Best Ball ADP Late-Round Values - Wide Receiver

July 11, 2020

Phil Clark identifies wide receivers who could be ADP bargains and late-round draft sleepers in best ball fantasy football leagues for 2020.

As we continue our progression toward the highly-anticipated regular season, the team at RotoBaller continues to generate news, data-fueled analysis, and updated rankings that provide your pathway to draft preparations and roster modifications. That includes our collection of resources for owners who are participating in Best-Ball leagues.

Those of you who have embraced this highly popular format are already aware that the decisions you make during each round of your drafts are critical. Because the benefit of avoiding all forms of in-season roster management also removes your option of using a waiver wire if your players are sidelined, or fail to supply the level of production that you envisioned.

This also elevates the importance of each selection once your drafts have entered the later rounds. Any doubts regarding the significance of capitalizing on each opportunity throughout the entire selection process should be eviscerated by a reminder that wide receivers D.K. Metcalf (ADP 138), Deebo Samuel (ADP 169), DeVante Parker (ADP 194), D.J. Chark (ADP 234), A.J. Brown (ADP 246) and Terry McLaurin (ADP 282) all remained available after Round 12 of last August's draft process. Here are five receivers that should easily surpass the expectations of their ADPs in current FFPC drafts.

N'Keal Harry, New England Patriots

WR60, ADP: 175

New England secured Harry with the 32nd overall selection during 2019’s NFL draft. Several attributes provided the rationale for investing a first-round pick on the 6’4”, 220-pound receiver including his size, his production during his final two seasons at Arizona State (155 receptions/2,230 yards/17 touchdowns), and his proven ability to prevail in contested catch situations.

But his prospects of delivering a highly-productive rookie season were thwarted immediately when he encountered an ankle injury last August. He did not return from injured reserve until Week 11 and captured 12 of 24 targets for just 105 yards during his seven matchups. That tied him for second with Jakobi Meyers in both targets and receptions, while he trailed Meyers and Julian Edelman in receiving yards. However, he did tie for the team lead with James White in red zone targets during that span (6) and also led the Patriots with four targets inside the 10. This red zone usage provides a basis for optimism following what was primarily a forgettable rookie season.

New England Red Zone Targets 

He now enters 2020 with a legitimate opportunity to function in an integral role within a restructured New England passing attack. Harry will be positioned on the perimeter with a chance to capitalize on his physicality and his penchant for tracking throws that are launched in his area.

N'Keal Harry was on another level at Arizona State.

His five highest-graded plays?pic.twitter.com/c7We7RDSjt

— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 24, 2020

Harry’s prospects for a significant rise in usage and production improved with the addition of former NFL MVP Cam Newton. If Newton can navigate through a 16-game season with sustained health, then his presence can expand Harry’s potential for production. If Newton is sidelined during the year, then a New England aerial attack that is spearheaded by Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer would suppress Harry’s ceiling.

The 34-year old Edelman should function as Harry’s primary competition for targets after the 11-year veteran finished fourth in that category during 2019 (153). He has also averaged 9+ targets per game during six of his last seven seasons (2013-2019), even though a torn ACL sidelined him throughout 2017. But despite his favorable level of usage, Edelman will be operating in unfamiliar territory after working with Tom Brady throughout his career.

Mohamed Sanu was extracted from Atlanta in October, but a high-ankle sprain kept him from exceeding five targets in six of his eight matchups as a Patriot.  Second-year receiver Meyers remains in the theoretical mix after averaging 2.7 targets, 1.7 receptions, and 23.9 yards per game.

Harry is primed to dramatically improve upon the substandard results of his rookie season. However, there are an astronomical 59 receivers that are currently being drafted in Best-Ball leagues before he is finally chosen in Round 15. This is your opportunity to seize him at a minimal investment, which could become one of the most important decisions that you make during your roster construction.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants

WR42, ADP: 126

There are divergent opinions that are circulating within the fantasy community concerning Slayton’s projections for 2020. But regardless of whether he attains breakout status during his second season, there should be no hesitation in targeting him among your late-round options in the Best-Ball format.

Slayton collected 79 receptions for 1,605 yards during his final three seasons at Auburn, while assembling 1,313 of those yards during 2017-2018. His 20.3 yards per reception average during his collegiate career was achieved through consistent numbers that ranged between 19.1-22.2 within that three-year span. He also demonstrated his potential to operate as a vertical weapon by registering a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash during the 2019 NFL Combine. However, Hakeem Butler, Gary Jennings, Riley Ridley, and Miles Boykin were among the 17 receivers that were selected before Slayton during the NFL Draft (171st overall).

He performed on his first snaps in Week 3, after contending with a hamstring issue that sidelined him in Weeks 1-2. Slayton ultimately finished fourth among newcomers with a 76% snap count percentage, while performing on 92% of New York's offensive snaps from Weeks 6-13. He also led all first-year receivers in targeted air yards (14.5), which placed him 11^th overall.

