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Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/21/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Cody Bellinger, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Max Muncy.
All 30 teams are on the schedule this Saturday with games starting from 12:10 p.m. ET in Tampa through a 10:10 p.m. ET start in Los Angeles. It looks lined up to be a great day for home runs with plenty of opportunities that showcase favorable hitter matchups, homer-friendly ballparks, and warm weather that helps the ball carry.
For this Saturday, I'll run down my four favorite home run bets on the slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which raises the ceiling of the return if more than one hitter goes yard. I usually put just a small unit size on home run props, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, June 21, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/21/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, June 21:
- Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks
- Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Cody Bellinger Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bellinger and the Yankees face the Orioles this Saturday after losing the first game of the series on Friday, giving them seven losses in their last eight games. The Rays have closed to just 1.5 games back in the AL East with the Blue Jays and Red Sox just behind. Bellinger got Friday night off, but he'll likely return to the lineup on Saturday afternoon to try and help the Yankees get back in the win column.
Bellinger will have a favorable matchup against Zach Eflin. Eflin has served up 12 homers in his 10 starts this season, spanning 58 innings. Opponents have a 40.3% hard-hit rate and 8.4% barrel rate against him this season, and a .275 batting average.
Lefties like Bellinger have hit him especially well, posting a .406 wOBA with 10 of his 12 home runs allowed. Bellinger has a good history in this specific matchup as well, going 5-for-16 (.313) against Eflin in the past, including two dingers.
The 29-year-old lefty has hit 10 homers in his first season with the Yankees, and eight of those have come at Yankee Stadium, where Saturday afternoon's matchup will be. He had a home run on Wednesday against the Angels and a three-hit game on Thursday. Over his last 13 games, he's hitting a solid .283 with a .343 wOBA, two homers, and a 39.6% hard-hit rate.
He'll look to take advantage of the short porch in right field, like he did on Wednesday:
Cody Bellinger gives the @Yankees the lead with home run No. 10 🤩 pic.twitter.com/2QGVBlHAh7
— MLB (@MLB) June 19, 2025
Bellinger hasn't been quite the slugger the Yankees hoped for when they added him this past offseason, but in this matchup, I think he has a good shot to go yard in the Bronx on Saturday.
Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DraftKings Sportsbook)
There are a couple of extremely favorable spots that are too good to overlook, even though the odds have been shortened to compensate for the homer-friendly environment.
The first home run spot to lean into is at Wrigley Field in Chicago, where the wind is forecast to be blowing out at 25 miles per hour with temps in the mid-90s and plenty of humidity. It should be a smash spot for home runs for both teams, but my favorite play is Crow-Armstrong, who is having a remarkable breakout season.
PCA has 20 homers already this year to go with 23 stolen bases, a .270 batting average, and a .369 wOBA. He has an impressive 14.4% barrel rate with a 43.5% hard-hit rate. Of those 20 long-balls, 15 have come against right-handed pitching, but only eight have come at home. He homered on Wednesday and Thursday of this week against the Brewers but went 0-for-4 in the first game of the Cubs' series against Seattle.
Pete Crow-Armstrong HAMMERS his 20th homer of the season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ti9yhCF5R2
— MLB (@MLB) June 19, 2025
On Saturday afternoon, Crow-Armstrong will face Emerson Hancock, who has given up 10 home runs in 12 starts this season. Even though he has been more effective in his last few starts, he continues to give up home runs, and in Saturday's conditions, he could struggle to keep the ball in Wrigley Field. Seven of the 10 homers he has given up this year have come to left-handed hitters like Crow-Armstrong.
With home run No. 20 on Thursday, he became the first player this season to have at least 20 homers and 20 stolen bases and is also tied for the fourth fastest ever to reach that mark, achieving the feat in 73 games. He'll look to add another homer to his total on Saturday, and with the wind blowing out, I like his potential to go yard Saturday.
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Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The other extremely homer-friendly environment on the board this Saturday is at Coors Field. The elevation always boosts players' chances to hit home runs, but now that the weather is nice and warm in Denver, it becomes even more favorable with the wind blowing out. Saturday's forecast calls for temps in the 90s and winds blowing out to right field (although not as hard as Friday).
The Diamondbacks also have a great matchup against lefty Carson Palmquist, who has been overmatched since his promotion from Triple-A. Palmquist has given up 24 runs in his 26 2/3 innings in the majors, allowing a 39.1% hard-hit rate with a scary 14.1% barrel rate. In six starts, he has surrendered seven home runs, including three in his two starts at Coors Field, where opponents have a .497 wOBA against him.
The Dbacks enjoyed the hitter-friendly conditions on Friday night and racked up 14 runs on 21 hits, including three home runs. They'll look to continue crushing against Palmquist, and several Snakes make sense as home run targets. The one who has my attention is Gurriel, since he still comes at relatively favorable odds for a player in such a good spot.
Gurriel has 10 homers on the year, with a .303 batting average and .353 wOBA in his splits against lefties. Only three of his 10 homers have come against southpaws this season, but his home run rate for his career is higher against lefties than righties. He has a pair of homers in his last 14 games, with his most recent against the Mariners just over a week ago.
¡Piña power! 🍍 Jonrón de Lourdes Gurriel Jr. pic.twitter.com/W2FZYeAiQo
— MLB Español (@mlbespanol) June 11, 2025
While he doesn't have the shortest odds of the Dbacks, he brings a nice balance of value and risk. He didn't homer on Friday, but in his career, he has five homers against the Rockies.
Max Muncy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Muncy and the Dodgers wrap up the massive baseball schedule for the day with a favorable home matchup against the Nationals and Jake Irvin. Muncy was not in the starting nine on Friday against lefty MacKenzie Gore, but he'll likely get the call on Saturday night against the righty Irvin.
Muncy's overall numbers on the season are not all that inspiring since he's hitting just .241 with nine homers and a .350 wOBA, but those numbers don't reflect how hot he has been lately after a slow start. All nine of his home runs have come since April 30, and his wOBA has jumped to .409 since then, with a 53.6% hard-hit rate and a 13.6% barrel rate. Why the sudden shift? Being able to see the baseball is important to hitting it--who knew?
Glasses Max Muncy is different. https://t.co/f31Am9GxA0 pic.twitter.com/04htlftXBi
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 20, 2025
Five of his nine home runs have come in his last 18 games, and he is hitting .333 over that span with a 50% hard-hit rate and 17.4% barrel rate. His average exit velocity of 92.3 miles per hour over that stretch is outstanding, and he has at least one hard-hit batted ball event in 11 of his last 12 starts.
He hasn't homered in his last 14 games, but he has still been hitting the ball extremely well, and I think he can get back on the home run board this Saturday.
Eight of Muncy's nine homers this season have come at home, where he'll have a great matchup against Irvin on Saturday night. Irvin has surrendered 14 homers in his 15 starts this season, including four in his last three outings. He has given up 10 barrels in those three starts, and opponents have an 18.5% barrel rate and 46.3% hard-hit rate in those three outings.
Left-handed hitters like Muncy have hit 10 of the 14 homers he has allowed this season and have a healthy .354 wOBA. While Muncy isn't as likely to go yard off Irvin as Shohei Ohtani, he also brings much more favorable odds. I think the 34-year-old veteran will get a hold of one on Saturday night and deliver a win for this prop.
Thanks for checking out my home run props today at RotoBaller, good luck if you are tailing any or all of these bets!
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