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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/29/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We have a massive slate of games with all 30 teams in action today. We have some good hitting ballparks and environments with weather that make this an elite slate for hunting home runs. We will focus on park factor, weather, and matchups against pitchers, including handiness, pitch mix, and arm angle.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our five hitters to go yard.
Read on to find my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. The odds are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, April 29:
- Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
- Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins
- Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
- Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Our first two targets will come from the same game, and if you read this article, the following paragraph will sound very familiar. The unfortunate part is that last time, this game got cancelled. Let’s hope this one plays. Regardless of the next section, I want to note that I fully love these next two bets. I still want to attack these spots if the wind changes throughout the day.
Tonight, Progressive Field is supposed to experience 15 mph winds blowing out to right field with a slight crosswind. Some may wonder why this is such a significant advantage, but the stadium is very receptive to winds in that direction due to its open concourses. On days like this, it creates a wind tunnel to right field.
Over next three years the #Guardians plan to more renovations to Progressive Field including (finally) upgrading right field upper deck into better social spaces.
h/t @ScottSabolFOX8 pic.twitter.com/xkotSsX9AL
— MLB Cathedrals (@MLBcathedrals) January 13, 2023
Paddack has been receptive to the long ball this season. He has a 2.01 HR/9 and a 44.1% FB. Over his last two starts, he has a 1.80 HR/9 and a 40.7% FB. He has identical numbers with power, FB%, and HR/9 to both sides of the plate, so I am targeting the best hitters regardless of handiness.
The top bat for the Guardians in this matchup is Jose Ramirez. Since 2024, Jose has had a .335 wOBA and a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching. He has also had a .460 wOBA and a .211 ISO in 160 pitches against right-handed pitchers with the same arm angle as Paddack. Jose has hit four of his five home runs against right-handed pitching this season, and he has pulled all of them.
Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Trevor Larnach is my next home run bet of the night. He is in the same hitting environment as Jose Ramirez. Larnach is a big-time pull hitter, which will help in this ballpark and weather. All four of his home runs in 2025 have been pulled.
If you have been a consistent reader of this article, you know we have been attacking Tanner Bibee with home runs every time he pitches. In 2025 Bibee has a 5.01 xFIP, 2.77 HR.9 and a 43.4% FB. He has a 3.09 HR/9, 41.9% FB, and a 95.7% Z-Contact over his last two starts. Lefties have a 3.6 HR/9, 48.6% FB, and a 31.4% Hard Hit this season. He has a 42.9% Pull% against lefties, which plays right into Larnach’s hands.
Larnach has been elite against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .352 wOBA and a .192 ISO against the split this season. In his last 20 plate appearances, he has a .602 wOBA, .635 ISO, and three home runs against the split. Larnach also hits Bibee's arm angle well. He has a .337 wOBA, .325 ISO, and four home runs in 160 pitches. I love parlaying these two for a risk-free bet on DraftKings.
Another angle for bets here is a "Yes, First Run Inning" wager that either Cleveland or Minnesota will score at least a run in the first frame. I know Thunder Dan is on that bet today, and you can check out all his NRFI/YRFI bets here.
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Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chourio is not only my top home run bet tonight, but he is also my top DFS play. He has been incredible against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .319 wOBA, .221 ISO, 42.4% FB, and a 25.6% Hard Hit. He has four home runs against the split this season. Over his last 19 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he has a .424 wOBA, .278 ISO, and a 41.7% Hard Hit.
Jackson Chourio hits this one WAY outta here 🤯 pic.twitter.com/IaHvhqjbvM
— MLB (@MLB) April 13, 2025
The main attraction here is the matchup with Bryse Wilson. Wilson has a 5.02 xFIP, 2.45 HR/9, 40.0% FB, and a 92.3% Z-Contact. Over his last two appearances, he has a 2.70 HR/9, 46.2% Hard Hit, and a 96.8% Z-Contact. Wilson has a 3.2 HR/9, 39.3% FB, and a 42.9 % Hard hit against right-hand pitching this season.
The numbers above don’t get much worse than that for Wilson. The matchup is as good as it can be for Chourio, although the park and weather are below average. Lastly, Chourio has a .473 wOBA, .411 ISO, and five home runs against 222 pitches against the same arm angle as Wilson. The young star may lead this game off with a home run.
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)
For our fourth bet of the night, we head back to a great hitting environment with a trip to Coors Field. It will be a bit cold, but it is still Coors, and the elevation does the trick no matter the temperature. Matt Olson will get an elite matchup with righty German Marquez.
Over his last two starts, Marquez has been atrocious. He has a 3.86 HR/9, 47.8% FB, and a 91.7% Z-Contact. Left-hand hitters have crushed him this season. Lefties have a 6.72 xFIP, 1.9 HR/9, 54.3% FB, and a 28.6% Hard Hit. I do like right-hand bats a bit more in this park, but the matchup is too hard to ignore for lefties.
Enter Matt Olson. Olson is off to a much better start in 2025. He has a .327 wOBA, .177 ISO, 33.3% FB, and a 39.7% Hard Hit against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .448 wOBA, .269 ISO, and four home runs against right-hand pitchers with the same arm angle as Marquez. Olson leaves the yard tonight.
Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Last but certainly not least is old reliable Cal Raleigh. Raleigh is off to a blistering hot start, with ten home runs already on the season. He has hit seven of those against right-handed pitching, and tonight, he will square off against one of the worst right-handed starters in the big leagues.
The ballpark here in Seattle is among some of the worst for the long ball, but the matchup with Jack Kochanowicz is too hard to ignore. Kochanowicz has a 4.90 xFIP, 1.71 HR/9, 35.2% FB and a 92.6% Z-Contact. Over his last two starts, he has a 1.69 HR/9, 35.0% FB, and a 93.8% Z-Contact.
Lefties will be our focus here, as Kochanowicz has struggled against the split this season, posting a 4.56 xFIP, 2.7 HR/9, 38.3% FB, and a 40.4% Hard Hit in 2025. There are two lefties in this lineup, Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco, who profiled well here. I will most likely end up betting on both tonight.
Raleigh, as mentioned above, is red hot in 2025. He has a .413 wOBA, .356 ISO, 59.6% FB, and a 42.3% Hard Hit against right-hand pitching. He has a .382 wOBA, .294 ISO, 66.7% FB, and a 50.0% Hard Hit over his last 20 plate appearances. It is worth noting that Polanco has four home runs during this same span.
Cal Raleigh with his first 10+ HR month of his career. pic.twitter.com/NMYXW0O40T
— Gary Hill Jr. (@GaryHillJr) April 27, 2025
The biggest separator between the two for me was the deeper analytic research into the pitch mix and arm angle against them. Cal Raleigh profiles much better against arms with similar arm angles to Kochanowicz. He has a .375 wOBA, .250 ISO, and three home runs. Raleigh will bring us home on a high note tonight.
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