Slayton also tied for first in touchdown receptions of 25+ yards, according to PFF

Most 25+ yard TD receptions in 2019:

▫️ Kenny Golladay - 5
▫️ Mecole Hardman - 5
▫️ Darius Slayton - 5 pic.twitter.com/M6I3lUTdJ1

— PFF (@PFF) July 1, 2020

He also finished seventh overall in touchdowns (8), which tied him with A.J. Brown for the lead among rookies in that category. Slayton also finished fourth among newcomers in targets (84), and fifth in yardage (740). Those yardage and touchdown totals both paced the Giants, as Slayton also led New York in air yards (1,119), % share of team’s air yards (23.8), average depth of target (14), and receptions of 20+ yards (12). He also accrued results that closely resembled the numbers that were attained by teammates Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate in other receiving categories.

Slayton also paced Giant receivers in offensive snaps (709), as he operated outside on 86.1% of those plays.  Tate performed inside on 80.8% of his 624 offensive snaps, while Shepard ran routes from the slot on 56.7% of his 602 plays. Slayton will accumulate opportunities in his role as a downfield weapon once again this season, while Shepard (9.9 aDOT) and Tate (9.7 aDOT) execute shorter routes.

Slayton also performed effectively when multiple concussions forced Shepard from the lineup for six matchups. That included Weeks 6-10 when Slayton captured 34 targets (6.8 per game) and generated a team-high four touchdowns. Slayton's aforementioned hamstring issue limited his availability to just two of the four contests in which Tate was suspended during September (PEDs). But his performances both with and without Shepard and Tate in New York's lineup combine with unquestioned big-play potential to elevate Slayton among your most viable options in Round 11 of current drafts.

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

WR49, ADP: 146

Reagor is currently the third receiver from the 2020 rookie class to be selected in Best-Ball drafts after CeeDee Lamb (WR40/ADP 118), and Jerry Jeudy (WR41/ADP124). Lamb's steady rise toward an elite tier is all but assured, while Jeudy's appealing blend of speed and route running excellence should eventually result in a prolific career. But both newcomers will be performing in environments that contain sizable competition for targets, while Reagor has been presented with an uncongested runway toward operating as the WR1 in Philadelphia.

Jalen Reagor recorded 2,572 yards from scrimmage on 183 plays at TCU, averaging 14 yards/play.

In addition to being a downfield threat, expect to see him on WR screens, jet sweeps, etc. pic.twitter.com/NUJcPguing

— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) May 16, 2020

Reagor became a logical candidate to lead Eagle wide receivers in multiple categories when the team selected him 21^st overall in April’s Draft.
The addition of Reagor allows Philadelphia to inject a much-needed vertical presence into the team’s passing attack. This favorable blend of unquestioned speed and consistent opportunity will place Reagor in position to ignite for massive gains, while overmatched opponents contend with his explosiveness. This also provides Reagor with a chance to operate with Carson Wentz, who can capitalize on his big-play capabilities. This is a significant development for Reagor after he performed in a TCU offense that ranked 61st in 2019 while averaging just 203.7 yards per game through the air.

Tight ends Zach Ertz (22.4%) and Dallas Goedert (14.4%) should match last season's combined target share (36.8%). However, Reagor should easily surpass Alshon Jeffery's 12.0% share that led Eagle wide receivers during 2019. He should also accrue numbers that exceed the output that will be assembled by Philadelphia's collection of incumbents at the position. Jeffery led the unit in targets (73/7.3 per game), receptions (43), receiving yards (490), and touchdowns (4) during 2019. However, reliability issues reemerged when a protracted Lisfranc issue limited him to just 18 targets, nine receptions and 137 yards from Weeks 10-17. DeSean Jackson captured eight of nine targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. But he managed just one five-yard reception from Weeks 2-17.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside’s discouraging season included being targeted in just eight matchups while collecting 10 receptions for 169 yards. Amid the disappointing performances from receivers that were expected to function as integral offensive components, Greg Ward rose from irrelevance to lead Philly’s wide receivers in targets (40), receptions (28), and yardage (254) from Weeks 12-17. But the explosive Reagor should elevate beyond the returning veterans, and quickly develop into a weekly starter.

He will not be the beneficiary of extensive practice time during this restricted offseason. But his home run potential will enable him to generate significant gains while remaining actively involved as a consistent weapon for Wentz. The Eagles have already demonstrated their commitment to Reagor through the use of a Round-1 selection. This will boost his potential to accumulate highly productive outings in the Best-Ball format. That provides your motivation to deploy a Round 13 pick on the dynamic rookie.

Breshad Perriman, New York Jets

WR62, ADP: 177

After Perriman registered a 4.25 in the 40 during his 2015 Pro Day, his blend of speed, size (6’2”, 215-pounds), and athletic ability provided the rationale for Baltimore to utilize their first-round selection on the former Central Florida Knight. Unfortunately, the script for the early portion of his career contained a steady stream of disappointment.

