Bell's Best Bets - Premium MLB Betting Picks for 4/5/2021

What's up, RotoBallers! Welcome to Week 2 of Bell's Best Bets. If you're reading this, it means you've decided to stick with me despite a lackluster first few days of the MLB season. As my numbers displayed last season and as many MLB handicappers have stated, betting baseball everyday is a GRIND. There will be low points, especially when we lean on trends and angles that may have changed over the offseason. But the hot streaks will come, and that's where the hard work and grind pays off!

In case you never caught my intro article, my name is Tommy Bell (@BellRoto on Twitter), and I'll be publishing a daily article with premium MLB betting analysis and plays every day of the baseball season, barring some days off.

I'll do my absolute best to post all of my plays by 10 am each day, and I'll update and add any plays as needed on Twitter @BellRoto. I'll also keep a running tab there and banter with my followers whenever possible, so come join the fun (and I recommend turning on alerts)!

Recap for 4/4/2021

Feels great to have a nice, easy winning day heading into a new week. A 4-0, 3.6 unit sweep would've been an amazing bounce back, but the White Sox bats just didn't come alive for us like I hoped they would, though the Angels certainly gave them plenty of chances!

If you weren't able to get the extra 0.5u bet on the Cleveland Indians live ML, that probably means you don't have alerts turned on for my tweets @BellRoto. I highly recommend that, because while I don't use the live betting feature in MLB often, I like having the option when a game feels like it's going to turn any moment. You could be sitting with an extra 0.6u in your pocket this morning if you were on board with me!

I'm feeling really good about the plays for Monday and my process/mindset moving forward, and I really appreciate those of you who are with me on the Premium side of things despite a shaky first few days. Let's make some cash!

YTD: 8-10 record and -2.63 units

MLB Plays for 4/5/2021

Detroit Tigers +0.5 First 5 (-125) vs. Minnesota Twins

Risking 1.25 units

A few factors led me to this one. Breaking it down this way might be simpler and more organized:

1. Tigers bats look much improved with the addition of guys like Nomar Mazara, Jonathan Schoop, and Wilson Ramos. Miguel Cabrera should be back in the lineup after a day off yesterday. I think this offense matches up well with Twins, especially if Byron Buxton sits after leaving the game due to a leg injury yesterday.
2. Both pitchers are far from trustworthy, and I can't imagine a lot of strikeouts being racked up early in this one. However, Jose Urena does a better job of limiting hard contact in the air. Just trying to avoid the home run in the first five innings to feel good about this one!
3. Lastly, this one is minor, but the Twins played an afternoon tilt in Milwaukee yesterday, and had to travel immediately to Detroit to then play a day game on Monday due to chilly April conditions at night in Michigan. Tigers played earlier and got to sleep in their own beds. No schedule change there! Advantage to the Tigers in the first handful of innings, and a tie game after 4.5 frames gets us a win!

Toronto Blue Jays (-160) at Texas Rangers

Risking 1.6 units

This is about the ceiling of what I feel comfortable laying on a typical MLB money line. Despite the hefty juice, I don't see many avenues to the Rangers winning the series opener on Monday afternoon. For starters, Steven Matz has looked amazing in Spring Training since putting on a Toronto uniform. The lefty has always had the stuff to succeed, so let's see if the Blue Jays pitching staff has unlocked the full gambit of his abilities! Pair that with the fact that the ONLY two dangerous bats I see in the Rangers lineup (David Dahl and Joey Gallo) are lefties, and it appears that Texas will struggle to score runs.

Then we have the Mike Foltynewicz reclamation project on the other side. Coming off an awful 2020 season, Folty looked horrendous in Spring Training. This deep Jays lineup with up-and-coming stars everywhere you look is not a pretty sight for a pitcher who used to rely on his fastball to get by dudes, considering his fastball doesn't seem to get by dudes anymore.

I don't hate the -1.5 run line either in this spot, but I'm not quite sure what the Jays' bullpen situation is like coming off a tight series in the Bronx, so I'm just looking for a win here in case things get messy in the last few frames. All aboard the Jays!

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins over 8 runs (-115)

Risking 1.15 units

This one's pretty simple. Let me break it down very quickly:

1. I don't trust Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers at all. I especially don't trust him against a gauntlet of right-handed power bats in Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Paul DeJong. That's step one of this "over" formula.
2. The Marlins lineup woke up nicely on Saturday night, scoring 12 runs on the Rays' Rich Hill and company. I actually like the complexion of this lineup even better against righties, when Corey Dickerson can bat leadoff. I think we'll quickly find that the ancillary pieces on this team like Garrett Cooper, Lewis Brinson, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are capable enough to put up runs in bunches!
3. Lastly, while I think Daniel Ponce de Leon is a pretty capable starter in St. Louis, I don't want to back him in this spot for one strange reason: He just faced this Marlins team FOUR (4!!!) times during Spring Training. That's absurd!! Miami scored six runs total off of his 12.2 innings of work over those four appearances. Just the familiarity with his motion and arsenal should boost this o/u by a run or two if you ask me.

I think we see a close contest here, and if the score hits 4-4 in the seventh inning or something, our sweat is done! I loved coming across this play late Sunday night, and it feels even better on Monday morning. Let's get that elusive sweep today!!

Reminders:

• REMEMBER to follow me on Twitter @BellRoto and turn the alerts on to get any added bets throughout the day!
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