Bell's Best Bets - Premium MLB Betting Picks for 4/4/2021

Happy Opening Week, RotoBallers! I'm sure I can speak for all of you when I say that I'm thrilled to have a full season of baseball on tap to grind through this spring, summer, and fall. What a refreshing feeling!

If you missed my intro article on Tuesday, my name is Tommy Bell (@BellRoto on Twitter), and I'll be publishing a daily article with premium MLB betting analysis and plays every day of the baseball season, barring some days off.

I'll be posting my plays by 10 am each day, and I'll update and add any plays as needed on Twitter @BellRoto. I'll also keep a running tab there and banter with my followers whenever possible, so come join the fun (and I recommend turning on alerts)!

MLB Opening Week Intro

Before we continue our plays to start the first week of the season, keep in mind that the first couple of weeks of the MLB grind are very much a time of learning and adjustment to the trends and analysis we used from last season. A lot of what I lean on in the first handful of plays is how my gut says a team will look, what I know hasn't changed much from last season, and how the market seems to be treating a team. Then, as we begin to get a larger sample size of statistics and performances from 2021, we can factor those things in more and more. PLEASE always bet responsibly, especially early in the season, and NEVER wager more than you're comfortable losing.

If you EVER have any questions on a specific game or just my process in general, don't hesitate to reach on Twitter @BellRoto. Getting to throw different stances, angles, and opinions back and forth with followers and fellow sports bettors is by far my favorite aspect of incorporating Twitter into this series. Let's play ball!!

As a reminder, this series will be free access for all readers for the first three four days of the season. Starting Monday, only Premium Betting subscribers will get access to Bell's Best Bets. To sign up, follow the link here, and be sure to use the promo code BELL for 10% off. Reach out on Twitter with any questions or concerns!

Recap for 4/3/2021

Indians can't hit Tigers pitching (Part 2). Burnes and Brew Crew get out-dueled by Berrios and Twins bullpen. Flexen uses his KBO refined curveball to flex on Giants offense. Good news is my Musgrove/Padres prediction was spot on!

As I mentioned on Twitter, this is clearly not the way I want to start the 2021 MLB Season, but it's worth nothing this is exactly the same spot we were in last season, right before a 25-unit swing in the other direction. Today's article will be free access once again to hopefully take one step in the right direction, and I hope you'll join me for the bounce back coming next week and beyond!

Less talk about the bad, let's spend more time grinding for Sunday!

YTD: 5-9 record and -4.23 units

MLB Plays for 4/4/2021

Cleveland Indians (-130) at Detroit Tigers

Risking 1.3 units

Three stances lead me to a vulnerable position to get my gut punched by the Indians for a second day in a row. First, Aaron Civale should have a better start than left Tarik Skubal. Civale's soft contact approach should play well at Comerica Park, and while Skubal can rack up strikeouts on a good day, his hard contact tendencies can cause him issues on bad-to-normal days. Secondly, the Tigers starting lineup has even less punch than yesterday, with Miguel Cabrera taking a seat Sunday. I'll be very surprised if the bottom half of their order (6-9) does any damage. Lastly, I'm simply betting against the Detroit Tigers (yes, the TIGERS) sweeping the Indians to start the season. I get that the Indians had their offensive troubles last season, and they've lost the face of their franchise this year, but there are enough proven hitters in this lineup to get the job done today, and that's all we're looking for.

Minnesota Twins F5 (-120) at Milwaukee Brewers

Risking 1.2 units

This is strictly a play on Michael Pineda as a strong starting pitcher against Adrian Houser who I rate much lower. While I still think the Brewers bats provide them a bit of an advantage over Minnesota, the pitching advantage trumps that in this spot. I also much prefer the F5 here because of Alex Colome working twice already and potentially getting the day off in the Twins' bullpen. Even if he doesn't, the Brewers combination of Hader and others gives me pause on the Twins for the full game, as I would give Milwaukee a boost in the late innings of a tie ball game.

Chicago White Sox (EVEN) at Los Angeles Angels

Risking 1 unit

I've made my stance known on the offensive comparisons between the White Sox and the Angels already over the past few days. That doesn't change here, as the Sox should still hold an advantage barring any nights off (which seems doubtful on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball). Dylan Cease takes the mound for the White Sox, which I feel pretty good about despite his shaky 2020. His stuff is good, and he's a smart pitcher who I believe is in for a bit of a bounce back in 2021. The story of the night though will be Shohei Ohtani pitching and hitting for the Halos.

While I do buy in to Ohtani's ability as a pitcher and a hitter as a whole in the general sense, I'm interested to see how his opening start will go after playing the full series, including a DH start on Saturday night. He's certainly young and talented enough to pitch a great game here while throwing in a home run to boot, but I want to see it before I go making him a -120 favorite against a capable pitcher and a very dangerous White Sox lineup. We're going with the Chi-Town Sox on Sunday night!

Reminders:

• Link to Premium Sports Betting Tools is here
• Promo Code at checkout is BELL for 10% off

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