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Running back is the most important position in fantasy football, and it can be frustrating to have backs that are inconsistent or underperform throughout the season. It doesn't feel good to see backs like Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley seemingly dominate every game.
But the playoffs present an interesting scenario -- they're just three games long in most leagues, and the small sample size leads some players to have a grouping of extremely easy matchups. The playoffs are the most important time of the year for fantasy teams, so these games have outsized importance.
Let's dive into three RBs with the best matchups with opposing defenses in Weeks 15-17 of the season.
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Breece Hall, New York Jets
New York Jets running back Breece Hall will face two bottom-3 defenses at stopping running backs in Weeks 15 and 17. The Jacksonville Jaguars, his Week 15 foe, are one of the worst all-around defenses, and Hall's involvement in both the passing and running game makes him a possible explosion candidate for that week.
Breece Hall baby ⚡
Breece is up to 105 total yards & 2 TDs#Jets | 🎥 @nyjets pic.twitter.com/LGL2nTblvp
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) November 17, 2024
It's been an odd season for Hall. The Jets offense has been horrific, and he's had a few bust games. But he scored 31.1 PPR fantasy points last week against the Indianapolis Colts. In the right matchups, he generally plays very well. But sometimes, his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, strangely refuses to throw him the ball much.
The Jets offense usually doesn't work well unless Hall is the focal point, but Rodgers loves throwing it to his receivers and trying to push the ball down the field. The state of the offensive line makes this tough to do, yet he continues. The OL also has struggled with run-blocking, capping No. 20's rushing upside.
But the third-year pro is still the No. 10 RB on the season, and his upside remains very high. "ARod" would be smart to dump it off to him five or more times per game, too. If he knows what's good for him, that's what he'll do.
Breece Hall. RB1.
pic.twitter.com/bl1UGf5hLa— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 15, 2024
Also, it's been strange not to see BH lined up as a receiver more. The team has WRs Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams commanding plenty of targets, but Hall is a legitimate threat lined up in the slot or out wide and should be used more as such. It's hard to say if we'll see more of this.
Still, you should trust uber-talented players against soft defenses. Their abundance of skill is usually enough to overcome the other deficiencies in their offense. Hall gets the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16, who aren't the easiest matchup, though. He may not combust in that game, but he's still a worthwhile start.
But in Weeks 15 and 17, we could see nuclear games from the Jets' star back.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
He's been a no-brainer to start all season so far, but Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner has a pillow-soft playoff schedule ahead of him. A date with the Carolina Panthers in Week 16 is sandwiched in the middle of this stretch, and they're the worst run defense in the league.
You want to watch bodies go flying... Watch Panthers run defense each week. Dudes tossed out the club all over the place.
(PS... that TE insert/seal on 3T is sneaky) pic.twitter.com/ZkEHCBvrvK
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 14, 2024
His other two matchups, against the New England Patriots in Week 15 and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17, are a bit more dubious. The return of defensive tackle Christian Barmore, the Pats' best run defender, has made a big difference. The Pats are actually not a great matchup. They've been excellent against the run in the past few games.
But the Rams have allowed 5.2 yards per rush in the past three weeks. That figure is buoyed by Barkley's massive day against them, but it shows that they have some level of vulnerability. Conner should exploit that. The Patriots' last three opponents have been solid rushing teams, so Week 17 is easily a better matchup than Week 16.
Missed Tackles Forced vs. Yards from Scrimmage per touch
[Through Week 10, via @FantasyPtsData]
- Bucky Irving and James Conner clearly the most elusive runners in the league right now
- Gibbs/Henry/Barkley are explosive play demons this year
- Greg Roman loves Gus Edwards pic.twitter.com/Y18Dy9HQYz
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 14, 2024
Also, he's been an absolute stud at forcing missed tackles. I would expect big rushing days from him in the two easy matchups. He's still a must-start in the tougher one, but expect less upside. He's had more steady involvement in the passing game in recent weeks, logging three or more targets in every game from Week 5 onward.
James Conner pic.twitter.com/Cqfw7ACuWI
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 7, 2024
He's a player that needs the ball in his hands early and often in every game. The team has seemed to recognize this. His pass-catching upside gives him a nicer, steady floor and a higher ceiling. Trust him in all three weeks and rock him in your starting lineups. You probably already were, anyway.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard has been a nice surprise for fantasy managers this season. He had an ADP of around the RB42, yet he is the RB12 through 12 weeks. He's logged double-digit PPR fantasy points in all but two of his contests this season.
Hard for me to complain about the #Panthers lack of passing yardage production when your OL and RBs doing this lol
Watch Cade Mays, Robert Hunt And Chuba Hubbard on this play. This is how you impose your will. pic.twitter.com/zjs3bNa5JH
— Unnecessary Bluntness Owner/Coach/QB (@DuncOnDemand) November 11, 2024
A simple look at the tape makes it remarkably easy to understand why this is happening. Carolina's run-blocking has been absolutely stellar this season. Their interior offensive line has shoved around opposing defenders, and the schemes head coach Dave Canales has drawn up have worked swimmingly.
It will thus likely be a cakewalk for Hubbard in the fantasy playoffs. He'll get games against the Dallas Cowboys (terrible run defense), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27th in yards per rush attempt allowed), and the Arizona Cardinals, who allow the 11th-most PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs per game this year.
The thing is, he doesn't really need easy matchups. The run-blocking is so good that he should have good days against all three of these teams, regardless. But he has an even higher ceiling, considering the weaknesses of these teams. He isn't involved in the receiving game much, though.
Chuba Hubbard has been cookin
Carolina Panthers EPA per play ranks:
Pass plays -- 30th
Non-Hubbard RB runs -- 29th
Hubbard runs -- 6th pic.twitter.com/t8IPJ8tpQf— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 7, 2024
He's a great player in his own right. But the matchup with the Cardinals should be the toughest. In their last three games, they've allowed just 3.3 yards per rush attempt. Then expect his biggest playoff games to be in Weeks 15 and 17.
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