RADIO
D/ST is probably the easiest position to get an edge with in fantasy football. Generally, there are great streaming options available throughout the playoffs, and fantasy managers are slower to react to strings of good games. In addition, injured players can make a big impact on D/ST scoring.
Teams often lose some of their best defensive players for stretches of the season, causing their D/STs to score much fewer points for a certain span. Then that D/ST gets dropped, and when the elite players return, they become a fantastic fantasy option yet again. We've seen this already with the Dallas Cowboys defense -- the return of defensive end Micah Parsons has been massive for them, clearly.
So, let's break down three fantasy defenses with great playoff schedules. We'll focus on defenses with upside (i.e., not the Jacksonville Jaguars, because they're awful. Please don't pick them up; it's a terrible idea).
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Buffalo Bills D/ST
It's worth noting that BUF will finally get linebacker Matt Milano back. He'll be a huge uplifting force for their team -- he's their best linebacker and should help shore up what's been a weak run defense.
Week 15 is not a good matchup for the Buffalo Bills, unfortunately. They'll face the Detroit Lions. Buffalo prefers to funnel opposing offenses into the run game, and that plays directly into Detroit's biggest strength. Their elite offensive line and duo of RBs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, have imposed their will on opposing defenses this season.
JAHMYR GIBBS GOES 70 YARDS TO THE HOUSE 💨
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/E0kw4DLrx2
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 27, 2024
You should probably look for other options that week. But let's focus on Weeks 16 and 17 when the Bills will have the privilege of facing the New England Patriots and the New York Jets. For starters, New England has the worst offensive line in the league, and it's not even close. They've been dominated in the trenches all season.
Announcer: “The offensive line should look good against Washington backups.”
The Patriots the very next play: 👇 pic.twitter.com/HQZMLVFJkU
— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) August 26, 2024
It's been horrendously, hideously, and disastrously bad. Both of New England's top-2 quarterbacks, Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye, have been under constant duress and regularly get blasted by opposing defensive players for sacks. Expect Buffalo's pass-rushers to beat Maye up.
The Bills have been elite against receivers as well, and the Pats lack a true No. 1 option, instead spreading the ball around to a bunch of mediocre options. WR DeMario Douglas is a solid slot player, but he's not played much on the outside, and clearly hasn't been an alpha receiver.
Things won't get any harder when Buffalo gets a chance to dominate the floundering Jets offense in Week 17. With Milano back, they should easily exceed the seven fantasy points they scored in their last matchup with New York. NYJ running back Breece Hall had a big game against them the first time around.
Breece Hall and the BIG PLAY! 😤
📺 Watch Bills vs Jets on NFL Game Pass on DAZN
— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) October 15, 2024
The state of the Jets offense is awful, though. They now score the sixth-least points per game of all teams in the NFL. They've been soundly shut down by most of the defenses they've faced. The offensive line has played terribly, as has quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Wide receivers Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson have mostly disappointed throughout the season.
The biggest problem has been the line, and Rodgers' unwillingness to adjust to poor pass-blocking. He still wants to drop back and sling it down the field when he should be chucking short passes all game. And the Bills should exploit that heavily. Expect huge games in Weeks 16-17 from the Bills defense.
UPDATE: While they were smoked by the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14, it's important to note that the fully healthy Rams are an absolute nightmare matchup for opposing defenses. This shouldn't change your opinion of the Bills D/ST moving forward. The NFL is a heavily matchup-based league.
Green Bay Packers D/ST
The Green Bay Packers D/ST have quietly fought their way to become the third-ranked defense in fantasy football this season. That puts them in a great position to dominate their easy playoff schedule, which features the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, and Minnesota Vikings.
Fun game of 'Where the hell is McKinney bailing'
Lining up on LOS often in these pressure looks for Hafley - but can be ANYWHERE post snap. Nice to have fast/smart safeties back there in GB!
