at least one hard hit of 99+ miles per hour in 12 of his last 15 games.

Ketel Marte crushes his 17th home run of the year!

He's homered in 5 of his last 9 games 💪 pic.twitter.com/QQGaax8gac

— MLB (@MLB) June 29, 2025

He didn't homer in San Diego to start the week, but he's in a good matchup against Anderson on Friday.

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Wyatt Langford OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DK)

Everything is bigger in Texas, so it's no surprise that the longest odds in my home run props for the day come from this Lone Star State rivalry between the Rangers and Astros. Langford recently returned from a quick stint on the injured list with an oblique injury, but he gets a good spot at Daikin Park against Lance McCullers Jr.

Langford has looked strong since returning, going 6-for-21 (.286) with two stolen bases, a double, and this home run:

Wyatt Langford - Texas Rangers (14)
pic.twitter.com/FqnOjGU0jI

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) July 9, 2025

The Crawford Boxes could be beckoning to Langford on Friday night against McCullers, who has given up nine homers in his eight starts across just 38 2/3 innings. Over half of those homers have been hit by right-handed hitters, who have hit .303 against McCullers on the season with a .434 wOBA in the split.

Langford has 14 homers, a 47.0% hard-hit rate, and a 12.5% barrel rate on the season, but his trips to the injured list have kept him a little off the radar. He brings very favorable odds to this matchup in Houston on Friday and is worth a long-shot play as a result.

Bo Bichette OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DK)

For the last of my handful of home run props this Friday night, let's head to the best environment on the slate for home runs and take a stop in Sacramento. Sutter Health Park has been outstanding for offense as the temporary home of the Athletics, and the weather is forecast to be clear, hot, and with the wind blowing out this Friday night. There should be plenty of fireworks, especially as the red-hot Blue Jays come to town.

Toronto has surged to the top of the AL East by winning 12 of their last 14 games, and one of the key contributors during that stretch has been Bo Bichette, who has hit .321 with a .381 wOBA and four homers over his last 19 contests. He has moved out of the leadoff spot since missing a few games with knee discomfort, but he has kept right on mashing.

Bo Bichette ties the game with a solo shot 💥 pic.twitter.com/ITewUjKoFS

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) July 6, 2025

Bichette and the Blue Jays get a great matchup against Luis Severino in this beautiful home run environment on Friday. Severino has allowed 12 homers in 19 starts this season while going 2-10 with a 5.30 ERA, but he has struggled even more at Sutter Health Park. At home, Severino has a 7.04 ERA and 1.17 HR/9. At home against righties, that number jumps to a 1.44 HR/9, and right-handed hitters like Bichette have a .328 batting average and .384 wOBA against him in Sacramento.

Bichette has gone 3-for-9 with a double and two walks against Severino in the past, and he also has good reverse splits on the season with a .284 batting average, nine homers, and a .334 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. In the final year of his current contract, Bichette had put up good home run numbers overall, and in such a great matchup and environment, I'm pumped to still get him at over +300 in Friday's home run props.

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