Bell's Best Bets - Premium MLB Betting Picks for 4/6/2021

What's up, RotoBallers! Welcome to Week 2 of Bell's Best Bets. If you're reading this, it means you've decided to stick with me despite a lackluster first few days of the MLB season. As my numbers displayed last season and as many MLB handicappers have stated, betting baseball everyday is a GRIND. There will be low points, especially when we lean on trends and angles that may have changed over the offseason. But the hot streaks will come, and that's where the hard work and grind pays off!

In case you never caught my intro article, my name is Tommy Bell (@BellRoto on Twitter), and I'll be publishing a daily article with premium MLB betting analysis and plays every day of the baseball season, barring some days off.

I'll do my absolute best to post all of my plays by 10 am each day, and I'll update and add any plays as needed on Twitter @BellRoto. I'll also keep a running tab there and banter with my followers whenever possible, so come join the fun (and I recommend turning on alerts)!

Recap for 4/5/2021

Definitely a bittersweet day yesterday. The card came together really easily, and I felt fantastic about each of the three plays. My read on the Blue Jays against Folty and the Rangers was near-perfect, which helps keep the morale high. Unfortunately Jose Urena imploded in the 2nd inning, and the Tigers couldn't wake the bats up until the ninth inning. Then later on the Cardinals put up a three-spot in the top of the first before going absolutely cold, and the Marlins bats went back to their dormant ways, really struggling to string hits together.

Even still, the process feels strong, and we're keeping things simple on Tuesday by trusting arms and lineups that tend to provide more positive results than negatives!

YTD: 9-12 record and -4.03 units

MLB Plays for 4/6/2021

Washington Nationals First 5 (-130) vs. Atlanta Braves

Risking 0.65 units

The shortness of this line shocked me right off the bat, as I imagined Scherzer and company being at least a -150 favorite with the Braves' back-end starter taking the bump for the Nationals' home opener (it was -120 as of 8:30 am EST). Then I realized how many prominent names were already revealed as unavailable due to the Covid protocols going on for the Nats. The good news is, Max Scherzer was not one of them, and that's pretty important.

Scherzer is a guy who pitches better when his emotions are in it, and he knows this game is going to be on his shoulders with a bit of a depleted offense and the closer, Brad Hand, unavailable. Pair that with the fact that key bats like Juan Soto, Victor Robles, Carter Kieboom, and Ryan Zimmerman will still be available, and I get a little less worried.

While I will say that the Nationals (especially when healthy) should match up slightly better against right-handers on the year than lefties like Drew Smyly, I don't think I can make that assumption on day 1 of their season in these circumstances. Smyly was surprisingly solid in 2020, but it feels like there's some regression coming, and perhaps getting hit hard during a few of his Spring Training outings was the start of that.

We're going to ride the emotion of the first five innings that will include a revved up Scherzer, at least two Soto at-bats, and 5,000 DC fans who couldn't be happier to just see a baseball game being played. When depth and bullpen becomes an issue in the later innings, hopefully we'll already have gotten our victory.

Houston Astros (-115) at Los Angeles Angels

Risking 1.15 units

This one should be a bit simpler than the debacle above. However, the premise is similar. We have a huge advantage at starting pitcher with Zack Greinke against what sounds like will be Dylan Bundy instead of Griffin Canning. While Bundy's stuff looked fine in his first start against the White Sox, I am not ready to upgrade him to something better than average at this point. And we know what Greinke can bring on a good night, even against a stiff lineup like the one LA has been trotting out.

I'll still give the offensive edge to Houston as well, as their bats have looked 10 times better than 2020 just five games into this season. Their bullpen was what blew it last night, but their best reliever, Ryan Pressly, didn't pitch, which should leave him available to secure Greinke's win on Tuesday. The Angels used a ton of bullpen arms on Monday as well, as Jose Quintana went just 3.1 innings. I'll take the Astros on the full game with a few different advantages in their direction.

New York Mets First 5 (-140) at Philadelphia Phillies

Risking 1.4 units

Well, Mets fans know the pain of Monday night's loss season opening loss to Philly ALL too well. Jacob deGrom pitched an absolute gem for six innings, and then their bullpen and defense collapsed to lose him the win. All but one starter recorded a hit for New York yesterday, so it was at least good to see their bats come to play in their 2021 debut.

If you think I'm going to rely on the Mets bullpen after their storied history and that crap they just pulled on Monday behind deGrom, you're nuts. However, I am a Marcus Stroman fan, and he looked like a guy who's ready to be the 1B to this rotation during Spring Training. This is a huge start for him to begin his new slate following a 2020 opt out, and the Phillies lineup hasn't done much to change my opinion coming into 2021 that their offense is not as dangerous as many hoped it would be when they brought this band together.

Getting lost in all of this? Chase Anderson walks too many batters and lets up a good chunk of hard contact on his balls in play (36.4% in 2019 and 2020 combined). I am looking for the Mets to put up 3-4 runs in the first few innings, allowing Stroman to coast to a nice first 5 victory for us!

Reminders:

• REMEMBER to follow me on Twitter @BellRoto and turn the alerts on to get any added bets throughout the day!
• Link to Premium Sports Betting Tools is here
• Promo Code at checkout is BELL for 10% off

Featured Sportsbook Promo Offers

All new sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Check out all of the sportsbooks and their bonus offers: