RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series season will conclude this weekend at Phoenix Raceway, as the Cup Series Championship Race is set to take place at Phoenix Raceway at 3:00 pm ET. There are four drivers remaining in the Playoffs--Kyle Larson, William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Ryan Blaney--and the driver that finishes the highest of those four will be crowned the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.
Ever since NASCAR introduced its Playoffs format, one thing has happened on a regular basis with the finale race: the final four remaining drivers are typically the fastest. Part of the reasoning for this is that other drivers in the field go on "vacation mode" early, as they don't want to interfere with the guys fighting for the prestigious Championship.
Sportsbooks have taken notice of this as well, and that's why we are seeing some absolutely ridiculous betting lines for top-three, top-five, and top-10 finishes. However, many sportsbooks have simultaneously lengthened odds for the other drivers in the field, and this has created plenty of value betting lines.
The Early Bets To Make For Phoenix
We're going to focus on the top 10 betting lines early on in the week, as that is where the most value is right now--and there's plenty of it. Below are some of the top 10 bets that I have already personally made, in order of which ones I like the most.
Kevin Harvick Top 10 (-135) on Tipico - This line opened at -130 on Bet365, which I immediately took and placed one of my largest bets of the season. It has since moved to -150 on there, and that's still a good line to hit, but it's sitting at -135 on Tipico if you have access to that book. Harvick has finished inside the top 10 in every single Phoenix race for the last 10 years. That's 20 races. He's also shown top-five speed at most shorter, flat tracks this season.
Chase Elliott Top 10 (+240) on Bet365 - Chase missed the first Phoenix race this season due to his leg injury, but two of his teammates (Kyle Larson and William Byron) dominated the race while another one of his teammates (Alex Bowman) got his first top-10 finish at Phoenix in seven years. Elliott himself has been one of the best drivers here at Phoenix over the last four years, and has nine top-three Stage finishes in the last 14 Stages.
Chase Briscoe Top 10 (+240) on Bet365 - Briscoe has had an awful season, but he's a very good flat track racer--as evidenced by his top-five finish at Martinsville last weekend. Here at Phoenix, he's finished inside the top 10 in all three races with the NextGen car, and even won the first race here back in 2022.
Aric Almirola Top 10 (+550) on Bet365 - Aric Almirola will be walking away from the NASCAR Cup Series after this weekend's race, so it would only be fitting to see him go out with a good result. Short, flat tracks are where Almirola excels the most, and he had legitimate top-five speed at New Hampshire this year before running into issues. His last two results here at Phoenix have been duds but, before that, Almirola finished 13th or better in nine of the previous 10 races at this track.
Michael McDowell Top 10 (+2500) on BetFred - This longshot is definitely worth a sprinkle. Michael McDowell is not good at Phoenix--it's actually one of his worst tracks on the schedule--but he finished a career-best 13th here earlier this season and has results of 6th, 9th, and 13th at Richmond, Gateway, and New Hampshire this year, which are other short, flat tracks.
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