A torn ACL kept him affixed to the sideline through 2015, while he averaged just 50.5 targets, 21.5 receptions, and 288 yards during 2016-2017. After being released by Washington in September of 2018, Perriman resurfaced with Cleveland. He entered Week 14 with just eight receptions for 107 yards, before flashing his big-play capabilities during the Browns’ final four matchups (12 targets/8 receptions/233 yards/21.5 yards-per-target). That late-season surge compelled Cleveland to sign Perriman on a one-year contract. However, that deal evaporated hours later when the Browns traded for Odell Beckham. Perriman ultimately reemerged as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, which launched his career resurrection.

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FPFF_Jets%2Fstatus%2F1278715822597378050&widget=Tweet

His contributions did not occur immediately, as Perriman was involved on 33% of Tampa’s snaps from Weeks 1-12, while averaging just 3.6 targets, 1.2 receptions, and 15.4 yards per game. However, hamstring issues that were incurred by Chris Godwin and Mike Evans elevated the 26-year old Perriman into sizable responsibilities during December. He responded by delivering on his long-standing potential to function as a dynamic vertical threat, while exploding for 506 yards and an NFL-best five touchdowns from Weeks 13-17. Perriman also assembled the first three 100-yard performances of his career from Weeks 15-17, while leading the league in standard scoring (19.7 points per game), and touchdowns (4), and finishing second only to Julio Jones in yardage during those contests (349).

His massive statistical surge in December also enticed the Jets to secure Perriman with a one-year contract. He will join a New York passing attack that ranked an anemic 29^th during 2019, while averaging only 194,4 yards per game. However, only Arizona targeted their wide receivers with greater frequency than the Jets in their first season with Adam Gase as the architect of their offense (66.7%). Robby Anderson’s 96 targets from last season are also available for redistribution.

This will supply Perriman with the prospects of operating as New York’s primary receiving option on the perimeter. He will run routes opposite rookie Denzel Mims, who must navigate the unique hurdles that will impede offseason preparation. Dependable Jamison Crowder has garnered 99+ targets in three of his last four seasons, and will absorb opportunities once again in the slot.

Since Perriman’s professional career largely contained discouraging results before his dynamic sequence in 2019, skepticism that he can sustain a WR1 role is understandable. However, his home run capabilities currently remain available until Round 15 of most drafts. This should eliminate your reluctance to include this potential difference maker on your roster.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers

WR64, ADP: 186

Lazard led Iowa State in receptions (196), receiving yards (2,767), and receiving touchdowns (23) for three consecutive years (2015-2017). That includes his final season with the Cyclones when his numbers (71 receptions/941 yards/10 touchdowns) exceeded the output of Hakeem Butler. However, those results did not compel an NFL team to select the 6’5”, 225-pound Lazard during the 2018 NFL Draft. The sluggish pace of his career continued as he was limited to one reception for seven yards during a forgettable rookie season, and failed to register a catch through Week 5 of 2019.

But he performed on 65% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps from Weeks 7-17 and finished second among Packer wide receivers in targets (52), receptions (35) yardage (477), and touchdowns (3) during his final 11 games. His numbers also surpassed Geronimo Allison (38 targets/24 receptions/183 yards) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (24 targets/9 receptions/217 yards), and Jake Kumerow (18 targets/10 receptions/188 yards) during that span. Lazard also accrued 702 air yards, eclipsed 65 yards in three of those matchups, and generated a season-high 103 yards in Week 13.

Packers' No. 2 WR is no longer a mystery. It's Allen Lazard.

Snap counts the last 3 games of 2019:

Davante Adams: 195
Allen Lazard: 171
Geronimo Allison: 119
Jake Kumerow: 56
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 38

— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) December 30, 2019

Despite his unexpected rise to relevance, it appeared unlikely that the Packers would enter 2020 with the same receiving arsenal that complemented Davante Adams during 2019. But even though an assortment of free agents could have provided a boost to Aaron Rodgers and the team’s aerial efforts, the Packers limited their involvement in free agency to the uninspiring signing of Devin Funchess. That appeared to indicate that Green Bay would invest at least one early-round draft selection on a wide receiver during the NFL Draft. However, the team inexplicably used their initial pick on former Utah State signal caller Jordan Love, and followed up that selection by seizing A.J. Dillon in Round 2. The Packers then accomplished the incomprehensible by ignoring the wide receiver position during all nine of their draft selections.

The decision to eschew the position will not be beneficial to Rodgers, who finished eighth in attempts during 2019 (569). He had placed fifth (2018) and fourth (2016) during his two previous 16-game seasons, and Green Bay’s expanding commitment to the run make it unlikely that Rodgers will resurface among the league leaders in that category. However, these factors supply the incentive for you to target Lazard at his modest ADP, as Green Bay's receiving unit that contains a dearth of reliability beyond Adams and Lazard. Allison will be running routes for the Lions. Valdez-Scantling is experiencing a sustained career free fall, and Funchess is at best a marginal threat to pilfer targets. This places Lazard in position to absorb the second highest target share behind Adams, while providing you with an opportunity to attain outstanding value during Round 16 of your drafts.

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