Packers defense is putting MUCH more mental stress on opponents so far thru 6 weeks pic.twitter.com/zipNr62AY9
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 16, 2024
Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is impressing in his first year with the team at this position by having his defenders move after the snap in a variety of ways. They're a talented group as well, with great players like cornerback Jaire Alexander, safety Xavier McKinney, and defensive end Rashan Gary.
But they've gotten good contributions from the majority of players on their unit, showing what a well-coached and disciplined defense they are. And their matchup with the Seahawks is juicy. Seattle general manager John Schneider has repeatedly refused to put together a competent offensive line during his tenure.
The Seahawks offensive line:
- Bradford leads all guards in sacks (6) and penalties (9).
- Forsythe missed 2 weeks and STILL leads the NFL in pressures allowed (35).
- Run game averaging 2.5 YPC since week 6.
- 7 sacks allowed
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards. pic.twitter.com/PNY12A1moG
— Seahawks Today (@TodaySeahawks) November 4, 2024
Credit where credit is due to their quarterback, Geno Smith, but expect Buffalo to rack up a ton of sacks in that game. And pressure tends to lead to more turnovers as well. We saw Green Bay stifle the Miami Dolphins run game in Week 12, holding them to just under 2.8 yards per carry. Expect a bad rushing day for Seahawks RBs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.
The matchup with the New Orleans Saints is similarly juicy. Injuries have decimated the Saints WR corps, leaving them with a 30-year-old Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their top option. The journeyman has had some nice moments but against far inferior defenses to Green Bay's.
MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING. WOW
pic.twitter.com/r9hx33sgyh— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) November 17, 2024
This play likely doesn't happen against a disciplined unit.
The last time the Packers faced the Vikings, who they'll take on again in Week 17, they scored a respectable seven fantasy points. They're so good at generating turnovers that they can overcome games where they allow lots of yards and points scored against them. They're a decent option that week but not as compelling.
UPDATE: As predicted, their Week 14 game with the Detroit Lions ended up being a shootout, but this was to be expected. You shouldn't be starting defenses against a powerful offense like the Lions have, anyway. This shouldn't move any needles.
Minnesota Vikings D/ST
The league's No. 1 defense won't have an easy time in Week 17. They'll have to face a highly talented and well-coached Packers offense with a vast array of weapons. Still, they scored nine fantasy points against their divisional rivals in Week 4. A fumble recovery and three interceptions aided in that total.
The Kamu Grugier-Hill interception of Jordan Love has me thinking:
Is this Grugier-Hill reading the situation and making the great play or is Brian Flores potentially installing modified rules when they run Tampa 2 when they see Dagger?
Maybe I'm overthinking things pic.twitter.com/VPG86Jxzw1
— Tyler Forness (@TheRealForno) October 1, 2024
The Vikes are a disciplined unit run well by defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Honestly, we don't hate starting them in this game. However, Week 15 against the Chicago Bears and Week 16 against Seattle present tantalizing opportunities for Minnesota to put up big points on the defensive side.
We've already discussed the Seahawks' offensive woes. Expect Flores' unit to pressure and sack Smith a lot. But the Bears are another fantastic matchup. They allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season, enabled by their inability to move the ball.
They did fire their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, and head coach, Matt Eberflus, though. Still, the offense struggled mightily against the Detroit Lions in Week 12 before injuries to DET's defensive group decimated them. The Vikings will feast on the Bears, and they're a great start throughout the playoffs.
UPDATE: The Vikings played reasonably well against the talented Atlanta Falcons offense, scoring seven points and snagging two interceptions. They now have intercepted opposing QBs 20 times this season. You should still plan on firing them up in Week 15 against the struggling Bears.
Kirk Cousins has 0 touchdowns and 8 interceptions over the last 4 games.
You drafted Michael Penix Jr. for this moment, make the switch Falcons.
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) December 8, 2024
The Seahawks absolutely smoked the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14, which could give people pause. However, the Vikings are great at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, and Seattle still has a terrible offensive line. They won't have such an easy time in Week 16 against the Vikes, so we'd still recommend starting Minny's D/ST in both Weeks 15 and 16.
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